Lamine Yamal: Up 5.5 points in 24 hours, 6.9× its normal daily swing. At its highest in 30 days. 3 other outcomes moved by more than noise.
Up 5.5 points in 24 hours, 6.9× its normal daily swing. At its highest in 30 days.
Down 1.9 points in 24 hours, 4.8× its normal daily swing. Down 3.0 on the week.
Down 1.5 points in 24 hours, 2.7× its normal daily swing. At its lowest in 30 days.
Down 1.7 points in 24 hours, 2.2× its normal daily swing.
Trade Ballon d'Or on paper, free
A free account gives you a practice balance at live Polymarket prices, a portfolio that marks itself, and Vi on every market. No card.
Each line is the price of one outcome on Polymarket, read as a probability. Hover or tap to read every line on the same day.
| Outcome | 30 days ago | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 64% | 56% |
| Lamine Yamal | 16% | 27% |
| Kylian Mbappé | 7.4% | 7.0% |
| Rodri | 6.5% | 4.5% |
| Lionel Messi | 2.5% | 3.5% |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 2.3% | 1.4% |
Dollars traded in the last 24 hours, event by event, with the outcome leading each one.
The order book behind “Ballon d'Or Winner 2026”, read a minute ago.
| Outcome | Bid / ask | Within 2¢ | $1K pays | $10K pays |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 56¢/56¢ | $47.8K · $4.7K | 56¢+0.4 | |
| Lamine Yamal | 28¢/28¢ | $2.3K · $6.5K | 28¢+0.1 | |
| Kylian Mbappé | 6.8¢/7.0¢ | $1.9K · $639 | 8.1¢+1.1 | |
| Rodri | 4¢/5¢ | $2.1K · $4.8K | 5¢+0.0 | |
| Lionel Messi | 3.5¢/3.6¢ | $1.7K · $816 | 4.8¢+1.2 |
Average price a buy order of that size would pay against the offers resting now, and how many points that is above the best offer. “Within 2¢” is the dollars resting near the touch on the bid and the offer side.
Biggest holders in this market's two leading outcomes, valued at the current price. Open a name for the wallet's record on Vultax.
7 more positions in this market
Who holds the most on each side, valued at the current price, with each wallet's record one click away.
Vultax Research: how Polymarket trader leaderboards compare
Prints of $1,000 and more in the room's busiest markets, newest first.
9 more large trades in this room
Each print of $1,000 and more as it happens: who, which side, what price.
Every move in this room that cleared Vi IQ's "notable" line, stamped when it happened. Vultax has recorded this room since 25 Sep 2026.
9 earlier moves on record
The dated record of every meaningful move in this room: what moved, by how much against its own normal, and whether money came with it.
On Polymarket, “Ballon d'Or Winner 2026” has Harry Kane in front at 56%, on $335K traded across that market in the last 24 hours. This room reads 156 open markets across 4 Polymarket events, which together traded $341K over the same 24 hours and hold $8.6M of resting liquidity. Prices as of 27 Sep 2026, 09:53 UTC.
Each row is one Ballon d'Or Polymarket priced: the player priced highest 30 days, 7 days and one day before the ceremony, and the winner's own price at the same moments. 2023 had only a yes/no market on Messi. The open cycle is read live until its result is in.
The day-before favourite won 3 of 4 ceremonies scored here; the eventual result traded at 58% on average that day.
User reads of each leading player's English Wikipedia article, 28 Aug 2026 to 26 Sep 2026 (30 days), beside “Ballon d'Or Winner 2026”. Shares are of the names listed here. A price far ahead of attention is a reason to look closer, not evidence of anything on its own.
The men's award: one price per player Polymarket lists
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 56% | −0.7 | 0 | $27.7K | $136K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes56¢No44¢ |
| Lamine Yamal |
Presented the same night; a thinner market, placeholders left out
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexia Putellas | 94% | +7.5 | — | $407 | $1.5K | 27 Oct 2026 | Yes94¢No6.1¢ |
Each name is its own yes/no question on where the player finishes
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 94% | +0.5 | +2.8 | $2.2K | $13.5K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes94¢No6.5¢ |
Largest price changes in points, counted only on markets that traded at least $1,000 in the same 24 hours. The number beside each move is that market’s 24-hour volume.
Change in probability points since the same time the previous day
This room reads every open Polymarket market on the Ballon d'Or, men's and women's, and keeps a scored record of each past ceremony: the player the market priced highest 30 days, 7 days and one day before the ceremony, and what the winner was priced at the same moments.
A price is the cost of a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens, so 62¢ reads as a 62% chance. In a market with many named outcomes the prices should add up to roughly 100%; a gap is the venue's spread and fees, not a free lunch.
The Ballon d'Or is decided by a jury of journalists, one from each of the countries at the top of FIFA's rankings: 100 for the men's award and 50 for the women's in 2024. France Football has run it with UEFA since 2024. The votes are cast weeks before the ceremony, so the result can be known before the night: in 2024 Real Madrid stayed away after learning that Vinícius Júnior had not won, while the market still priced him above 90% the day before.
Each market resolves on its own written rules, including the deadline, the resolution source and what counts as the event. Two markets on the same subject with different wording can and do trade at different prices, so read the rules on the market page before comparing them.
Prices are Polymarket's daily closing prices from its public price history, read at the last close before each checkpoint; outcomes that traded less than $1,000 over their life are left out, and a new market's opening 50% placeholder is not counted as a price.
Source: Wikimedia pageviews · user reads of each English Wikipedia article · read 27 Sep 2026
| 28% |
| +6.0 |
| +5.5 |
| $80.6K |
| $119K |
| 1 Jan 2027 |
| Yes28¢No72¢ |
| Kylian Mbappé | 7.0% | −1.5 | −0.6 | $30.7K | $135K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes7.0¢No93¢ |
| Rodri | 4.5% | — | — | $18.6K | $175K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes4.5¢No96¢ |
| Lionel Messi | 3.5% | −1.2 | −3.7 | $62.1K | $163K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes3.5¢No96¢ |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 1.4% | −0.8 | −0.5 | $35.1K | $151K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes1.4¢No99¢ |
| Ousmane Dembélé | <1% | 0 | — | $15.5K | $282K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes0.9¢No99¢ |
| Fabian Ruiz | <1% | 0 | 0 | $16.1K | $220K | 31 Oct 2026 | Yes0.4¢No100¢ |
| Michael Olise | <1% | 0 | 0 | $16.7K | $280K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes0.3¢No100¢ |
| Erling Haaland | <1% | — | — | $28.6K | $271K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| Pau Cubarsi | <1% | 0 | — | $2.4K | $168K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| Jude Bellingham | <1% | — | — | $1.0K | $544K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| Lautaro Martinez | <1% | — | — | $3 | $877K | 31 Oct 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| Vinícius Júnior | <1% | — | — | $0 | $901K | 31 Oct 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
5 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Ewa Pajor | 3.4% | −4.5 | +2.8 | $0 | $1.9K | 27 Oct 2026 | Yes3.4¢No97¢ |
| Claudia Pina | 1.9% | — | −0.5 | $0 | $2.4K | 27 Oct 2026 | Yes1.9¢No98¢ |
| Mariona Caldentey | 1.3% | 0 | −1.8 | $0 | $2.2K | 27 Oct 2026 | Yes1.3¢No99¢ |
| Caroline Graham Hansen | 1.3% | — | −2.1 | $0 | $3.0K | 27 Oct 2026 | Yes1.3¢No99¢ |
| Klara Buhl | 1% | 0 | −1.9 | $0 | $3.2K | 27 Oct 2026 | Yes1¢No99¢ |
| Alessia Russo | <1% | — | 0 | $0 | $1.8K | 27 Oct 2026 | Yes0.3¢No100¢ |
| Vicky Lopez | <1% | 0 | 0 | $0 | $2.6K | 27 Oct 2026 | Yes0.3¢No100¢ |
| Lucy Bronze | <1% | — | 0 | $0 | $1.8K | 27 Oct 2026 | Yes0.2¢No100¢ |
| Lea Schuller | <1% | 0 | 0 | $0 | $1.4K | 27 Oct 2026 | Yes0.2¢No100¢ |
10 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Lamine Yamal | 86% | +4.0 | +5.0 | $150 | $4.9K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes86¢No15¢ |
| Kylian Mbappé | 57% | +0.5 | +0.5 | $54 | $3.9K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes57¢No43¢ |
| Lionel Messi | 35% | +4.0 | −6.5 | $991 | $3.9K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes35¢No66¢ |
| Rodri | 25% | — | −5.5 | $0 | $5.0K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes25¢No76¢ |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 11% | 0 | −5.7 | $8 | $4.8K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes11¢No89¢ |
| Pau Cubarsi | 10% | 0 | −6.7 | $363 | $4.4K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes10¢No90¢ |
| Ousmane Dembélé | 10% | +1.5 | −6.5 | $495 | $3.0K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes10¢No90¢ |
| Michael Olise | 5.7% | — | −6.5 | $0 | $2.6K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes5.7¢No94¢ |
| Erling Haaland | 3.4% | +1.3 | −1.6 | $0 | $1.6K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes3.4¢No97¢ |
9 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | 97% | −0.7 | −0.7 | $0 | $3.8K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes97¢No2.9¢ |
| Lamine Yamal | 94% | 0 | +2.9 | $5 | $9.0K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes94¢No6.2¢ |
| Kylian Mbappé | 85% | — | −5.0 | $0 | $4.9K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes85¢No16¢ |
| Lionel Messi | 68% | +4.5 | +7.0 | $875 | $5.8K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes68¢No32¢ |
| Rodri | 62% | — | −7.0 | $52 | $2.6K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes62¢No39¢ |
| Khvicha Kvaratskhelia | 34% | +1.0 | −17 | $43 | $5.9K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes34¢No67¢ |
| Ousmane Dembélé | 32% | — | −19 | $179 | $2.9K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes32¢No68¢ |
| Michael Olise | 32% | — | −7.5 | $27 | $2.9K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes32¢No69¢ |
| Erling Haaland | 11% | −3.5 | +5.5 | $294 | $694 | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes11¢No89¢ |
| Fabian Ruiz | 9.9% | −1.8 | +5.9 | $0 | $1.4K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes9.9¢No90¢ |
9 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
Prices are read from Polymarket's public markets and trades and describe what traders pay, not a forecast or recommendation by Vultax.
