How to read a prediction market page
Eighteen figures, each in one paragraph: nine on a market page, nine on a trader profile.
A prediction market turns a question into a price. On Polymarket each outcome is a share that pays $1 if it happens and nothing if it does not, so a Yes share at 36¢ means traders, with money on the line, put the chance at about 36%. Everything else on a market page describes how much to trust that number: how much money has tested it, how easy it is to trade against, and who is on each side.
See the figures on a live page: the most traded markets or the trader leaderboard.
The nine figures on a market page
From the price itself to the day it stops trading.
- 01
Yes and No prices
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
- 02
Implied probability
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
- 03
24h volume
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
- 04
Liquidity
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
- 05
Spread
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
- 06
Top holders and concentration
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the public holder list the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
- 07
Trade tape
The public trades, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
- 08
Price history
Daily closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
- 09
Close and resolution
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
The nine figures on a trader profile
What a wallet has made, how, and how much of that record Polymarket publishes.
- 01
Rank
Position on Polymarket's all-time profit leaderboard. The Vultax leaderboard lists 80,000 of those wallets by the same profit figure; Polymarket's ranking also counts wallets outside it.
- 02
Total P&L
Lifetime profit and loss for the wallet, realized and unrealized combined, as Polymarket's leaderboard reports it. It is a record of what happened, not a forecast of what comes next.
- 03
Volume
Lifetime dollars traded. Profit divided by volume is profit per dollar traded, not a return on capital: the same money can be traded many times.
- 04
Position value
What the wallet's open positions are worth at current prices. Zero is shown only when Polymarket reports zero; a value that could not be read stays unavailable.
- 05
Win rate
Share of settled positions that closed in profit. A high win rate with a small profit usually means many small wins and a few large losses.
- 06
Gains and losses
Winning markets summed against losing markets. The split shows whether profit came from many small wins or from a few big calls.
- 07
Gains offset by losses
Total losses as a share of total gains. Lower means less of the profit was given back; a value above 100% means the wallet lost more than it won.
- 08
Markets and settled positions
How many different markets the wallet has traded and how many of its positions have settled. Breadth alone does not establish skill.
- 09
Recent trades and their dates
Polymarket lists a wallet's most recent trades, not its whole history. Each figure on a profile carries the time it was read, so an old number is never shown as live.
