Benjamin Netanyahu: Up 2.1 points on the day, against a week that ran down 15: 2.1× its normal daily swing, the other way. 3 other outcomes moved by more than noise.
Up 2.1 points on the day, against a week that ran down 15: 2.1× its normal daily swing, the other way.
Up 31 points in a week, 4.3× a normal week for this contract.
Down 2.0 points in 24 hours, 2.0× its normal daily swing. At its lowest in 30 days.
Up 1.8 points in a week, 1.5× a normal week for this contract.
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| Outcome | 30 days ago | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Gadi Eizenkot | 48% | 56% |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 36% | 30% |
| Avigdor Lieberman | 1.5% | 4.2% |
| Naftali Bennett | 8.5% | 3.3% |
| Outcome | Bid / ask | Within 2¢ | $1K pays | $10K pays |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gadi Eizenkot | 55¢/56¢ | $4.0K, $37.8K | 56¢+0.2 | 57¢+0.6 |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 30¢/30¢ | $17.1K, $7.9K | 30¢+0.5 | 31¢+1.4 |
| Avigdor Lieberman | 4.1¢/4.2¢ | $3.9K, $299 | 6.4¢+2.2 | 17¢+12 |
| Naftali Bennett | 3.2¢/3.4¢ | $1.2K, $362 | 5.6¢+2.2 | 18¢+15 |
| Yossi Cohen | 0.5¢/0.7¢ | $991, $3.5K | 1.2¢+0.5 | 2.6¢+1.9 |
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Last recorded read: 2026-11-05 13:48 UTC
Up 32 points in a week, 4.4× a normal week for this contract.
Up 2.7 points on the day, against a week that ran down 14: 2.7× its normal daily swing, the other way.
Down 2.3 points in 24 hours, 2.2× its normal daily swing. At its lowest in 30 days.
Down 16 points in a week, 6.2× a normal week for this contract.
Down 2.1 points in a week, 0.8× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days.
Up 2.3 points in a week, 1.9× a normal week for this contract.
Up 25 points in a week, 3.5× a normal week for this contract.
Down 0.7 points on the day, against a week that ran up 1.1: 1.6× its normal daily swing, the other way.
Down 20 points in a week, 7.4× a normal week for this contract.
Up 1.8 points in a week, 1.7× a normal week for this contract.
Down 1.2 points in 24 hours, 3.0× its normal daily swing.
Up 23 points in a week, 3.2× a normal week for this contract. 4 days running in the same direction.
Up 15 points in 24 hours, 5.6× its normal daily swing. Up 23 on the week.
Down 0.6 points on the day, against a week that ran up 1.2: 1.5× its normal daily swing, the other way.
Up 8.2 points in 24 hours, 3.0× its normal daily swing. Up 16 on the week.
Down 20 points in a week, 7.5× a normal week for this contract.
Down 17 points in a week, 6.6× a normal week for this contract. Volume is well under a normal day, so treat it with care.
Up 8.2 points in a week, 1.2× a normal week for this contract. 4 days running in the same direction. Volume is well under a normal day, so treat it with care.
Down 9.0 points in a week, 3.4× a normal week for this contract. Volume is well under a normal day, so treat it with care.
Down 15 points in a week, 2.1× a normal week for this contract. 4 days running in the same direction. Volume is well under a normal day, so treat it with care.
Up 2.4 points on the day, against a week that ran down 8.1: 2.4× its normal daily swing, the other way. Volume is well under a normal day, so treat it with care.
Up 4.6 points in 24 hours, 4.6× its normal daily swing. Up 8.6 on the week. Volume is well under a normal day, so treat it with care.
Up 2.2 points in a week, 2.1× a normal week for this contract. Volume is well under a normal day, so treat it with care.
Up 7.8 points in a week, 2.9× a normal week for this contract. Volume is well under a normal day, so treat it with care.
On Polymarket, “Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?” has Gadi Eizenkot in front at 56%, on $934K traded across that market in the last 24 hours. This room reads 89 open markets across 18 Polymarket events, which together traded $1.1M over the same 24 hours and hold $3.9M of resting liquidity. Prices as of 5 Nov 2026, 14:05 UTC.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gadi Eizenkot | 56% | — | — | $301K |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israeli election results in a hung parliament? | 43% | — | — | $1.8K |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Election: Arab party disqualified? | <1% | — | — | $10.6K |
| Market | Resolved as | Total volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Election: Ra'am # of seats? | 8+ | $635K | 4 Nov 2026 |
| Israel Election: The Joint List vote share? | 7.5%+ | $46.7K | 3 Nov 2026 |
| Israel Election: United Arab List (Ra'am) vote share? | 5.5%+ | $37.6K | 3 Nov 2026 |
| Israel Election: Yashar vote share? | 16-18% | $31.5K |
Each recorded move in the Israel Election 2026 room beside the room's own sourced events near it: reports by when they were published, calendar and record entries by the date they name. Close in time is not a cause: Vultax has not confirmed why any of these prices moved.
Up 32 points in a week, 4.4× a normal week for this contract.
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the 24 hours before this recorded read. Cause unconfirmed.
Up 2.7 points on the day, against a week that ran down 14: 2.7× its normal daily swing, the other way.
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the 24 hours before this recorded read. Cause unconfirmed.
Down 2.3 points in 24 hours, 2.2× its normal daily swing. At its lowest in 30 days.
This room reads every open Polymarket market on the Israeli general election and sorts it into the next prime minister, parties and seats, vote shares and the campaign itself. Each price carries its 24-hour volume and resting liquidity.
A price is the cost of a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens, so 62¢ reads as a 62% chance. In a market with many named outcomes the prices should add up to roughly 100%; a gap is the venue's spread and fees, not a free lunch.
Israel elects a 120-seat Knesset by national list, and a list needs 3.25% of the vote to enter at all. No party has ever won a majority alone, so the prime minister is whoever can assemble 61 seats afterwards. That is why the largest-party market and the prime minister market are different contracts that can point at different people, and why a small list hovering at the threshold can move both.
Each market resolves on its own written rules, including the deadline, the resolution source and what counts as the event. Two markets on the same subject with different wording can and do trade at different prices, so read the rules on the market page before comparing them.
| — |
| Yes56¢No44¢ |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 30% | — | — | $391K | $348K | — | Yes30¢No70¢ |
| Avigdor Lieberman | 4.2% | — | — | $53.1K | $93.8K | — | Yes4.2¢No96¢ |
| Naftali Bennett | 3.3% | — | — | $54.5K | $76.9K | — | Yes3.3¢No97¢ |
| Yossi Cohen | <1% | — | — | $35.2K | $480K | — | Yes0.6¢No99.4¢ |
| Israel Katz | <1% | — | — | $17.6K | $118K | — | Yes0.25¢No99.75¢ |
| Amir Ohana | <1% | — | — | $17.6K | $203K | — | Yes0.15¢No99.85¢ |
| Aviv Kohavi | <1% | — | — | $15.6K | $148K | — | Yes0.15¢No99.85¢ |
| Benny Gantz | <1% | — | — | $4.2K | $78.3K | — | Yes0.15¢No99.85¢ |
| Gilad Erdan | <1% | — | — | $919 | $183K | — | Yes0.15¢No99.85¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2027 | 45% | — | — | $87.2K | $34.2K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes45¢No55¢ |
| March 31, 2027 | 38% | — | — | $1.9K | $27.5K | 1 Apr 2027 | Yes38¢No62¢ |
| December 31 | 26% | — | — | $33.0K | $77.4K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes26¢No74¢ |
| — |
| Yes43¢No57¢ |
| 30 Nov 2026 |
| Yes0.8¢No99.2¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 57% | — | — | $3.6K | $21.9K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes57¢No43¢ |
| 2 | 33% | — | — | $697 | $20.9K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes33¢No67¢ |
| 3 | 8.6% | — | — | $999 | $25.3K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes8.6¢No91¢ |
| 4 | <1% | — | — | $0 | $9.4K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes0.45¢No99.55¢ |
| 5+ | <1% | — | — | $0 | $11.8K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes0.05¢No99.95¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No vote by February 28 | 48% | — | — | $58 | $473 | 1 Mar 2027 | Yes48¢No52¢ |
| 57–59 | 31% | — | — | $214 | $406 | 1 Mar 2027 | Yes31¢No70¢ |
| 51–53 | 20% | — | — | $98 | $565 | 1 Mar 2027 | Yes20¢No81¢ |
| 47 or fewer | 18% | — | — | $52 | $524 | 1 Mar 2027 | Yes18¢No82¢ |
| 63–65 | 17% | — | — | $71 | $502 | 1 Mar 2027 | Yes17¢No83¢ |
| 69–71 | 6.5% | — | — | $38 | $596 | 1 Mar 2027 | Yes6.5¢No94¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Election: Yashar and Likud in coalition? | 21% | — | — | $283 | $627 | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes21¢No80¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel Election: Arab party and Likud in coalition? | 4.0% | — | — | $249 | $2.2K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes4.0¢No96¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israeli Knesset election annulled? | 3.1% | — | — | $244 | $52.7K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes3.1¢No97¢ |
| Israel Election: Religious Zionist Party–Zehut vote share? | 5-6% | $60.7K | 3 Nov 2026 |
| Israeli Legislative Election: Turnout | 74%+ | $146K | 3 Nov 2026 |
| Israel Election: United Torah Judaism vote share? | 5-6% | $29.7K | 2 Nov 2026 |
| Israel Election: Together vote share? | 9-11% | $66.1K | 2 Nov 2026 |
| Israel Election: Joint List # of seats? | 10-11 | $223K | 2 Nov 2026 |
| Israel Election: Yisrael Beiteinu vote share? | 5-6% | $40.6K | 2 Nov 2026 |
Down 16 points in a week, 6.2× a normal week for this contract.
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the 24 hours before this recorded read. Cause unconfirmed.
Down 2.1 points in a week, 0.8× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days.
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the 24 hours before this recorded read. Cause unconfirmed.
Prices are read from Polymarket's public markets and trades and describe what traders pay, not a forecast or recommendation by Vultax.
Your notebook
Market rulesCloses 1 Mar 2027, 04:59 UTCRead 5 Nov 2026, 14:05 UTC
Same as the market so far
Your scenario
48.0%
Market 48.0% · +0.0 pts
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Scored when the market resolves.
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