Nothing here has moved by more than its normal daily swing. The prices below are where the market has settled for now.
Up 4.0 points in a week, 1.5× a normal week for this contract. Volume is well under a normal day, so treat it with care.
Little change: +1.0 points on the day against a normal daily swing of 3.0.
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| Outcome | 30 days ago, or first full day | Now |
|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 46% on 30 Oct, its first full day (listed 29 Oct) | 42% |
| December 12 | 36% on 30 Oct, its first full day (listed 29 Oct) | 40% |
| Outcome | Bid / ask | Within 2¢ | $1K pays | $10K pays |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 41¢/43¢ | $1.0K, $2.4K | 44¢+0.9 | 67¢fills $9.7K |
| December 12 | 39¢/41¢ | $3.5K, $551 | 43¢+2.1 | 63¢+22 |
Vultax Research: how Polymarket trader leaderboards compare
Vultax Research: what copying a Polymarket trade 30 seconds late costs
Last recorded read: 2026-11-14 21:48 UTC
Up 10.0 points in a week, 1.3× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days.
Up 5.0 points in a week, 1.9× a normal week for this contract.
Up 7.0 points in a week, 2.6× a normal week for this contract.
Up 14 points in a week, 1.6× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days.
Up 12 points in a week, 1.5× a normal week for this contract.
Federal funding runs through 11 December 2026 under H.R. 6500, the Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2027, signed on 2 September 2026; without a new law, a lapse would begin at 12:01 a.m. Eastern on 12 December 2026, 28 days away. On Polymarket, “Government shutdown by...?” has December 31 in front at 42%, on $2.6K traded across that market in the last 24 hours. This room reads 7 open markets across 3 Polymarket events, which together traded $2.6K over the same 24 hours and hold $54.3K of resting liquidity. Prices as of 14 Nov 2026, 21:56 UTC.
Each row is the Polymarket market on one funding deadline: the side priced higher 30 days, 7 days and one day before the deadline, against how the market resolved under its own rules. The open deadline is read live until it resolves.
The day-before favourite won 4 of 9 deadlines scored here; the eventual result traded at 47% on average that day.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 42% | — | — | $360 |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 5.0% | — | — | $0 |
Each recorded move in the Government shutdown room beside the room's own sourced events near it: reports by when they were published, calendar and record entries by the date they name. Close in time is not a cause: Vultax has not confirmed why any of these prices moved.
Up 10.0 points in a week, 1.3× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days.
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the 24 hours before this recorded read. Cause unconfirmed.
Up 5.0 points in a week, 1.9× a normal week for this contract.
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the 24 hours before this recorded read. Cause unconfirmed.
Up 7.0 points in a week, 2.6× a normal week for this contract.
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the 24 hours before this recorded read. Cause unconfirmed.
This room reads every open Polymarket market on a US federal government shutdown and keeps a scored record of each funding deadline the venue has priced since 2023: the side the market favoured 30 days, 7 days and one day before, and what happened.
A price is the cost of a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens, so 62¢ reads as a 62% chance. In a market with many named outcomes the prices should add up to roughly 100%; a gap is the venue's spread and fees, not a free lunch.
Federal agencies can spend only what Congress appropriates and the President signs, for a fiscal year that starts on 1 October. When a deadline passes without a new law, funding lapses at 12:01 a.m. Eastern and the Office of Management and Budget tells agencies to stop work that is not excepted. Each stopgap law writes the next deadline into its own text, so the countdown on this page is taken from the last law signed.
Each market resolves on its own written rules, including the deadline, the resolution source and what counts as the event. Two markets on the same subject with different wording can and do trade at different prices, so read the rules on the market page before comparing them.
Prices are Polymarket's daily closing prices from its public price history, read at the last close before each checkpoint; outcomes that traded less than $1,000 over their life are left out, and a new market's opening 50% placeholder is not counted as a price.
| 1 Jan 2027 |
| Yes42¢No58¢ |
| December 12 | 40% | — | — | $2.3K | $12.3K | 13 Dec 2026 | Yes40¢No60¢ |
| 1 Jan 2027 |
| Yes5.0¢No95¢ |
Up 14 points in a week, 1.6× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days.
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the 24 hours before this recorded read. Cause unconfirmed.
Up 12 points in a week, 1.5× a normal week for this contract.
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the 24 hours before this recorded read. Cause unconfirmed.