Brighton: Up 4.5 points in a week, 4.3× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days. Volume is 4.5× a normal day, so money came with it. 3 other outcomes moved by more than noise.
Up 4.5 points in a week, 4.3× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days. Volume is 4.5× a normal day, so money came with it.
Down 3.3 points in 24 hours, 8.4× its normal daily swing. Volume is 4.5× a normal day, so money came with it.
Up 3.0 points in 24 hours, 6.0× its normal daily swing. At its highest in 30 days. Volume is 4.5× a normal day, so money came with it.
Down 7.0 points in a week, 2.6× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days. Volume is 4.5× a normal day, so money came with it.
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| Outcome | 30 days ago | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 49% | 66% |
| Manchester City | 38% | 13% |
| Brighton | 1.9% | 7.6% |
| Liverpool | 4.0% | 5.0% |
| Chelsea | 2.6% | 4.0% |
| Outcome | Bid / ask | Within 2¢ | $1K pays | $10K pays |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 65¢/66¢ | $9.3K, $4.4K | 67¢+0.9 | 68¢+2.5 |
| Manchester City | 12¢/13¢ | $1.8K, $1.5K | 14¢+0.9 | 20¢+7.0 |
| Brighton | 7.4¢/7.9¢ | $155, $1.6K | 8.7¢+0.8 | 18¢+10 |
| Liverpool | 4.8¢/5.1¢ | $1.4K, $918 | 5.6¢+0.5 | 16¢+11 |
| Chelsea | 3.9¢/4¢ | $2.7K, $521 | 5.3¢+1.3 | 17¢+13 |
Vultax Research: how Polymarket trader leaderboards compare
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Last recorded read: 2026-10-25 05:34 UTC
Up 3.0 points in 24 hours, 6.0× its normal daily swing. At its highest in 30 days. Volume is 4.4× a normal day, so money came with it.
Up 4.6 points in a week, 4.3× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days. Volume is 3.4× a normal day, so money came with it.
Down 7.0 points in a week, 2.6× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days. Volume is 3.4× a normal day, so money came with it.
Down 2.0 points in 24 hours, 5.0× its normal daily swing. Volume is 2.6× a normal day, so money came with it.
Up 2.5 points in 24 hours, 2.5× its normal daily swing. At its highest in 30 days.
Down 6.0 points in a week, 2.3× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days.
Up 1.0 points in a week, 1.0× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days.
Down 5.0 points in a week, 1.9× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days.
Up 3.5 points in a week, 3.3× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days.
Up 3.3 points in a week, 3.1× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days. Volume is well under a normal day, so treat it with care.
On Polymarket, “EPL: 2027 Champion” has Arsenal in front at 66%, on $518K traded across that market in the last 24 hours. This room reads 148 open markets across 8 Polymarket events, which together traded $530K over the same 24 hours and hold $12M of resting liquidity. Prices as of 25 Oct 2026, 05:39 UTC.
User reads of the listed clubs' English Wikipedia articles, 24 Sep 2026 to 23 Oct 2026 (30 days), beside “EPL: 2027 Champion”. Shares are of the names listed here. A price far ahead of attention is a reason to look closer, not evidence of anything on its own.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 66% | +3.0 | +5.0 | $12.3K |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 97% | 0 | −2.2 |
The Premier League room has no sourced event timeline to set its moves beside, so the cause of each move is unconfirmed.
The season's Premier League markets, with their observed prices and explicitly mapped club attention. Title, top-four and European qualification contracts can have different conditions.
The match-model evidence distinguishes a chronological retrospective test from predictions actually recorded before matches. A result feed that is more than fourteen days behind suppresses new live model probabilities.
No comparison with historical executable betting prices or trading-cost study has been established. Model scores are not a profitability claim.
The title board keeps the current field together, while the room's recorded readings show what changed. A favourite is the market's highest-priced outcome, not an official prediction or a guaranteed winner.
Source: Wikimedia pageviews, user reads of each English Wikipedia article, read 25 Oct 2026
| 30 May 2027 |
| Yes66¢No35¢ |
| Manchester City | 13% | −2.0 | −7.0 | $3.4K | $169K | 30 May 2027 | Yes13¢No88¢ |
| Brighton | 7.7% | +1.2 | +4.2 | $6.0K | $124K | 30 May 2027 | Yes7.7¢No92¢ |
| Liverpool | 5.0% | +0.9 | +1.1 | $6.8K | $117K | 30 May 2027 | Yes5.0¢No95¢ |
| Chelsea | 4.0% | −3.4 | −3.0 | $20.0K | $131K | 30 May 2027 | Yes4.0¢No96¢ |
| Manchester United | <1% | — | 0 | $3.3K | $246K | 30 May 2027 | Yes0.65¢No99.35¢ |
| Aston Villa | <1% | 0 | 0 | $180K | $649K | 30 May 2027 | Yes0.6¢No99.4¢ |
| Tottenham | <1% | 0 | 0 | $172K | $291K | 30 May 2027 | Yes0.6¢No99.4¢ |
| Newcastle United | <1% | — | 0 | $862 | $789K | 30 May 2027 | Yes0.15¢No99.85¢ |
| Brentford | <1% | 0 | 0 | $150 | $611K | 30 May 2027 | Yes0.15¢No99.85¢ |
| Leeds United | <1% | — | — | $28 | $778K | 30 May 2027 | Yes0.15¢No99.85¢ |
| Hull City | <1% | 0 | 0 | $808 | $196K | 30 May 2027 | Yes0.1¢No99.9¢ |
| Everton | <1% | 0 | 0 | $112K | $859K | 30 May 2027 | Yes0.05¢No99.95¢ |
| Bournemouth | <1% | — | 0 | $0 | $908K | 30 May 2027 | Yes0.05¢No99.95¢ |
| Crystal Palace | <1% | — | — | $0 | $942K | 15 Jun 2027 | Yes0.05¢No99.95¢ |
| Fulham | <1% | — | 0 | $0 | $804K | 15 Jun 2027 | Yes0.05¢No99.95¢ |
| Nottingham Forest | <1% | — | — | $0 | $897K | 30 May 2027 | Yes0.05¢No99.95¢ |
| Sunderland | <1% | — | — | $0 | $931K | 30 May 2027 | Yes0.05¢No99.95¢ |
| Coventry City | <1% | — | — | $0 | $916K | 30 May 2027 | Yes0.05¢No99.95¢ |
| Ipswich Town | <1% | — | 0 | $0 | $838K | 30 May 2027 | Yes0.05¢No99.95¢ |
| $2.3K |
| 14 Jun 2027 |
| Yes97¢No3.4¢ |
| Chelsea | 81% | −3.0 | — | $0 | $699 | 14 Jun 2027 | Yes81¢No19¢ |
| Liverpool | 80% | — | −1.0 | $0 | $1.2K | 14 Jun 2027 | Yes80¢No20¢ |
| Brighton | 73% | −1.0 | +12 | $50 | $2.1K | 14 Jun 2027 | Yes73¢No27¢ |
| Manchester City | 50% | +1.5 | −17 | $5 | $1.5K | 14 Jun 2027 | Yes50¢No51¢ |
| Brentford | 46% | +4.5 | +4.5 | $107 | $1.0K | 14 Jun 2027 | Yes46¢No54¢ |
| Manchester United | 45% | +0.5 | −1.0 | $0 | $3.0K | 14 Jun 2027 | Yes45¢No55¢ |
| Aston Villa | 40% | +12 | +16 | $3.4K | $1.2K | 14 Jun 2027 | Yes40¢No61¢ |
| Tottenham | 28% | +11 | +9.0 | $83 | $1.7K | 14 Jun 2027 | Yes28¢No73¢ |
| Leeds United | 21% | — | — | $0 | $2.1K | 14 Jun 2027 | Yes21¢No79¢ |
| Newcastle United | 17% | +3.0 | +0.5 | $0 | $612 | 14 Jun 2027 | Yes17¢No83¢ |
| Nottingham Forest | 14% | +0.5 | +2.0 | $0 | $190 | 14 Jun 2027 | Yes14¢No87¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | 68% | +2.5 | −3.0 | $1.9K | $6.9K | 15 Jun 2027 | Yes68¢No32¢ |
| Alexander Isak | 9.5% | — | — | $0 | $6.9K | 31 May 2027 | Yes9.5¢No91¢ |
| João Pedro | 7.5% | −5.0 | −4.0 | $1.1K | $5.4K | 15 Jun 2027 | Yes7.5¢No93¢ |
| Viktor Gyökeres | 3.1% | 0 | 0 | $0 | $7.9K | 31 May 2027 | Yes3.1¢No97¢ |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 1.5% | — | +0.7 | $0 | $4.7K | 15 Jun 2027 | Yes1.5¢No99¢ |
| Cole Palmer | 1.3% | — | 0 | $0 | $5.5K | 31 May 2027 | Yes1.3¢No99¢ |
| Igor Thiago | 1.3% | — | +0.5 | $0 | $5.4K | 31 May 2027 | Yes1.3¢No99¢ |
| Yoane Wissa | <1% | — | 0 | $0 | $4.8K | 31 May 2027 | Yes0.7¢No99.3¢ |
| Bruno Fernandes | <1% | — | 0 | $0 | $5.2K | 31 May 2027 | Yes0.7¢No99.3¢ |
| Bryan Mbeumo | <1% | — | 0 | $0 | $4.5K | 31 May 2027 | Yes0.6¢No99.4¢ |
| Benjamin Šeško | <1% | — | 0 | $0 | $6.4K | 31 May 2027 | Yes0.55¢No99.45¢ |
| Morgan Rogers | <1% | — | — | $0 | $5.1K | 31 May 2027 | Yes0.55¢No99.45¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry City | 60% | +2.0 | +4.5 | $114 | $4.7K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes60¢No41¢ |
| Hull City | 55% | +2.0 | −2.0 | $1.1K | $6.0K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes55¢No45¢ |
| Manchester City | 50% | +2.6 | +23 | $1.0K | $3.4K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes50¢No50¢ |
| Ipswich Town | 35% | — | −1.0 | $0 | $4.3K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes35¢No66¢ |
| Crystal Palace | 26% | −1.0 | +4.0 | $0 | $3.4K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes26¢No75¢ |
| Sunderland | 24% | — | −4.0 | $60 | $4.3K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes24¢No77¢ |
| Fulham | 18% | −5.5 | −13 | $224 | $3.5K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes18¢No83¢ |
| Nottingham Forest | 16% | — | −3.5 | $20 | $4.7K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes16¢No84¢ |
| Newcastle United | 12% | 0 | −1.2 | $81 | $4.0K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes12¢No88¢ |
| Bournemouth | 11% | — | +1.0 | $47 | $5.3K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes11¢No90¢ |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 8% | −0.5 | −6.0 | $76 | $15.2K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes8¢No92¢ |
| Leeds United | 6.6% | 0 | +1.3 | $0 | $3.3K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes6.6¢No93¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 96% | 0 | 0 | $0 | $2.2K | 14 Jun 2027 | Yes96¢No3.9¢ |
| Chelsea | 64% | +1.5 | −1.5 | $678 | $1.3K | 14 Jun 2027 | Yes64¢No36¢ |
| Liverpool | 62% | — | +2.0 | $177 | $1.2K | 14 Jun 2027 | Yes62¢No38¢ |
| Brighton | 54% | +0.5 | +12 | $2 | $4.4K | 14 Jun 2027 | Yes54¢No46¢ |
| Manchester City | 42% | +1.0 | −12 | $591 | $1.7K | 30 May 2027 | Yes42¢No59¢ |
| Manchester United | 20% | +1.5 | — | $0 | $2.6K | 30 May 2027 | Yes20¢No80¢ |
| Brentford | 15% | −1.5 | −3.0 | $84 | $783 | 14 Jun 2027 | Yes15¢No85¢ |
| Tottenham | 13% | +5.7 | +5.8 | $348 | $2.2K | 30 May 2027 | Yes13¢No87¢ |
| Aston Villa | 12% | +1.4 | −0.9 | $0 | $345 | 14 Jun 2027 | Yes12¢No88¢ |
| Leeds United | 9.3% | +6.7 | 0 | $123 | $214 | 14 Jun 2027 | Yes9.3¢No91¢ |
| Newcastle United | 7.5% | +1.0 | +2.5 | $0 | $332 | 14 Jun 2027 | Yes7.5¢No93¢ |
| Sunderland | 6.9% | +2.5 | +2.2 | $0 | $813 | 30 May 2027 | Yes6.9¢No93¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 89% | −2.0 | +1.0 | $164 | $2.2K | 14 Jun 2027 | Yes89¢No12¢ |
| Chelsea | 36% | +1.5 | +7.0 | $0 | $491 | 14 Jun 2027 | Yes36¢No65¢ |
| Manchester City | 34% | +5.5 | −11 | $452 | $2.5K | 14 Jun 2027 | Yes34¢No67¢ |
| Liverpool | 23% | — | +2.5 | $0 | $2.2K | 14 Jun 2027 | Yes23¢No77¢ |
| Brighton | 23% | +3.4 | +11 | $0 | $1.2K | 14 Jun 2027 | Yes23¢No77¢ |
| Manchester United | 5.5% | — | −2.0 | $99 | $1.5K | 14 Jun 2027 | Yes5.5¢No95¢ |
| Everton | 4.6% | 0 | 0 | $0 | $624 | 14 Jun 2027 | Yes4.6¢No95¢ |
| Coventry City | 4.0% | 0 | +1.8 | $0 | $1.4K | 14 Jun 2027 | Yes4.0¢No96¢ |
| Brentford | 3.3% | — | −1.8 | $0 | $531 | 14 Jun 2027 | Yes3.3¢No97¢ |
| Newcastle United | 2.9% | — | −1.2 | $0 | $485 | 14 Jun 2027 | Yes2.9¢No97¢ |
| Hull City | 2.7% | 0 | 0 | $0 | $1.6K | 14 Jun 2027 | Yes2.7¢No97¢ |
| Aston Villa | 2.5% | 0 | 0 | $0 | $390 | 14 Jun 2027 | Yes2.5¢No98¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 96% | 0 | 0 | $0 | $3.3K | 1 Sep 2027 | Yes96¢No4.3¢ |
| Chelsea | 84% | +8.5 | +13 | $0 | $2.1K | 1 Sep 2027 | Yes84¢No17¢ |
| Liverpool | 77% | — | +17 | $0 | $3.1K | 1 Jun 2027 | Yes77¢No24¢ |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | 53% | — | +12 | $0 | $3.3K | 1 Sep 2027 | Yes53¢No48¢ |
| Manchester City | 39% | +5.5 | −18 | $236 | $1.1K | 1 Sep 2027 | Yes39¢No62¢ |
| Brentford | 21% | — | −0.5 | $0 | $1.5K | 1 Sep 2027 | Yes21¢No79¢ |
| Bournemouth | 21% | +2.9 | +14 | $0 | $224 | 1 Sep 2027 | Yes21¢No79¢ |
| Manchester United | 20% | — | −18 | $0 | $3.8K | 1 Jun 2027 | Yes20¢No80¢ |
| Aston Villa | 19% | +0.5 | −0.5 | $0 | $2.1K | 1 Sep 2027 | Yes19¢No81¢ |
| Fulham | 16% | 0 | +0.8 | $0 | $807 | 1 Jun 2027 | Yes16¢No84¢ |
| Tottenham Hotspur | 14% | +3.9 | +7.1 | $0 | $1.4K | 1 Jun 2027 | Yes14¢No86¢ |
| Everton | 12% | 0 | −1.7 | $0 | $1.1K | 1 Sep 2027 | Yes12¢No88¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Manchester City be relegated from the Premier League in 2026-27? | 54% | −1.0 | +24 | $127 | $5.5K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes54¢No47¢ |
A title is a race. A rival's result changes the possible points and remaining paths for other clubs, so a title price can move without that club playing.
These can be different conditions. European place allocation and the exact contract's rules matter; never substitute one question's price for the other without checking this season's conditions.
Start with the official table and remaining fixtures. The standings are observed facts; a percentage for the effect of a particular future result needs a separately evaluated season model.
The next fixture, official lineup and confirmed club reports are meaningful checkpoints. Use Follow on the race and compare its recorded history when you return.
The forecast evidence record reports a chronological holdout comparison with simple baselines. It also distinguishes a retrospective test from a forecast recorded before kickoff and from a comparison with executable betting prices.
The recent multiple compares the latest complete seven-day daily average with the whole aligned thirty-day daily average, including those seven days. It separates a rise in interest from a famous name's consistently large readership.
The configured award field includes named contenders beyond the highest-priced six. Explicit article mappings reduce name confusion; a missing or failed article read stays missing.
A player can connect an award, a club and a competition. Use the award race and the season rooms together; affiliations and eligibility should be checked against current official sources.
Article requests do not tell us why somebody read. An explanation needs dated reporting from the original club, competition or award source, linked beside the observation.
These are requests for the mapped English Wikipedia articles from Wikimedia's user-agent class. They are not unique readers, votes, verified human identities or forecasts of match or award outcomes.
Return to the race's Changes view for dated readings and its Evidence view for sources. A prior observation is retained as history; a newer price or report does not rewrite what was known before.
Prices are read from Polymarket's public markets and trades and describe what traders pay, not a forecast or recommendation by Vultax.
YOUR RESEARCH NOTEBOOK
Choose a real market question, test one condition at a time, and keep a dated forecast with your reasoning.
Venue close: 30 May 2027, 23:59 UTC · Market read 25 Oct 2026, 05:39 UTC
Both branches start at the observed market price. Adjust them to express your own judgment.
YOUR CONDITIONAL ESTIMATE
65.5%
Market reference 65.5% · +0.0 pts
Weighted by your assumptions using total probability. This is one condition at a time; correlated conditions are not combined. It is a personal scenario, not a calibrated Vultax forecast.
Saved forecasts are private to your account. Saving does not place a paper trade or send a notification.
Scores are pending until a final binary market resolution is verified. Repeated saves are not independent predictions.
Anyone can explore the lab and download a draft. Sign in to keep a forecast across devices.
Scores remain blank until an observed result exists. Repeated updates to one election are one event.
2024-25 / 2025-26 · Training used earlier matches only. Historical first-available timestamps were not archived.
| Model | Brier | Log loss |
|---|---|---|
| Base rates | 0.6565 | 1.0835 |
| Elo | 0.6059 | 1.0117 |
| Poisson | 0.6044 | 1.0091 |
| Dixon–Coles | 0.6043 | 1.0088 |
The test supports improvement over simple base rates. Superiority over Poisson or Elo, and profitable betting alpha, are not established. No historical executable market-price benchmark was evaluated.
Premier League match outcomes only; these are not Champions League title probabilities.
New live probabilities are withheld. The result feed is more than fourteen days behind; the daily refresh will check for new coverage. Latest completed match: 2026-09-20.
Snapshot: · epl-dixon-coles-v1
Model source: 525bbba74409dd2111f08533ea21dbef65caa87c
Input hash: 460166c2993078fc0ade1a12f787d7576d2b484af4b123502edf13cd539901d6
Internal hash chain verified. This is not independent timestamp notarization; administrators can replace files.
Sources: 1
