Israel Election 2026 prediction markets

This room reads every open Polymarket market on the Israeli general election and sorts it into the next prime minister, parties and seats, vote shares and the campaign itself. The prime minister market is priced beside the same question on Kalshi.

A price is the cost of a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens, so 62¢ reads as a 62% chance. In a market with many named outcomes the prices should add up to roughly 100%; a gap is the venue's spread and fees, not a free lunch.

Israel elects a 120-seat Knesset by national list, and a list needs 3.25% of the vote to enter at all. No party has ever won a majority alone, so the prime minister is whoever can assemble 61 seats afterwards. That is why the largest-party market and the prime minister market are different contracts that can point at different people, and why a small list hovering at the threshold can move both.

Each market resolves on its own written rules, including the deadline, the resolution source and what counts as the event. Two markets on the same subject with different wording can and do trade at different prices, so read the rules on the market page before comparing them.