Analytics
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?
politicsActive
Closes Apr 19, 2027 UTC
Yes
17.1%
No
83.0%
Yes costs 17.05¢No costs 82.95¢
24h Volume
$53.1K
Total volume
$8.0M
Liquidity
$597.7K
Closes
Apr 19, 2027 UTC
Topic roomFrench Election 2027World elections
Where it stands
Yes is at 17.1%, about where the market opened on 14 Nov 2025.
Across the 347 daily closes on record from 14 Nov 2025 to 14 Nov 2026 (20 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 17.9% on 14 Nov 2026 and the lowest 1.4% on 11 Jul 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 14.8%; a month before, 12.8%. Its largest one-day move was 12 points down, to 4.5% on 15 Nov 2025.
David Lisnard ranks second of the 46 outcomes in “Next French Presidential Election”. Marine Le Pen leads at 47.3%; Jean-Luc Mélenchon is at 13.5%.
Across the latest 500 trades, $73.37K bought Yes and $62.65K bought No; the largest was a $24.52K buy of Yes at 17.2¢.
Ten wallets hold 55.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 19 Apr 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Nov 14, 9:55 PM UTC
Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 347 points, 14 Nov 2025 – 14 Nov 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Nov 2025 | 16.5% |
| 14 Nov 2026 | 17.1% |
All outcomes
Next French Presidential Election
- 1Marine Le Pen$5.64M traded47.3%
- 2David LisnardThis market$7.99M traded17.1%
- 3Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Largest holders
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Rapid-Alphabet-Winner | No | 1.81M |
| LlamaLoco0000 | No | 510.99K |
| neutralwave23 | Yes | 270.19K |
Rules
What settles this market
Polymarket settles this market on a consensus of credible reporting. Sources named in the rules: interieur.gouv.fr. Trading closes on 19 Apr 2027.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/next-french-presidential-election
Dates
Topic room
Read this market in context
- French Election 2027 oddsWho will win the 2027 French presidential election?
- World elections oddsWhat do prediction markets say about the next national elections?
What to watch in French Election 2027
- Eligibility rulings, which can remove a leading name from the ballot before a vote is cast
- Which candidate each bloc settles on: the centre, the mainstream right and the left have each split before
- First-round polling, and second-round hypotheticals against each likely opponent