Oscars 2027 prediction markets

This room reads every open Polymarket market on the 99th Academy Awards and sorts it into Best Picture and Director, the four acting awards and every other category. Best Picture is priced beside the same question on Kalshi.

A price is the cost of a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens, so 62¢ reads as a 62% chance. In a market with many named outcomes the prices should add up to roughly 100%; a gap is the venue's spread and fees, not a free lunch.

An Oscar market is decided by about ten thousand Academy voters, and the season tells you how they are leaning in a fixed order: the autumn festivals, the critics' groups, the guild awards and BAFTA. The guilds matter most because their members overlap with the Academy's branches. Best Picture alone is counted by preferential ballot, which rewards the film most voters rank second or third and has produced winners that led no single precursor.

Each market resolves on its own written rules, including the deadline, the resolution source and what counts as the event. Two markets on the same subject with different wording can and do trade at different prices, so read the rules on the market page before comparing them.