Prices as of 5 Nov 2026, 09:45 UTC. France votes in two rounds: if nobody takes more than half of the votes on 18 April, the top two meet on 2 May, with a different electorate behind each.
Christine Lagarde: Down 0.9 points on the day, against a week that ran up 6.4: 2.2× its normal daily swing, the other way. 3 other outcomes moved by more than noise.
Down 0.9 points on the day, against a week that ran up 6.4: 2.2× its normal daily swing, the other way.
Up 3.3 points in 24 hours, 4.7× its normal daily swing.
Up 1.3 points in 24 hours, 3.3× its normal daily swing.
Down 6.0 points in a week, 2.3× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days.
Research is free. Create a free account to save room watches and use your Vi allowance.
| Outcome | 30 days ago | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 43% | 43% |
| David Lisnard | 12% | 16% |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 13% | 13% |
| Édouard Philippe | 18% | 12% |
| Christine Lagarde | <1% | 6.8% |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 1.4% | 2.6% |
| Outcome | Bid / ask | Within 2¢ | $1K pays | $10K pays |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 43¢/43¢ | $48.9K, $70.9K | 43¢+0.0 | 43¢+0.4 |
| David Lisnard | 16¢/16¢ | $15.1K, $25.5K | 16¢+0.0 | 16¢+0.2 |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 12¢/13¢ | $208K, $34.2K | 13¢+0.0 | 13¢+0.2 |
| Édouard Philippe | 11¢/12¢ | $122K, $15.6K | 12¢+0.0 | 13¢+0.9 |
| Christine Lagarde | 6.7¢/6.8¢ | $64.4K, $16.0K | 6.9¢+0.1 | 7.8¢+1.0 |
Vultax Research: how Polymarket trader leaderboards compare
Vultax Research: what copying a Polymarket trade 30 seconds late costs
Last recorded read: 2026-11-05 09:33 UTC
Up 2.0 points in a week, 1.9× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days.
Up 1.3 points in 24 hours, 3.3× its normal daily swing.
Up 3.3 points in 24 hours, 4.7× its normal daily swing.
Up 1.8 points in 24 hours, 2.6× its normal daily swing.
Down 6.0 points in a week, 2.3× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days.
Down 1.1 points on the day, against a week that ran up 6.4: 2.9× its normal daily swing, the other way.
Up 1.0 points in 24 hours, 2.5× its normal daily swing. Up 2.0 on the week. At its highest in 30 days.
Down 6.0 points in a week, 2.3× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days.
Down 0.8 points on the day, against a week that ran up 7.1: 1.9× its normal daily swing, the other way.
Down 1.5 points in a week, 1.4× a normal week for this contract.
Up 1.5 points in 24 hours, 3.8× its normal daily swing.
Down 3.4 points in a week, 1.8× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days.
Down 1.2 points in 24 hours, 3.0× its normal daily swing. Down 1.9 on the week.
Up 1.7 points in a week, 1.6× a normal week for this contract.
Up 7.4 points in a week, 7.0× a normal week for this contract.
Down 6.0 points in a week, 2.3× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days.
Down 1.0 points in 24 hours, 2.5× its normal daily swing.
Down 0.8 points on the day, against a week that ran up 7.9: 2.0× its normal daily swing, the other way.
Up 3.0 points in 24 hours, 7.5× its normal daily swing. Up 4.0 on the week. At its highest in 30 days.
Down 4.3 points in a week, 2.3× a normal week for this contract.
Up 8.6 points in a week, 8.2× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days.
Down 7.0 points in a week, 2.6× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days.
Up 2.0 points in a week, 1.9× a normal week for this contract.
Down 0.6 points on the day, against a week that ran up 6.5: 1.6× its normal daily swing, the other way.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 43% | — | — | $71.9K | $774K |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 96% | — | — | $5.5K |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 90% | — | — |
| Market | Resolved as | Total volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Curfew in a major French city by...? | October 24 | $216K | 19 Oct 2026 |
| France United Left Primary Winner | Canceled | $271K | 18 Oct 2026 |
| National Rally Group Seat Count after French Senate Election? | 13+ | $28.4K | 12 Oct 2026 |
Each recorded move in the French Election 2027 room beside the room's own sourced events near it: reports by when they were published, calendar and record entries by the date they name. Close in time is not a cause: Vultax has not confirmed why any of these prices moved.
Up 2.0 points in a week, 1.9× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days.
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the 24 hours before this recorded read. Cause unconfirmed.
Up 1.3 points in 24 hours, 3.3× its normal daily swing.
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the 24 hours before this recorded read. Cause unconfirmed.
Up 3.3 points in 24 hours, 4.7× its normal daily swing.
This room reads every open Polymarket market on the next French presidential election and sorts it into the winner, who runs and the matchups inside each camp. France votes in two rounds: if nobody takes more than half of the votes in the first, the top two meet a fortnight later.
A price is the cost of a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens, so 62¢ reads as a 62% chance. In a market with many named outcomes the prices should add up to roughly 100%; a gap is the venue's spread and fees, not a free lunch.
The two-round system is why first-round polling and the winner market can disagree. A candidate can lead every first-round poll and still be the underdog in the contract, because the runoff is a different electorate: the voters of every eliminated candidate choose again. Markets on who reaches the ballot are a third question, decided by sponsorship signatures and by the courts.
Each market resolves on its own written rules, including the deadline, the resolution source and what counts as the event. Two markets on the same subject with different wording can and do trade at different prices, so read the rules on the market page before comparing them.
| 19 Apr 2027 |
| Yes43¢No57¢ |
| David Lisnard | 16% | — | — | $116K | $656K | 19 Apr 2027 | Yes16¢No84¢ |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 13% | — | — | $81.7K | $754K | 19 Apr 2027 | Yes13¢No88¢ |
| Édouard Philippe | 12% | — | — | $24.1K | $644K | 19 Apr 2027 | Yes12¢No89¢ |
| Christine Lagarde | 6.8% | — | — | $102K | $444K | 19 Apr 2027 | Yes6.8¢No93¢ |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 2.6% | — | — | $23.6K | $281K | 19 Apr 2027 | Yes2.6¢No97¢ |
| Jordan Bardella | 2.1% | — | — | $23.0K | $214K | 19 Apr 2027 | Yes2.1¢No98¢ |
| François Hollande | 2.1% | — | — | $28.9K | $197K | 19 Apr 2027 | Yes2.1¢No98¢ |
| Dominique de Villepin | 2% | — | — | $81.9K | $289K | 19 Apr 2027 | Yes2¢No98¢ |
| Éric Zemmour | <1% | — | — | $27.7K | $371K | 19 Apr 2027 | Yes0.75¢No99.25¢ |
| Gabriel Attal | <1% | — | — | $44.1K | $447K | 19 Apr 2027 | Yes0.55¢No99.45¢ |
| Bruno Retailleau | <1% | — | — | $40.5K | $269K | 19 Apr 2027 | Yes0.45¢No99.55¢ |
| 1 Jul 2027 |
| Yes96¢No3.6¢ |
| Marine Le Pen | 91% | — | — | $18 | $18.2K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes91¢No9.5¢ |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 86% | — | — | $0 | $12.0K | 18 Apr 2027 | Yes86¢No14¢ |
| David Lisnard | 83% | — | — | $85 | $15.4K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes83¢No17¢ |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 82% | — | — | $19 | $11.9K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes82¢No18¢ |
| Fabien Roussel | 81% | — | — | $0 | $11.2K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes81¢No19¢ |
| Édouard Philippe | 79% | — | — | $314 | $11.8K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes79¢No21¢ |
| Éric Zemmour | 68% | — | — | $370 | $21.3K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes68¢No32¢ |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 63% | — | — | $0 | $20.4K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes63¢No37¢ |
| Dominique de Villepin | 40% | — | — | $912 | $25.7K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes40¢No60¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominique de Villepin | 79% | — | — | $9 | $2.4K | 18 Apr 2027 | Yes79¢No21¢ |
| François Hollande | 17% | — | — | $241 | $11.0K | 18 Apr 2027 | Yes17¢No83¢ |
| Yaël Braun-Pivet | 8.1% | — | — | $0 | $12.6K | 18 Apr 2027 | Yes8.1¢No92¢ |
| Gérald Darmanin | 5.5% | — | — | $0 | $12.3K | 18 Apr 2027 | Yes5.5¢No95¢ |
| Manuel Bompard | 4.5% | — | — | $0 | $11.3K | 18 Apr 2027 | Yes4.5¢No96¢ |
| Élisabeth Borne | 3.6% | — | — | $1.8K | $11.8K | 18 Apr 2027 | Yes3.6¢No96¢ |
| Sébastien Lecornu | 3.0% | — | — | $100 | $14.4K | 18 Apr 2027 | Yes3.0¢No97¢ |
| François Bayrou | 2.9% | — | — | $0 | $12.3K | 18 Apr 2027 | Yes2.9¢No97¢ |
| Carole Delga | 2.8% | — | — | $0 | $13.2K | 18 Apr 2027 | Yes2.8¢No97¢ |
| Valérie Pécresse | 2.5% | — | — | $200 | $11.9K | 18 Apr 2027 | Yes2.5¢No98¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Retailleau | 35% | — | — | $33 | $812 | 13 Mar 2027 | Yes35¢No65¢ |
| David Lisnard | 25% | — | — | $0 | $10.9K | 13 Mar 2027 | Yes25¢No76¢ |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 24% | — | — | $0 | $900 | 13 Mar 2027 | Yes24¢No77¢ |
| Édouard Philippe | 20% | — | — | $0 | $903 | 13 Mar 2027 | Yes20¢No80¢ |
| Gabriel Attal | 7.6% | — | — | $4 | $940 | 13 Mar 2027 | Yes7.6¢No92¢ |
| Marine Tondelier | 7.6% | — | — | $0 | $1.2K | 13 Mar 2027 | Yes7.6¢No92¢ |
| François Ruffin | 7.1% | — | — | $0 | $1.3K | 13 Mar 2027 | Yes7.1¢No93¢ |
| Dominique de Villepin | 5.5% | — | — | $0 | $1.2K | 13 Mar 2027 | Yes5.5¢No95¢ |
| Fabien Roussel | 5.1% | — | — | $0 | $1.3K | 13 Mar 2027 | Yes5.1¢No95¢ |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 4.7% | — | — | $0 | $821 | 13 Mar 2027 | Yes4.7¢No95¢ |
| $18.5K |
| 19 Apr 2027 |
| Yes90¢No10.0¢ |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 50% | — | — | $522 | $26.1K | 19 Apr 2027 | Yes50¢No50¢ |
| Édouard Philippe | 22% | — | — | $1.8K | $18.5K | 19 Apr 2027 | Yes22¢No78¢ |
| David Lisnard | 18% | — | — | $12 | $42.4K | 19 Apr 2027 | Yes18¢No82¢ |
| Jordan Bardella | 7.5% | — | — | $0 | $15.2K | 19 Apr 2027 | Yes7.5¢No93¢ |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 6% | — | — | $1.0K | $19.8K | 19 Apr 2027 | Yes6¢No94¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 43% | — | — | $1.8K | $30.6K | 18 Apr 2027 | Yes43¢No57¢ |
| David Lisnard | 19% | — | — | $113 | $26.0K | 18 Apr 2027 | Yes19¢No82¢ |
| Édouard Philippe | 18% | — | — | $2.5K | $18.5K | 18 Apr 2027 | Yes18¢No83¢ |
| Marine Le Pen | 8% | — | — | $0 | $22.1K | 18 Apr 2027 | Yes8¢No92¢ |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 7.0% | — | — | $0 | $21.8K | 18 Apr 2027 | Yes7.0¢No93¢ |
| Christine Lagarde | 4.8% | — | — | $0 | $18.7K | 18 Apr 2027 | Yes4.8¢No95¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 30% | — | — | $39 | $32.1K | 18 Apr 2027 | Yes30¢No71¢ |
| Édouard Philippe | 28% | — | — | $329 | $20.6K | 18 Apr 2027 | Yes28¢No73¢ |
| David Lisnard | 15% | — | — | $0 | $22.6K | 18 Apr 2027 | Yes15¢No85¢ |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 15% | — | — | $0 | $17.5K | 18 Apr 2027 | Yes15¢No85¢ |
| Christine Lagarde | 5.2% | — | — | $0 | $7.7K | 18 Apr 2027 | Yes5.2¢No95¢ |
| Marine Le Pen | 5.0% | — | — | $0 | $7.9K | 18 Apr 2027 | Yes5.0¢No95¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 85% | — | — | $23 | $64.9K | 18 Apr 2027 | Yes85¢No15¢ |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 8.8% | — | — | $23 | $42.4K | 18 Apr 2027 | Yes8.8¢No91¢ |
| Christine Lagarde | 3.4% | — | — | $23 | $25.7K | 18 Apr 2027 | Yes3.4¢No97¢ |
| Édouard Philippe | 3.1% | — | — | $143 | $25.9K | 18 Apr 2027 | Yes3.1¢No97¢ |
| David Lisnard | 2.2% | — | — | $23 | $21.8K | 18 Apr 2027 | Yes2.2¢No98¢ |
| Jordan Bardella | 2.1% | — | — | $23 | $23.1K | 18 Apr 2027 | Yes2.1¢No98¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will anyone win France’s presidential election in the first round? | 5.1% | — | — | $162 | $23.0K | 19 Apr 2027 | Yes5.1¢No95¢ |
Up 1.8 points in 24 hours, 2.6× its normal daily swing.
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the 24 hours before this recorded read. Cause unconfirmed.
Down 6.0 points in a week, 2.3× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days.
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the 24 hours before this recorded read. Cause unconfirmed.
Prices are read from Polymarket's public markets and trades and describe what traders pay, not a forecast or recommendation by Vultax.
Your notebook
Market rulesCloses 19 Apr 2027, 03:59 UTCRead 5 Nov 2026, 09:45 UTC
Same as the market so far
Your scenario
43.0%
Market 43.0% · +0.0 pts
Your scenario, not a Vultax forecast.
Private to your account.
Scored when the market resolves.
Sign in to keep forecasts across devices.
