What is the “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” market asking?

It asks whether the following will happen: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.

What do the Yes and No prices mean?

Right now Yes trades at 16.5¢ and No at 83.5¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 16.5% for Yes and 83.5% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.

When does this market close?

Trading is scheduled to close on Jan 1, 2027 UTC. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?

24h volume ($253.55K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours; liquidity ($757.44K) is the dollar value resting in the order book. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.

Who holds the biggest positions in this market?

Vultax loaded 1,000 public holder wallets for this market; the largest ten hold 39.3% of the loaded shares. The Holders view lists them by size on each side, and every wallet links to its trader profile.

Where does this data come from and how fresh is it?

Prices, the order book, holders and the trade tape come from Polymarket's public order book and data API. Vultax records each observation with its own timestamp (market facts last updated Sep 21, 7:53 PM UTC) and shows a value as unavailable rather than as zero when a source has not answered.

Can I trade this market on Vultax?

No. Vultax is a research and paper-trading terminal; it does not execute orders. The trade controls open the official market on Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027) or the Vultax predictions monitor, where you can track the market and paper trade it.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Polymarket odds & analytics

Predictions Analytics

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Polymarket odds & analytics | Vultax

Market referencewill-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027Updated 1m ago

politicsActive

Closes Jan 1, 2027 UTCmilitary-strikespolitics

Yes

16.5%

83.5%

Buy Yes 16.5¢Buy No 83.5¢

24h Volume

$253.5K

Liquidity

$757.4K

Closes

Jan 1, 2027 UTC

Yes price

16.5¢

Market actionRead-only Polymarket handoff.

Yes

16.5%

83.5%

24h volume

$253.55K

Vultax does not execute orders. These controls open the official Polymarket market or route back into the Vultax predictions terminal.

Trade

buy Yes· 16.5¢

Open in terminal$253.55K 24h vol

Overview Prices Holders Trades

Source Evidence

Evidence coverage

Items

Fetched

Latest

1m ago

Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.

Depth

Spread

1.0%

Observed

1m ago

Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.

Trading stateMarket usability at the displayed observation.

Market state

Active

Order book

Captured book available

Observed Yes

16.5%

Orderbook depth should be read with the displayed bid/ask, liquidity, and observation time.

Holder depthCapped public top-holder sample.

Rows loaded

1,000

Wallets

1,000

Top 10 share

39%

Yes / No shares

7.17M / 7.25M

Public holders are loaded to the current Data API cap: 500 rows per outcome.

Recent tapeLatest public market trades.

Trades loaded

500

Wallets

277

Loaded notional

Open market positionsProvider-reported rows from the displayed market-position observation.

Trader	Outcome	Shares	Avg entry	Cost basis	Last trade
TheQuietRisk	Yes	1.06M	23.5%	$1.26M
xm39	Yes	1.01M	18.1%	$2.19M

Questions

Questions about this market

What is the “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” market asking?: It asks whether the following will happen: Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Traders buy Yes shares if they think it will and No shares if they think it will not.
What do the Yes and No prices mean?: Right now Yes trades at 16.5¢ and No at 83.5¢. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so its price is the market's implied probability: 16.5% for Yes and 83.5% for No. The two prices add up to about one dollar.
When does this market close?: Trading is scheduled to close on Jan 1, 2027 UTC. After the close no new trades are accepted and the outcome is settled by the resolution source.
How does this market resolve?: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
What is the difference between volume, liquidity and open interest?: 24h volume ($253.55K) is the dollar value of shares traded in the last 24 hours; liquidity ($757.44K) is the dollar value resting in the order book. Volume measures activity, liquidity measures how easily you can trade, and open interest measures how much is at stake.
Who holds the biggest positions in this market?

Top holders by valueReturned holders ranked by current holding value. Profit and win rate are unavailable for this sample.

Trader	Current holding value
RenanPresidente.	$536.48K
LulaVaiPerder	$478.21K
denizz	$309.34K
Vilgefortz	$234.63K
rdba	$208.75K
scout	$200.4K
TheQuietRisk	$174.3K
xm39	$166.34K
nonkenny90	$139.96K
Serene-Decision	$135.69K
SecondWindCapital	$135.17K
Tigerofthehood	$134.35K