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| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 2.55K | $0.813 | $2.18K | +$108.05 |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in August?No | buy | 150.72 | $0.693 | $104.45 | 19d ago |
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| No |
| 2.2K |
| $0.924 |
| $2.15K |
| +$118.21 |
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 3.95K | $0.371 | $888.75 | -$577.28 |
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | No | 721.25 | $0.886 | $681.58 | +$42.62 |
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1.1K | $0.755 | $636.9 | -$193.6 |
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 779.82 | $0.841 | $633.21 | -$22.66 |
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | 3K | $0.375 | $585 | -$539.49 |
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? | No | 475 | $0.837 | $471.44 | +$73.94 |
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | No | 400.1 | $0.760 | $374.09 | +$70.02 |
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? | No | 399.98 | $0.867 | $355.98 | +$9 |
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | No | 893.99 | $0.295 | $353.13 | +$89.19 |
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 20K | $0.012 | $310 | +$62.16 |
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 800 | $0.611 | $268 | -$221 |
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | No | 300 | $0.800 | $238.5 | -$1.5 |
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 10,000 in 2026? | No | 364 | $0.503 | $216.58 | +$33.43 |
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | Yes | 200 | $0.910 | $195 | +$13 |
Fed rate hike in 2026? | No | 642.7 | $0.439 | $189.6 | -$92.5 |
Will GameStop acquire eBay? | No | 200 | $0.845 | $185 | +$16 |
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | No | 160.25 | $0.964 | $155.36 | +$0.82 |
Iran Nuke before 2027? | No | 150 | $0.903 | $142.65 | +$7.2 |
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | No | 600 | $0.237 | $129 | -$13 |
Kash Patel out by December 31? | Yes | 499.99 | $0.384 | $117.5 | -$74.5 |
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | No | 1.6K | $0.255 | $114.4 | -$293.69 |
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 490.72 | $0.088 | $112.87 | +$69.7 |
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? | Yes | 1.2K | $0.097 | $102 | -$15 |
| buy |
| 249.99 |
| $0.809 |
| $202.24 |
| 19d ago |
Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?Yes | buy | 50 | $0.360 | $18 | 22d ago |
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes | sell | 50.07 | $0.002 | $0.1 | 28d ago |
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes | buy | 15K | $0.012 | $180 | 28d ago |
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No | buy | 150 | $0.850 | $127.5 | 28d ago |
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No | buy | 120 | $0.850 | $102 | 28d ago |
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No | buy | 200 | $0.850 | $170 | 28d ago |
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 14, 2026?Yes | buy | 340 | $0.130 | $44.2 | 28d ago |
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.870 | $87 | 29d ago |
Will Inde Navarrette win Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?No | buy | 23.7 | $0.800 | $18.96 | 29d ago |
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 20 | $0.800 | $16 | 29d ago |
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?No | buy | 50 | $0.800 | $40 | Aug 10, 2026 |
Will Ralph Norman win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?No | buy | 99.99 | $0.680 | $67.99 | Aug 10, 2026 |
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 18 | $0.850 | $15.3 | Aug 8, 2026 |
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?No | buy | 47.61 | $0.532 | $25.33 | Aug 8, 2026 |
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?Yes | buy | 13.45 | $0.021 | $0.28 | Aug 8, 2026 |
Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 50 | $0.973 | $48.65 | Aug 6, 2026 |
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Yes | sell | 149.99 | $0.550 | $82.49 | Aug 6, 2026 |
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?Yes | buy | 50 | $0.230 | $11.5 | Aug 6, 2026 |
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 100 | $0.280 | $28 | Aug 5, 2026 |
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?No | buy | 10 | $0.260 | $2.6 | Aug 4, 2026 |
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?No | buy | 20 | $0.130 | $2.6 | Aug 4, 2026 |
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Yes | buy | 50 | $0.440 | $22 | Aug 4, 2026 |
Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?No | buy | 50 | $0.510 | $25.5 | Aug 3, 2026 |
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?Yes | buy | 250 | $0.023 | $5.75 | Aug 3, 2026 |
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?No | buy | 46.71 | $0.783 | $36.56 | Aug 1, 2026 |
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?No | buy | 50 | $0.801 | $40.05 | Aug 1, 2026 |
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?Yes | buy | 9.74 | $0.680 | $6.62 | Aug 1, 2026 |
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Yes | buy | 10.01 | $0.971 | $9.72 | Jul 31, 2026 |
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?No | buy | 5 | $0.976 | $4.88 | Jul 31, 2026 |
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 400 | $0.024 | $9.6 | Jul 31, 2026 |
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 400 | $0.025 | $10 | Jul 31, 2026 |
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?No | buy | 100 | $0.440 | $44 | Jul 30, 2026 |
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?Yes | sell | 15 | $0.002 | $0.03 | Jul 29, 2026 |
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes | sell | 1.95K | $0.003 | $5.86 | Jul 29, 2026 |
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?No | buy | 100 | $0.730 | $73 | Jul 27, 2026 |
Will J.D. Vance be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee?Yes | buy | 16.67 | $0.060 | $1 | Jul 27, 2026 |
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Yes | buy | 15 | $0.497 | $7.46 | Jul 27, 2026 |
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Yes | buy | 50 | $0.497 | $24.85 | Jul 27, 2026 |
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?No | buy | 50 | $0.630 | $31.5 | Jul 27, 2026 |
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Yes | buy | 41.34 | $0.493 | $20.38 | Jul 27, 2026 |
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?No | sell | 100 | $0.010 | $1 | Jul 27, 2026 |
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Yes | sell | 167 | $0.490 | $81.83 | Jul 27, 2026 |
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Yes | sell | 200 | $0.490 | $98 | Jul 27, 2026 |
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?No | buy | 50 | $0.900 | $45 | Jul 27, 2026 |
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yes | sell | 1.77K | $0.090 | $159.35 | Jul 26, 2026 |
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?No | buy | 52 | $0.940 | $48.88 | Jul 26, 2026 |
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Yes | buy | 299 | $0.316 | $94.48 | Jul 26, 2026 |
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?Yes | buy | 390 | $0.316 | $123.24 | Jul 26, 2026 |