Government shutdown prediction markets

This room reads every open Polymarket market on a US federal government shutdown and keeps a scored record of each funding deadline the venue has priced since 2023: the side the market favoured 30 days, 7 days and one day before, and what happened.

A price is the cost of a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens, so 62¢ reads as a 62% chance. In a market with many named outcomes the prices should add up to roughly 100%; a gap is the venue's spread and fees, not a free lunch.

Federal agencies can spend only what Congress appropriates and the President signs, for a fiscal year that starts on 1 October. When a deadline passes without a new law, funding lapses at 12:01 a.m. Eastern and the Office of Management and Budget tells agencies to stop work that is not excepted. Each stopgap law writes the next deadline into its own text, so the countdown on this page is taken from the last law signed.

Each market resolves on its own written rules, including the deadline, the resolution source and what counts as the event. Two markets on the same subject with different wording can and do trade at different prices, so read the rules on the market page before comparing them.