Arman Tsarukyan: Up 7.8 points in a week, 3.5× a normal week for this contract. Volume is 2.5× a normal day, so money came with it. 1 other outcome moved by more than noise.
Up 7.8 points in a week, 3.5× a normal week for this contract. Volume is 2.5× a normal day, so money came with it.
Down 6.4 points in a week, 2.1× a normal week for this contract. Volume is 2.5× a normal day, so money came with it.
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A free account gives you a practice balance at live Polymarket prices, a portfolio that marks itself, and Vi on every market. No card.
Each line is the price of one outcome on Polymarket, read as a probability. Hover or tap to read every line on the same day.
| Outcome | 30 days ago | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Gaethje | 84% | 86% |
| Arman Tsarukyan | 7.5% | 11% |
Every box is one Polymarket event in this room. The bigger the box, the more was traded in the last 24 hours.
The order book behind “Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?”, read a minute ago.
| Outcome | Bid / ask | Within 2¢ | $1K pays | $10K pays |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Gaethje | 86¢/86¢ | $34 · $277 | 91¢+5.5 | |
| Arman Tsarukyan | 9.6¢/13¢ | $25 · $49 | 41¢+27 | |
| Charles Oliveira | 0.3¢/1.1¢ | $0 · $12 | 32¢+31 | |
| Ilia Topuria | 0.4¢/0.9¢ | $57 · $10 | 30¢+29 | |
| Max Holloway | 0.2¢/0.5¢ | $119 · $27 | 27¢+26 |
Average price a buy order of that size would pay against the offers resting now, and how many points that is above the best offer. “Within 2¢” is the dollars resting near the touch on the bid and the offer side.
Vultax Research: how much size prediction market order books hold
Biggest holders in this market's two leading outcomes, valued at the current price. Open a name for the wallet's record on Vultax.
4 more positions in this market
Who holds the most on each side, valued at the current price, with each wallet's record one click away.
Vultax Research: how Polymarket trader leaderboards compare
Prints of $1,000 and more in the room's busiest markets, newest first.
Every move in this room that cleared Vi IQ's "notable" line, stamped when it happened. Vultax has recorded this room since 20 Sep 2026.
2 earlier moves on record
The dated record of every meaningful move in this room: what moved, by how much against its own normal, and whether money came with it.
On Polymarket, “Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?” has Justin Gaethje in front at 86%, on $6.5K traded across that market in the last 24 hours. This room reads 1,153 open markets across 65 Polymarket events, which together traded $40.1K over the same 24 hours and hold $443K of resting liquidity. Prices as of 21 Sep 2026, 06:30 UTC.
Who holds each belt when the year ends
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Gaethje | 86% | −1.6 | −6.5 | $1.5K | $1.9K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes86¢No14¢ |
| Arman Tsarukyan |
Bookings, retirements and the rest
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nassourdine Imavov | 43% | +4.5 | −6.5 | $0 | $290 | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes43¢No57¢ |
Largest price changes in points, counted only on markets that traded at least $1,000 in the same 24 hours. The number beside each move is that market’s 24-hour volume.
Change in probability points since the same time the previous day
The most recently settled Polymarket markets on this subject, with the outcome that paid and the total traded over the market’s life. A settled market is the only place a prediction market can be checked against what happened.
| Market | Resolved as | Total volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Noche UFC: Drakkar Klose vs. Tommy Gantt (Lightweight, Prelims) | Tommy Gantt | $101K | 20 Sep 2026 |
| UFC 331: Patricio Pitbull vs. Dooho Choi (Featherweight, Main Card) | Patricio Pitbull | $269K | 20 Sep 2026 |
| UFC 331: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Main Card) | Arman Tsarukyan | $1.2M | 20 Sep 2026 |
| UFC 331: Gable Steveson vs. Sean Sharaf (Heavyweight, Prelims) | Sean Sharaf | $406K | 20 Sep 2026 |
| UFC 331: Marlon Vera vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Prelims) | Marlon Vera |
This room reads every open Polymarket market tagged to the UFC and sorts it into the title pictures, the fights on the coming cards and everything else. Fight markets are listed by the money traded on them, which is the quickest way to see where the attention on a card sits.
A price is the cost of a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens, so 62¢ reads as a 62% chance. In a market with many named outcomes the prices should add up to roughly 100%; a gap is the venue's spread and fees, not a free lunch.
A fight market is a two-way price that lives for a few days and settles in minutes, so most of its movement comes in the final day: weigh-ins, late replacements and the closing line at the sportsbooks. The year-end belt markets are slower and ask a different question. They pay on who holds the title on the date, which a champion can lose by defeat, by injury, by vacating, or by moving up a division.
Each market resolves on its own written rules, including the deadline, the resolution source and what counts as the event. Two markets on the same subject with different wording can and do trade at different prices, so read the rules on the market page before comparing them.
| 12% |
| +4.5 |
| +8.8 |
| $1.7K |
| $1.6K |
| 1 Jan 2027 |
| Yes12¢No89¢ |
| Charles Oliveira | <1% | 0 | −0.9 | $40 | $2.1K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes0.7¢No99¢ |
| Ilia Topuria | <1% | 0 | −2.9 | $125 | $2.9K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes0.7¢No99¢ |
| Max Holloway | <1% | 0 | 0 | $1.8K | $2.9K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes0.4¢No100¢ |
| Paddy Pimblett | <1% | 0 | — | $1.3K | $1.5K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes0.3¢No100¢ |
6 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciryl Gane | 68% | −0.5 | +31 | $935 | $2.6K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes68¢No32¢ |
| Josh Hokit | 30% | +2.1 | +26 | $344 | $2.9K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes30¢No70¢ |
| Tom Aspinall | 2% | 0 | −45 | $679 | $2.4K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes2¢No98¢ |
| Alexander Volkov | <1% | 0 | 0 | $246 | $2.2K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes0.9¢No99¢ |
| Sergei Pavlovich | <1% | −1.7 | +0.7 | $219 | $2.2K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes0.8¢No99¢ |
| Curtis Blaydes | <1% | — | 0 | $1 | $1.5K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
8 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Strickland | 63% | +8.8 | +6.8 | $289 | $1.6K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes63¢No37¢ |
| Nassourdine Imavov | 32% | −5.5 | −1.7 | $1.9K | $4.2K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes32¢No68¢ |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 2.6% | 0 | −1.4 | $63 | $4.1K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes2.6¢No97¢ |
| Dricus Du Plessis | <1% | 0 | 0 | $5 | $1.6K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes0.9¢No99¢ |
| Anthony Hernandez | <1% | — | — | $5 | $2.3K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| Israel Adesanya | <1% | — | — | $5 | $4.2K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
6 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Van | 89% | −9.0 | +40 | $1.2K | $1.2K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes89¢No11¢ |
| Manel Kape | 2.9% | +2.3 | +1.1 | $399 | $2.3K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes2.9¢No97¢ |
| Alexandre Pantoja | <1% | −1.1 | −44 | $207 | $1.1K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes0.4¢No100¢ |
| Tatsuro Taira | <1% | — | — | $0 | $1.3K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| Brandon Royval | <1% | — | — | $0 | $1.0K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| Brandon Moreno | <1% | — | — | $0 | $935 | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
5 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | 53% | +1.0 | +1.0 | $154 | $2.6K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes53¢No48¢ |
| Movsar Evloev | 44% | −1.0 | +0.5 | $77 | $1.7K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes44¢No56¢ |
| Jean Silva | 5.3% | +4.5 | +4.5 | $521 | $1.0K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes5.3¢No95¢ |
| Steve Garcia | <1% | −1.3 | −2.1 | $81 | $699 | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes0.5¢No100¢ |
| Diego Lopes | <1% | 0 | 0 | $16 | $640 | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes0.4¢No100¢ |
| Lerone Murphy | <1% | 0 | 0 | $16 | $769 | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes0.4¢No100¢ |
6 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 92% | −0.7 | −0.7 | $39 | $4.4K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes92¢No8.1¢ |
| Carlos Prates | 5.8% | +0.5 | +1.4 | $199 | $3.0K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes5.8¢No94¢ |
| Ian Machado Garry | 1.4% | +0.9 | +0.7 | $447 | $1.0K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes1.4¢No99¢ |
| Michael Morales | <1% | 0 | −1.6 | $36 | $1.3K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes0.7¢No99¢ |
| Jack Della Maddalena | <1% | — | — | $0 | $2.4K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | <1% | — | — | $0 | $2.5K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
6 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petr Yan | 61% | −0.5 | +2.5 | $181 | $1.2K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes61¢No39¢ |
| Merab Dvalishvili | 33% | −1.5 | +3.5 | $0 | $1.4K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes33¢No68¢ |
| Song Yadong | 2.5% | 0 | +1.4 | $0 | $1.5K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes2.5¢No98¢ |
| Sean O'Malley | <1% | −2.5 | 0 | $87 | $1.7K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes0.8¢No99¢ |
| David Martinez | <1% | — | — | $0 | $2.0K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| Aiemann Zahabi | <1% | — | 0 | $3 | $1.2K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
5 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 90% | — | −0.5 | $0 | $2.3K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes90¢No10¢ |
| Alex Pereira | 1.5% | 0 | — | $20 | $779 | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes1.5¢No99¢ |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 1.4% | 0 | 0 | $0 | $792 | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes1.4¢No99¢ |
| Petr Yan | 1.1% | +0.5 | 0 | $0 | $588 | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes1.1¢No99¢ |
| Ilia Topuria | <1% | — | — | $0 | $1.1K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes0.9¢No99¢ |
| Khamzat Chimaev | <1% | 0 | 0 | $0 | $811 | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes0.9¢No99¢ |
9 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Ulberg | 88% | −1.5 | −4.5 | $0 | $1.2K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes88¢No12¢ |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 4.7% | 0 | −0.7 | $48 | $1.1K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes4.7¢No95¢ |
| Alex Pereira | 2.4% | 0 | +1.5 | $20 | $996 | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes2.4¢No98¢ |
| Volkan Oezdemir | <1% | 0 | +0.8 | $0 | $632 | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes0.8¢No99¢ |
| Bogdan Guskov | <1% | — | +0.7 | $0 | $838 | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes0.8¢No99¢ |
| Jiří Procházka | <1% | — | +0.6 | $0 | $875 | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes0.8¢No99¢ |
6 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islam/None in 2026 | 92% | −0.6 | 0 | $0 | $3.1K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes92¢No7.6¢ |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 2.9% | −1.6 | −0.7 | $20 | $1.4K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes2.9¢No97¢ |
| Petr Yan | 1.6% | +0.5 | 0 | $0 | $1.9K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes1.6¢No98¢ |
| Ilia Topuria | <1% | — | 0 | $0 | $2.5K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes0.9¢No99¢ |
| Alexander Volkanovski | <1% | 0 | 0 | $0 | $1.3K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes0.7¢No99¢ |
| Alexandre Pantoja | <1% | 0 | 0 | $0 | $780 | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes0.4¢No100¢ |
9 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Merab Dvalishvili | 33% | — | +1.5 | $0 | $239 | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes33¢No67¢ |
| Sean O'Malley | 14% | 0 | −4.1 | $0 | $409 | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes14¢No86¢ |
| Paddy Pimblett | 14% | −0.5 | −0.8 | $0 | $1.7K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes14¢No86¢ |
| Alexander Volkov | 11% | — | 0 | $0 | $677 | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes11¢No89¢ |
| Manel Kape | 9.5% | −1.0 | +0.5 | $10 | $229 | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes9.5¢No91¢ |
20 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 63% | — | — | $2.6K | $10.2K | 27 Sep 2026 | Buy63¢ |
| Rosas Jr. to win by KO/TKO? | 51% | +0.5 | +1.0 | $0 | $35 | 27 Sep 2026 | Yes51¢No49¢ |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 51% | +0.5 | +1.0 | $0 | $6 | 27 Sep 2026 | Yes51¢No50¢ |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 51% | +0.5 | +0.5 | $0 | $27 | 27 Sep 2026 | Yes51¢No50¢ |
| Fight won by submission? | 51% | +0.5 | +0.5 | $0 | $28 | 27 Sep 2026 | Yes51¢No50¢ |
| Over | 51% | +0.5 | +0.5 | $0 | $47 | 27 Sep 2026 | Buy51¢ |
27 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josiah Harrell | 54% | — | — | $2.3K | $9.2K | 27 Sep 2026 | Buy54¢ |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 50% | — | +0.5 | $0 | $7 | 27 Sep 2026 | Yes50¢No50¢ |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 50% | — | — | $0 | $28 | 27 Sep 2026 | Yes50¢No50¢ |
| Brener to win by KO/TKO? | 50% | −0.5 | — | $0 | $28 | 27 Sep 2026 | Yes50¢No50¢ |
| Harrell to win by KO/TKO? | 50% | — | — | $0 | $28 | 27 Sep 2026 | Yes50¢No50¢ |
| Fight won by submission? | 50% | — | — | $0 | $28 | 27 Sep 2026 | Yes50¢No50¢ |
17 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodolfo Vieira | 56% | — | — | $2.1K | $8.5K | 27 Sep 2026 | Buy56¢ |
| Over | 51% | — | — | $0 | $47 | 27 Sep 2026 | Buy51¢ |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 50% | — | +1.0 | $0 | $8 | 27 Sep 2026 | Yes50¢No50¢ |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 50% | — | — | $0 | $28 | 27 Sep 2026 | Yes50¢No50¢ |
| Bryczek to win by KO/TKO? | 50% | — | — | $0 | $28 | 27 Sep 2026 | Yes50¢No50¢ |
| Vieira to win by KO/TKO? | 50% | −0.5 | — | $0 | $28 | 27 Sep 2026 | Yes50¢No50¢ |
17 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ailin Perez | 55% | — | — | $2.1K | $7.9K | 27 Sep 2026 | Buy55¢ |
| Dumont to win by KO/TKO? | 51% | +0.5 | +1.0 | $0 | $39 | 27 Sep 2026 | Yes51¢No50¢ |
| Perez to win by KO/TKO? | 51% | — | +0.5 | $0 | $37 | 27 Sep 2026 | Yes51¢No50¢ |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 50% | — | +1.0 | $0 | $8 | 27 Sep 2026 | Yes50¢No50¢ |
| Fight won by submission? | 50% | — | — | $0 | $30 | 27 Sep 2026 | Yes50¢No50¢ |
| Over | 50% | — | — | $0 | $47 | 27 Sep 2026 | Buy50¢ |
17 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
50 further markets matched this board and are not shown.
Change in probability points since the same time the previous week
| $383K |
| 20 Sep 2026 |
| UFC 331: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ryan Gandra (Middleweight, Early Prelims) | Ryan Gandra | $208K | 19 Sep 2026 |
| UFC 331: Casey O'Neill vs. Eduarda Moura (Women's Flyweight, Early Prelims) | Casey O'Neill | $144K | 19 Sep 2026 |
| UFC 331: Giga Chikadze vs. Joanderson Brito (Featherweight, Early Prelims) | Joanderson Brito | $190K | 19 Sep 2026 |
| UFC: Who Will Arnold Allen Fight Next? | Other | $72.1K | 17 Sep 2026 |
| Dana White's Contender Series: Zevan Hunt vs. Mayton Perea (Welterweight, Main Card) | Mayton Perea | $41.5K | 16 Sep 2026 |
Prices are read from Polymarket's public markets and trades and describe what traders pay, not a forecast or recommendation by Vultax.