Analytics
Yes is at 18.5%, up 5 points from 13.5% when the market opened on 6 Nov 2025.
Across the 354 daily closes on record from 6 Nov 2025 to 28 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 67.5% on 30 Mar 2026 and the lowest 6% on 9 Dec 2025. A week before that last close Yes was at 14.5%; a month before, 15.5%. Its largest one-day move was 32 points down, to 28.5% on 8 Apr 2026.
$77.52K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $75.62M since listing. The order book holds $307.23K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $1.23K bought Yes and $15.82K bought No; the largest was a $7.22K sell of Yes at 17.0¢.
The largest Yes position is TheQuietRisk with 1.06M shares; the largest No position is denizz with 370.5K. Ten wallets hold 36.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 5:54 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 354 points, 6 Nov 2025 – 28 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2025 | 13.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 18.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| TheQuietRisk | Yes | 1.06M |
| xm39 | Yes | 925.53K |
| SecondWindCapital | Yes | 819.22K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027
| onepingonly |
| Yes |
| 400K |
| denizz | No | 370.47K |
| scout | No | 290K |
| rdba | No | 250K |
| Kryptogram | Yes | 249.49K |
| meagainsttheworld | Yes | 236.89K |
| Detailed-Poison | No | 215.75K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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