↓ 65,000: Down 11 points in 24 hours, 5.5× its normal daily swing. 5 other outcomes moved by more than noise.
Down 11 points in 24 hours, 5.5× its normal daily swing.
Up 5.0 points in 24 hours, 5.0× its normal daily swing.
Down 4.0 points in 24 hours, 4.0× its normal daily swing.
Down 13 points in 24 hours, 4.3× its normal daily swing.
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| Outcome | 30 days ago | Now |
|---|---|---|
| ↑ 90,000 | 80% | 41% |
| ↓ 70,000 | 27% | 34% |
| ↑ 95,000 | 55% | 23% |
| ↓ 65,000 | 14% | 18% |
| ↑ 100,000 | 37% | 14% |
| ↓ 60,000 | 9.5% | 13% |
| Outcome | Bid / ask | Within 2¢ | $1K pays | $10K pays |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ 90,000 | 40¢/41¢ | $1.6K, $11.5K | 41¢+0.0 | 42¢+0.9 |
| ↓ 70,000 | 33¢/34¢ | $313, $6.3K | 34¢+0.0 | 36¢+2.2 |
| ↑ 95,000 | 22¢/23¢ | $701, $5.7K | 24¢+1.0 | 27¢+4.0 |
| ↓ 65,000 | 17¢/18¢ | $1.1K, $3.4K | 18¢+0.0 | 31¢+13 |
| ↑ 100,000 | 14¢/15¢ | $656, $3.2K | 15¢+0.3 | 27¢+12 |
Vultax Research: how Polymarket trader leaderboards compare
Vultax Research: what copying a Polymarket trade 30 seconds late costs
Last recorded read: 2026-11-05 08:18 UTC
Up 4.0 points in 24 hours, 4.0× its normal daily swing.
Up 8.0 points in 24 hours, 2.7× its normal daily swing.
Down 9.0 points in 24 hours, 4.5× its normal daily swing.
Up 12 points in 24 hours, 3.0× its normal daily swing.
Down 4.0 points in 24 hours, 4.0× its normal daily swing.
Down 15 points in 24 hours, 5.0× its normal daily swing.
Up 4.0 points on the day, against a week that ran down 6.0: 4.0× its normal daily swing, the other way.
Down 9.0 points in 24 hours, 4.5× its normal daily swing.
Down 20 points in 24 hours, 6.7× its normal daily swing.
Up 7.0 points in 24 hours, 2.3× its normal daily swing.
Up 15 points in 24 hours, 3.9× its normal daily swing.
Down 4.0 points in 24 hours, 4.0× its normal daily swing.
Up 5.0 points on the day, against a week that ran down 5.0: 5.0× its normal daily swing, the other way.
Down 11 points in 24 hours, 3.7× its normal daily swing.
Up 7.0 points on the day, against a week that ran down 12: 1.7× its normal daily swing, the other way.
Down 10 points in a week, 3.8× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days.
Down 7.0 points on the day, against a week that ran up 10.0: 2.3× its normal daily swing, the other way. Volume is well under a normal day, so treat it with care.
Up 18 points in a week, 2.2× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days. Volume is well under a normal day, so treat it with care.
Up 7.0 points in 24 hours, 2.3× its normal daily swing. Up 12 on the week. At its highest in 30 days. Volume is well under a normal day, so treat it with care.
Down 7.0 points in 24 hours, 2.0× its normal daily swing. Down 13 on the week. At its lowest in 30 days. Volume is well under a normal day, so treat it with care.
Down 16 points in a week, 1.8× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days. Volume is well under a normal day, so treat it with care.
Up 4.0 points in 24 hours, 2.0× its normal daily swing. Up 6.0 on the week. At its highest in 30 days. Volume is well under a normal day, so treat it with care.
Up 7.0 points in 24 hours, 2.3× its normal daily swing. Up 8.0 on the week. Volume is well under a normal day, so treat it with care.
Down 13 points in a week, 1.2× a normal week for this contract.
On Polymarket, “What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?” prices it at 41% to reach 90,000, 34% to fall to 70,000, 23% to reach 95,000 and 18% to fall to 65,000, on $607K traded across that market in the last 24 hours. 16 earlier deadlines have settled, 16 of them Yes. This room reads 325 open markets across 48 Polymarket events, which together traded $2.6M over the same 24 hours and hold $12M of resting liquidity. Prices as of 5 Nov 2026, 08:28 UTC.
Each rung pays if Bitcoin touches the level before the deadline. The options column is the chance of the same touch implied by Deribit's listed options: the implied volatility of the out-of-the-money option at the expiry nearest the deadline, put through the standard one-touch formula with no drift. Index 80,479 when read.
| Level | Polymarket | Options | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ 120,000 | 3% | 2% | +1 pts |
| ↑ 110,000 | 5% | 5% | -1 pts |
| ↑ 100,000 | 14% | 14% | 0 pts |
| ↑ 95,000 | 23% | 24% | -1 pts |
| ↑ 90,000 |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ 90,000 | 41% | — | — | $36.7K | $112K |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ 82,500 | 79% | — | — | $23.0K | $52.2K |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72,000 | >99% | — | — | $63.7K | $54.4K |
| Market | Resolved as | Total volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|
| What price will Bitcoin hit on November 4? | ↑ 81,000 | $471K | 5 Nov 2026 |
1 further market is awaiting settlement and is not shown.
The Bitcoin Price room has no sourced event timeline to set its moves beside, so the cause of each move is unconfirmed.
This room reads Polymarket's Bitcoin price markets and sorts them by horizon: the year, the month, and the days ahead. Each market is a ladder of price levels, and each rung is its own Yes or No contract on whether Bitcoin touches that level before the deadline.
A price is the cost of a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens, so 62¢ reads as a 62% chance. In a market with many named outcomes the prices should add up to roughly 100%; a gap is the venue's spread and fees, not a free lunch.
A ladder reads like an options chain. The rungs above the spot price fall away as the level rises, the rungs below it fall away as the level drops, and the rung closest to an even chance shows where traders think the edge of the plausible range sits. A rung is a touch contract: it pays if the level trades at any moment before the deadline, not only if Bitcoin closes there.
These markets settle on a named exchange's price feed, and venues disagree by small amounts at the same instant. The rules on each market page name the feed and the candle used.
Each market resolves on its own written rules, including the deadline, the resolution source and what counts as the event. Two markets on the same subject with different wording can and do trade at different prices, so read the rules on the market page before comparing them.
| 41% |
| 41% |
| 0 pts |
| ↓ 70,000 | 34% | 42% | -8 pts |
| ↓ 65,000 | 18% | 26% | -8 pts |
| ↓ 60,000 | 13% | 16% | -3 pts |
| ↓ 55,000 | 7% | 9% | -3 pts |
| ↓ 50,000 | 6% | 6% | 0 pts |
| ↓ 45,000 | 2% | 4% | -2 pts |
| ↓ 40,000 | 2% | 3% | -1 pts |
| Level | Polymarket | Options | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ 90,000 | 1% | 1% | 0 pts |
| ↑ 88,000 | 2% | 3% | -1 pts |
| ↑ 86,000 | 7% | 7% | 0 pts |
| ↑ 84,000 | 23% | 21% | +2 pts |
| ↑ 82,000 | 60% | 56% | +3 pts |
| ↓ 78,000 | 32% | 37% | -6 pts |
| ↓ 76,000 | 11% | 15% | -4 pts |
| ↓ 74,000 | 3% | 5% | -2 pts |
| ↓ 72,000 | 1% | 3% | -2 pts |
| ↓ 70,000 | 1% | 1% | 0 pts |
| Level | Polymarket | Options | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ 95,000 | 9% | 10% | -1 pts |
| ↑ 92,500 | 14% | 15% | -1 pts |
| ↑ 90,000 | 25% | 23% | +2 pts |
| ↑ 87,500 | 36% | 35% | +1 pts |
| ↑ 85,000 | 56% | 53% | +4 pts |
| ↑ 82,500 | 79% | 77% | +1 pts |
| ↓ 77,500 | 69% | 70% | -2 pts |
| ↓ 75,000 | 47% | 49% | -3 pts |
| ↓ 72,500 | 30% | 34% | -4 pts |
| ↓ 70,000 | 19% | 23% | -5 pts |
| ↓ 67,500 | 12% | 16% | -4 pts |
| ↓ 65,000 | 8% | 10% | -3 pts |
The two venues settle on different prices (Polymarket names one exchange's feed in each market's rules; Deribit's index averages several), and the formula assumes the smile does not move. A gap is a question about the two markets, not a trade: fees, spreads and the size either book holds decide whether it is worth anything. Source: Deribit public market data, read 5 Nov 2026.
| 1 Jan 2027 |
| Yes41¢No60¢ |
| ↓ 70,000 | 34% | — | — | $63.8K | $111K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes34¢No67¢ |
| ↑ 95,000 | 23% | — | — | $40.6K | $83.8K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes23¢No78¢ |
| ↓ 65,000 | 18% | — | — | $7.3K | $73.5K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes18¢No83¢ |
| ↑ 100,000 | 14% | — | — | $25.8K | $93.5K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes14¢No86¢ |
| ↓ 60,000 | 13% | — | — | $25.7K | $114K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes13¢No88¢ |
| ↓ 55,000 | 6.5% | — | — | $125K | $252K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes6.5¢No94¢ |
| ↓ 50,000 | 5.5% | — | — | $82.8K | $247K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes5.5¢No95¢ |
| ↑ 110,000 | 4.5% | — | — | $23.1K | $159K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes4.5¢No96¢ |
| ↑ 120,000 | 3.1% | — | — | $14.0K | $140K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes3.1¢No97¢ |
| ↓ 45,000 | 2.3% | — | — | $94.2K | $264K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes2.3¢No98¢ |
| ↓ 40,000 | 2.3% | — | — | $8.8K | $145K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes2.3¢No98¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | 2.5% | — | — | $104K | $109K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes2.5¢No98¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? | 42% | — | — | $392 | $17.3K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes42¢No59¢ |
| 1 Dec 2026 |
| Yes79¢No21¢ |
| ↓ 77,500 | 69% | — | — | $4.0K | $41.0K | 1 Dec 2026 | Yes69¢No31¢ |
| ↑ 85,000 | 56% | — | — | $13.0K | $60.3K | 1 Dec 2026 | Yes56¢No44¢ |
| ↓ 75,000 | 47% | — | — | $62.4K | $88.3K | 1 Dec 2026 | Yes47¢No53¢ |
| ↑ 87,500 | 36% | — | — | $12.4K | $64.3K | 1 Dec 2026 | Yes36¢No65¢ |
| ↓ 72,500 | 30% | — | — | $43.0K | $67.5K | 1 Dec 2026 | Yes30¢No71¢ |
| ↑ 90,000 | 25% | — | — | $25.5K | $57.5K | 1 Dec 2026 | Yes25¢No76¢ |
| ↓ 70,000 | 19% | — | — | $10.5K | $71.6K | 1 Dec 2026 | Yes19¢No82¢ |
| ↑ 92,500 | 14% | — | — | $35.4K | $69.2K | 1 Dec 2026 | Yes14¢No87¢ |
| ↓ 67,500 | 12% | — | — | $25.4K | $80.2K | 1 Dec 2026 | Yes12¢No89¢ |
| ↑ 95,000 | 8.6% | — | — | $37.7K | $70.7K | 1 Dec 2026 | Yes8.6¢No91¢ |
| ↓ 65,000 | 7.5% | — | — | $21.3K | $70.5K | 1 Dec 2026 | Yes7.5¢No93¢ |
| Yes99.95¢No0.05¢ |
| 74,000 | >99% | — | — | $48.3K | $49.4K | 5 Nov 2026 | Yes99.85¢No0.15¢ |
| 76,000 | >99% | — | — | $41.9K | $60.3K | 5 Nov 2026 | Yes99.75¢No0.25¢ |
| 78,000 | 98% | — | — | $61.2K | $56.3K | 5 Nov 2026 | Yes98¢No2.2¢ |
| 80,000 | 76% | — | — | $30.8K | $43.3K | 5 Nov 2026 | Yes76¢No24¢ |
| 82,000 | 8.3% | — | — | $73.0K | $48.1K | 5 Nov 2026 | Yes8.3¢No92¢ |
| 84,000 | 1.5% | — | — | $71.7K | $56.4K | 5 Nov 2026 | Yes1.5¢No99¢ |
| 86,000 | <1% | — | — | $29.9K | $60.9K | 5 Nov 2026 | Yes0.15¢No99.85¢ |
| 92,000 | <1% | — | — | $81.4K | $99.4K | 5 Nov 2026 | Yes0.05¢No99.95¢ |
| 90,000 | <1% | — | — | $49.5K | $66.4K | 5 Nov 2026 | Yes0.05¢No99.95¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ 82,000 | 60% | — | — | $53.2K | $48.4K | 9 Nov 2026 | Yes60¢No41¢ |
| ↓ 78,000 | 32% | — | — | $4.9K | $40.6K | 9 Nov 2026 | Yes32¢No69¢ |
| ↑ 84,000 | 23% | — | — | $47.4K | $38.1K | 9 Nov 2026 | Yes23¢No78¢ |
| ↓ 76,000 | 11% | — | — | $2.0K | $39.6K | 9 Nov 2026 | Yes11¢No90¢ |
| ↑ 86,000 | 6.7% | — | — | $50.9K | $38.7K | 9 Nov 2026 | Yes6.7¢No93¢ |
| ↓ 74,000 | 3% | — | — | $29.4K | $51.8K | 9 Nov 2026 | Yes3¢No97¢ |
| ↑ 88,000 | 1.6% | — | — | $47.0K | $58.5K | 9 Nov 2026 | Yes1.6¢No98¢ |
| ↓ 72,000 | 1.3% | — | — | $31.5K | $66.0K | 9 Nov 2026 | Yes1.3¢No99¢ |
| ↑ 90,000 | <1% | — | — | $17.9K | $56.9K | 9 Nov 2026 | Yes0.85¢No99.15¢ |
| ↓ 70,000 | <1% | — | — | $31.7K | $69.7K | 9 Nov 2026 | Yes0.65¢No99.35¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70,000 | >99% | — | — | $2.0K | $38.0K | 6 Nov 2026 | Yes99.95¢No0.05¢ |
| 68,000 | >99% | — | — | $3.1K | $34.3K | 6 Nov 2026 | Yes99.9¢No0.1¢ |
| 72,000 | >99% | — | — | $7.9K | $49.5K | 6 Nov 2026 | Yes99.75¢No0.25¢ |
| 74,000 | >99% | — | — | $30.1K | $53.1K | 6 Nov 2026 | Yes99.35¢No0.65¢ |
| 76,000 | 99% | — | — | $20.6K | $47.0K | 6 Nov 2026 | Yes99¢No1.2¢ |
| 78,000 | 92% | — | — | $37.1K | $54.8K | 6 Nov 2026 | Yes92¢No8.5¢ |
| 80,000 | 65% | — | — | $1.3K | $50.6K | 6 Nov 2026 | Yes65¢No36¢ |
| 82,000 | 21% | — | — | $21.9K | $36.8K | 6 Nov 2026 | Yes21¢No79¢ |
| 84,000 | 4.5% | — | — | $29.7K | $47.2K | 6 Nov 2026 | Yes4.5¢No95¢ |
| 86,000 | <1% | — | — | $16.2K | $51.5K | 6 Nov 2026 | Yes0.9¢No99.1¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80,000-82,000 | 68% | — | — | $8.6K | $34.0K | 5 Nov 2026 | Yes68¢No32¢ |
| 78,000-80,000 | 23% | — | — | $4.9K | $37.5K | 5 Nov 2026 | Yes23¢No78¢ |
| 82,000-84,000 | 7.0% | — | — | $6.9K | $17.4K | 5 Nov 2026 | Yes7.0¢No93¢ |
| 76,000-78,000 | 1.7% | — | — | $8.4K | $36.7K | 5 Nov 2026 | Yes1.7¢No98¢ |
| 84,000-86,000 | 1.1% | — | — | $3.5K | $36.7K | 5 Nov 2026 | Yes1.1¢No99¢ |
| 74,000-76,000 | <1% | — | — | $16.1K | $46.6K | 5 Nov 2026 | Yes0.55¢No99.45¢ |
| 86,000-88,000 | <1% | — | — | $2.0K | $38.3K | 5 Nov 2026 | Yes0.25¢No99.75¢ |
| 72,000-74,000 | <1% | — | — | $13.1K | $47.1K | 5 Nov 2026 | Yes0.2¢No99.8¢ |
| <72,000 | <1% | — | — | $831 | $40.8K | 5 Nov 2026 | Yes0.05¢No99.95¢ |
| 88,000-90,000 | <1% | — | — | $397 | $17.8K | 5 Nov 2026 | Yes0.05¢No99.95¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68,000 | >99% | — | — | $1.6K | $2.7K | 7 Nov 2026 | Yes99.9¢No0.1¢ |
| 70,000 | >99% | — | — | $2.1K | $37.3K | 7 Nov 2026 | Yes99.5¢No0.5¢ |
| 72,000 | >99% | — | — | $1.2K | $35.9K | 7 Nov 2026 | Yes99.45¢No0.55¢ |
| 74,000 | 99% | — | — | $16.4K | $42.8K | 7 Nov 2026 | Yes99¢No1.2¢ |
| 76,000 | 98% | — | — | $15.0K | $43.6K | 7 Nov 2026 | Yes98¢No2.3¢ |
| 78,000 | 90% | — | — | $3.9K | $43.1K | 7 Nov 2026 | Yes90¢No10¢ |
| 80,000 | 62% | — | — | $962 | $49.4K | 7 Nov 2026 | Yes62¢No39¢ |
| 82,000 | 25% | — | — | $1.6K | $47.2K | 7 Nov 2026 | Yes25¢No75¢ |
| 84,000 | 6.3% | — | — | $1.3K | $44.9K | 7 Nov 2026 | Yes6.3¢No94¢ |
| 86,000 | 1.3% | — | — | $1.8K | $47.5K | 7 Nov 2026 | Yes1.3¢No99¢ |
Prices are read from Polymarket's public markets and trades and describe what traders pay, not a forecast or recommendation by Vultax.
Your notebook
Market rulesCloses 1 Dec 2026, 05:00 UTCRead 5 Nov 2026, 08:28 UTC
Same as the market so far
Your scenario
46.5%
Market 46.5% · +0.0 pts
Your scenario, not a Vultax forecast.
Private to your account.
Scored when the market resolves.
Sign in to keep forecasts across devices.
