Analytics
The cohort performance summary keeps its original period. These positions are a separate Polymarket observation and do not establish complete position history.
A complete provider position result is unavailable. Missing positions and amounts are not shown as zero holdings.
Profile detail last fetched just now. Trade times and chart dates show when activity occurred.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | No | 4.59K | $0.576 | $2.78K | +$131.86 |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 569.66 | $0.680 | $387.37 | 14h ago |
 |
| No |
| 3K |
| $0.850 |
| $2.57K |
| +$15 |
 Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | No | 2.17K | $0.857 | $2.12K | +$254.85 |
 Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 2K | $0.880 | $1.75K | -$10 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026? | No | 1.96K | $0.727 | $1.44K | +$16.54 |
 Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year? | No | 1.45K | $0.930 | $1.36K | +$7.26 |
| Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | No | 1.5K | $0.850 | $1.31K | +$28.36 |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | 5.24K | $0.652 | $1.07K | -$2.34K |
 Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 1.4K | $0.643 | $1.03K | +$129 |
 Will Alberta join the US? | No | 1K | $0.951 | $975.5 | +$24.5 |
 Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | 1K | $0.870 | $945 | +$75 |
 Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 1K | $0.930 | $925 | -$5 |
| Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? | No | 1.22K | $0.623 | $863.13 | +$100.17 |
 Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? | No | 1.14K | $0.720 | $806.5 | -$17.14 |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 90% or higher? | No | 690.4 | $0.897 | $656.57 | +$37.07 |
 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | Yes | 635 | $0.861 | $542.93 | -$3.52 |
 Will Nicolás Maduro be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year? | Yes | 7.04K | $0.487 | $500.05 | -$2.93K |
 Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | Yes | 599.99 | $0.770 | $482.99 | +$21 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 500 | $0.710 | $360 | +$5 |
| Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? | No | 5.21K | $0.348 | $338.68 | -$1.48K |
 Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? | No | 345.75 | $0.910 | $330.19 | +$15.56 |
 Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? | No | 350.01 | $0.890 | $320.26 | +$8.75 |
 Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 400 | $0.600 | $258 | +$18 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026? | No | 389.71 | $0.561 | $231.88 | +$13.34 |
 Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | No | 1.28K | $0.397 | $230.8 | -$278.55 |
| buy |
| 500 |
| $0.710 |
| $355 |
| 2d ago |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?No | buy | 1K | $0.988 | $988 | 5d ago |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 672.95 | $0.763 | $513.74 | 6d ago |
| Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 3.41K | $0.101 | $343.81 | 6d ago |
 Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes | sell | 810.06 | $0.083 | $67.03 | 6d ago |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No | buy | 1K | $0.850 | $850 | 6d ago |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No | buy | 1K | $0.850 | $850 | 6d ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?No | buy | 1K | $0.988 | $988 | 6d ago |
 Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026?Yes | sell | 214.63 | $0.950 | $203.92 | 7d ago |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?Yes | sell | 2.78K | $0.840 | $2.34K | 7d ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 2, 2026?Yes | buy | 1.87K | $0.084 | $156.45 | 7d ago |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 1.46K | $0.198 | $288.7 | 7d ago |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?Yes | buy | 856.89 | $0.185 | $158.91 | 7d ago |
 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?No | sell | 916.06 | $0.820 | $751.17 | 7d ago |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?Yes | buy | 1.5K | $0.187 | $280.78 | 7d ago |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?No | sell | 374.99 | $0.885 | $332 | 8d ago |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 3.97K | $0.450 | $1.79K | 8d ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 15, 2026?Yes | buy | 312.93 | $0.545 | $170.57 | 8d ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 9, 2026?Yes | buy | 177.02 | $0.330 | $58.42 | 8d ago |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No | sell | 2K | $0.840 | $1.68K | 8d ago |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?Yes | buy | 9.02K | $0.326 | $2.94K | 8d ago |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No | sell | 2K | $0.840 | $1.68K | 8d ago |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Yes | buy | 3.61K | $0.042 | $150.72 | 8d ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026?Yes | buy | 3.38K | $0.138 | $467.61 | 8d ago |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 2, 2026?Yes | buy | 2.04K | $0.019 | $38.62 | 8d ago |
| Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?No | buy | 250 | $0.890 | $222.5 | 9d ago |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Yes | buy | 35 | $0.870 | $30.45 | 9d ago |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?No | buy | 1K | $0.830 | $830 | 11d ago |
| Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?Yes | buy | 30 | $0.860 | $25.8 | 11d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?No | buy | 500 | $0.890 | $445 | 14d ago |
 Will Oliver Tree be the #1 searched passing on Google this year?No | buy | 140.22 | $0.630 | $88.34 | 14d ago |
| Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 385 | $0.600 | $231 | 14d ago |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No | buy | 900 | $0.840 | $756 | 15d ago |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?Yes | buy | 6.98K | $0.487 | $3.39K | 15d ago |
 Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Yes | sell | 1.5K | $0.480 | $720 | 16d ago |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No | buy | 500 | $0.840 | $420 | 17d ago |
| Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 743.03 | $0.580 | $430.96 | 17d ago |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 345.75 | $0.910 | $314.63 | 17d ago |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?No | buy | 494.6 | $0.734 | $363.06 | 19d ago |
| Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 90% or higher?No | buy | 690.4 | $0.897 | $619.5 | 19d ago |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 389.71 | $0.561 | $218.54 | 22d ago |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 474.83 | $0.220 | $104.46 | 22d ago |
| Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 90 | $0.855 | $76.95 | 22d ago |
 Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No | sell | 2.05K | $0.181 | $371.95 | 25d ago |
 Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?No | buy | 300 | $0.940 | $282 | 27d ago |
 Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in August?No | buy | 400 | $0.930 | $372 | 27d ago |
 Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?No | sell | 3.17 | $0.080 | $0.25 | Aug 4, 2026 |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes | buy | 1K | $0.640 | $640 | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?Yes | buy | 499.99 | $0.680 | $339.99 | Aug 2, 2026 |