Analytics
Vultax does not execute orders. These controls open the official Polymarket market or route back into the Vultax predictions terminal.
“Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?” is a politics prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Next French Presidential Election”. The Yes price is the market's implied probability that the question resolves Yes. Quotes can change as orders are updated or filled; a quoted price does not guarantee an available fill at that price.
Trading is open until Jan 1, 2028 UTC. As of Sep 28, 3:58 AM UTC, Yes trades at 8.2¢, an 8.2% implied chance, $43.61K traded in the last 24 hours, $226.66K resting in the order book, a 0.2% bid-ask spread.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 304 daily price points from Nov 14, 2025 UTC to Sep 28, 2026 UTC (Yes between 1.4% and 16.5%); 531 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 67.0% of the loaded shares; 500 recent public fills from 219 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
Current public quote is shown when Vultax depth snapshots are unavailable.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 304 points · 14 Nov 2025 – 28 Sep 2026 · axis zoomed to 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Nov 2025 | 16.5% |
| 28 Sep 2026 | 8.2% |
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 814.42K |
| neutralwave23 | Yes | 135.89K |
| Vietnam7 | No |
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ implies 21.5%, but fees, available depth and who participates can affect that price. A market price is not a calibrated forecast or a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Reported dollars resting in the order book. The available size on your side, at the prices you would accept, determines what can fill. A large total alone does not guarantee an execution near the quoted price.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Observed closes of the Yes price over the market's life. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| 90.5K |
| Alouraz | Yes | 80.84K |
| FANTOMAS. | Yes | 52.28K |
| roroelguapo | Yes | 38.76K |
| frenchfish | Yes | 28.41K |
| mignonpignon | Yes | 27.39K |
| Venimous | Yes | 25.28K |
| flovertaco | No | 24.75K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
