French Election 2027 prediction markets

This room reads every open Polymarket market on the next French presidential election and prices the winner beside the same question on Kalshi. France votes in two rounds: if nobody takes more than half of the votes in the first, the top two meet a fortnight later.

A price is the cost of a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens, so 62¢ reads as a 62% chance. In a market with many named outcomes the prices should add up to roughly 100%; a gap is the venue's spread and fees, not a free lunch.

The two-round system is why first-round polling and the winner market can disagree. A candidate can lead every first-round poll and still be the underdog in the contract, because the runoff is a different electorate: the voters of every eliminated candidate choose again. Markets on who reaches the ballot are a third question, decided by sponsorship signatures and by the courts.

Each market resolves on its own written rules, including the deadline, the resolution source and what counts as the event. Two markets on the same subject with different wording can and do trade at different prices, so read the rules on the market page before comparing them.