Bitcoin Price prediction markets

This room reads Polymarket's Bitcoin price markets and sorts them by horizon: the year, the month, and the days ahead. Each market is a ladder of price levels, and each rung is its own Yes or No contract on whether Bitcoin touches that level before the deadline.

A price is the cost of a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens, so 62¢ reads as a 62% chance. In a market with many named outcomes the prices should add up to roughly 100%; a gap is the venue's spread and fees, not a free lunch.

A ladder reads like an options chain. The rungs above the spot price fall away as the level rises, the rungs below it fall away as the level drops, and the rung closest to an even chance shows where traders think the edge of the plausible range sits. A rung is a touch contract: it pays if the level trades at any moment before the deadline, not only if Bitcoin closes there.

These markets settle on a named exchange's price feed, and venues disagree by small amounts at the same instant. The rules on each market page name the feed and the candle used.

Each market resolves on its own written rules, including the deadline, the resolution source and what counts as the event. Two markets on the same subject with different wording can and do trade at different prices, so read the rules on the market page before comparing them.