A month earlier it was a coin toss: on the evening of 1 Oct Lamine Yamal reached 60.8% and Kane fell to 31.6%. The lead changed hands 18 times before Kane went ahead for good on 6 Oct. Vultax read the market 2,405 times on the way in; this is that record.
Last Polymarket price before the start: 76.7%
UEFA reportPolymarket read, 24 Oct 2026, 13:43 UTC: Harry Kane 66.15¢, Kylian Mbappé 23.55¢, Lamine Yamal 8.35¢, of 14 men's contracts then priced. Displayed prices, not trades or a Vultax forecast.
Result: Harry Kane won the men's award, as UEFA reported. Polymarket's market settles under its own rules, apart from the award.
2026 odds researchCheckpoint data (JSON)The 2026 Ballon d'Or is over: at the London Palladium on 26 October, Harry Kane won the men's award and Alexia Putellas the women's, as reported by UEFA. Polymarket's contracts settle on their own rules, separately from the award; the prices still listed on this page are the latest read of contracts left open, not the result. Prices as of 14 Nov 2026, 21:40 UTC.
Each row is one recorded Polymarket market on a Ballon d'Or winner, not one ceremony, and not every award is included (no 2026 women's row): the outcome priced highest 30 days, 7 days and one day before the ceremony, and the winner's own price at the same moments. The 2025 men's and women's awards are two markets from one ceremony; 2023 had only a yes/no market on Messi. The open cycle is read live until its result is in.
The day-before favourite won 4 of 5 markets scored here; the eventual result traded at 60.6% on average that day.
User reads of each leading player's English Wikipedia article, 15 Oct 2026 to 13 Nov 2026 (30 days), beside “Ballon d'Or Winner 2027”. Shares are of the names listed here. A price far ahead of attention is a reason to look closer, not evidence of anything on its own.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamine Yamal | 25% | — | — | $33 | $25.9K |
Each recorded move in the Ballon d'Or room beside the room's own sourced events near it: reports by when they were published, calendar and record entries by the date they name. Close in time is not a cause: Vultax has not confirmed why any of these prices moved.
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the day ending at this daily close. Cause unconfirmed.
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the day ending at this daily close. Cause unconfirmed.
Up 3.5 points in a week, 2.4× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days. Volume is 2.6× a normal day, so money came with it.
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the 24 hours before this recorded read. Cause unconfirmed.
This room reads every open Polymarket market on the Ballon d'Or, men's and women's, and keeps a scored record of selected past winner markets: the outcome the market priced highest 30 days, 7 days and one day before the ceremony, and what the winner was priced at the same moments.
A price is the cost of a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens, so 62¢ reads as a 62% chance. In a market with many named outcomes the prices should add up to roughly 100%; a gap is the venue's spread and fees, not a free lunch.
The Ballon d'Or is decided by a jury of journalists, one from each of the countries at the top of FIFA's rankings: 100 for the men's award and 50 for the women's in 2024. France Football has run it with UEFA since 2024. The votes are cast weeks before the ceremony, so the result can be known before the night: in 2024 Real Madrid stayed away after learning that Vinícius Júnior had not won, while the market still priced him above 90% the day before.
Each market resolves on its own written rules, including the deadline, the resolution source and what counts as the event. Two markets on the same subject with different wording can and do trade at different prices, so read the rules on the market page before comparing them.
Read the latest men's and women's prices beside the time they were observed. The Changes view preserves earlier readings; a price change alone does not tell us its cause.
The room kept the men's market only; no women's price is recorded here.
Men's winner market, read 26 Oct 2026, 19:49 UTC
Prices are Polymarket's displayed prices as the Vultax room read them about every 15 minutes, drawn here at the first read of each six hours. They are not trades, the market's settlement or a Vultax forecast, and the winners are UEFA's. The read time is the room's clock; Polymarket's own update time was not kept.
Prices are Polymarket's daily closing prices from its public price history, read at the last close before each checkpoint; outcomes that traded less than $1,000 over their life are left out, and a new market's opening 50% placeholder is not counted as a price.
Source: Wikimedia pageviews, user reads of each English Wikipedia article, read 14 Nov 2026
| Yes25¢No76¢ |
| Kylian Mbappé | 21% | — | — | $40 | $27.4K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes21¢No80¢ |
| Raphinha | 13% | — | — | $0 | $31.9K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes13¢No88¢ |
| Michael Olise | 10% | — | — | $0 | $24.8K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes10¢No90¢ |
| Desire Doue | 8% | — | — | $0 | $24.2K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes8¢No92¢ |
| Erling Haaland | 5.2% | — | — | $0 | $25.1K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes5.2¢No95¢ |
| Harry Kane | 4.5% | — | — | $0 | $24.8K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes4.5¢No96¢ |
| Jude Bellingham | 3.8% | — | — | $0 | $24.2K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes3.8¢No96¢ |
| Declan Rice | 3.1% | — | — | $319 | $26.1K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes3.1¢No97¢ |
| Ousmane Dembélé | 2.8% | — | — | $0 | $24.6K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes2.8¢No97¢ |
| Fabian Ruiz | 2.4% | — | — | $0 | $24.7K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes2.4¢No98¢ |
| Vinícius Júnior | 2.4% | — | — | $0 | $2.9K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes2.4¢No98¢ |
| Julian Alvarez | 2% | — | — | $0 | $24.1K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes2¢No98¢ |
| Rayan Cherki | 1.9% | — | — | $0 | $25.2K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes1.9¢No98¢ |
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the day ending at this daily close. Cause unconfirmed.
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the day ending at this daily close. Cause unconfirmed.
The jury votes before the ceremony. Later prices can react to reporting or expectations about an outcome already decided by those ballots. The official award and each market's settlement remain separate records.
Winning implies a top-three and top-five finish. The companion's placing calculation shows what winner prices imply under its stated ranking rule, beside the separately traded markets. It is not an independent jury forecast.
Compare each named contender's Wikipedia reading with its own recent baseline. A popular player can remain a long shot: article reads measure interest, not ballots, and the reason for a spike needs a source.
The women's award has its own candidates, trading depth and resolution rules. Its evidence should be read separately from the men's field, including where the listed market is thin or incomplete.
The record compares fixed pre-ceremony price readings in selected past winner markets with the declared winner. A handful of recorded markets, not every award, is a small historical sample, not proof that the next favourite is correctly priced.
The recent multiple compares the latest complete seven-day daily average with the whole aligned thirty-day daily average, including those seven days. It separates a rise in interest from a famous name's consistently large readership.
The configured award field includes named contenders beyond the highest-priced six. Explicit article mappings reduce name confusion; a missing or failed article read stays missing.
A player can connect an award, a club and a competition. Use the award race and the season rooms together; affiliations and eligibility should be checked against current official sources.
Article requests do not tell us why somebody read. An explanation needs dated reporting from the original club, competition or award source, linked beside the observation.
These are requests for the mapped English Wikipedia articles from Wikimedia's user-agent class. They are not unique readers, votes, verified human identities or forecasts of match or award outcomes.
Return to the race's Changes view for dated readings and its Evidence view for sources. A prior observation is retained as history; a newer price or report does not rewrite what was known before.