David Lisnard: Up 3.3 points in a week, 3.1× a normal week for this contract. 5 days running in the same direction. 2 other outcomes moved by more than noise.
Up 3.3 points in a week, 3.1× a normal week for this contract. 5 days running in the same direction.
Up 1.2 points in 24 hours, 3.0× its normal daily swing. Up 2.2 on the week.
Down 4.0 points in a week, 1.5× a normal week for this contract.
Little change: +0.0 points on the day against a normal daily swing of 0.4.
Research is free. Create a free account to save room watches and use your Vi allowance.
| Outcome | 30 days ago | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 47% | 47% |
| David Lisnard | 12% | 18% |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 12% | 14% |
| Christine Lagarde | <1% | 7.3% |
| Édouard Philippe | 20% | 6.5% |
| Outcome | Bid / ask | Within 2¢ | $1K pays | $10K pays |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 47¢/47¢ | $120K, $85.0K | 47¢+0.0 | 47¢+0.0 |
| David Lisnard | 17¢/17¢ | $78.7K, $9.2K | 17¢+0.0 | 18¢+1.1 |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 13¢/14¢ | $215K, $19.2K | 14¢+0.0 | 14¢+0.5 |
| Christine Lagarde | 7.2¢/7.3¢ | $3.0K, $10.1K | 7.4¢+0.1 | 8.7¢+1.4 |
| Édouard Philippe | 6¢/7.0¢ | $3.3K, $2.4K | 7.3¢+0.3 | 10¢+3.4 |
Vultax Research: how Polymarket trader leaderboards compare
Vultax Research: what copying a Polymarket trade 30 seconds late costs
Last recorded read: 2026-11-14 21:33 UTC
Up 3.3 points in a week, 3.1× a normal week for this contract. 5 days running in the same direction.
Up 1.2 points in 24 hours, 3.0× its normal daily swing. Up 2.2 on the week.
Down 6.0 points in a week, 2.3× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days.
Up 3.1 points in a week, 2.9× a normal week for this contract. 5 days running in the same direction.
Up 1.4 points in 24 hours, 2.8× its normal daily swing. Up 2.3 on the week.
The biggest open Polymarket questions due in 2027 have traded $605M over their lives. On Polymarket, “Next French Presidential Election” has Marine Le Pen in front at 47%, on $902K traded across that market in the last 24 hours. This room reads 1,463 open markets across 118 Polymarket events, which together traded $3.2M over the same 24 hours and hold $91M of resting liquidity. Prices as of 14 Nov 2026, 21:40 UTC.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine Le Pen | 47% | — | — | $98.7K |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 69% | — | — | $139 |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 28% | — | — | $30.8K |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 24% | — | — | $692 |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Odyssey | 53% | — | — | $1.5K |
Polymarket's hottest-year markets resolve on NASA's Land-Ocean Temperature Index. These are NASA's monthly figures for 2026, in °C above the 1951–1980 average. On Polymarket, “Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?” prices first place at 94% and second at 5%.
Source: NASA GISTEMP v4, monthly Land-Ocean Temperature Index, read 14 Nov 2026
Each row is the year's hottest-year market on Polymarket: the side priced higher 30 days, 7 days and one day before NASA published the annual figure, against what NASA's figure decided.
The day-before favourite won all three years scored here; the eventual result traded at 96.5% on average that day.
Each recorded move in the 2027 room beside the room's own sourced events near it: reports by when they were published, calendar and record entries by the date they name. Close in time is not a cause: Vultax has not confirmed why any of these prices moved.
Up 3.3 points in a week, 3.1× a normal week for this contract. 5 days running in the same direction.
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the 24 hours before this recorded read. Cause unconfirmed.
Up 1.2 points in 24 hours, 3.0× its normal daily swing. Up 2.2 on the week.
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the 24 hours before this recorded read. Cause unconfirmed.
Down 6.0 points in a week, 2.3× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days.
This room reads every open Polymarket event whose deadline falls in 2027 and sorts it into elections, geopolitics, markets and sport. It is the venue's own answer to "2027 predictions": what traders expect to happen, what they have put on it, and how busy each question is.
A price is the cost of a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens, so 62¢ reads as a 62% chance. In a market with many named outcomes the prices should add up to roughly 100%; a gap is the venue's spread and fees, not a free lunch.
Which year a question belongs to is read from its deadline, not its wording. A question that closes on 31 December 2026 belongs to 2026, even when the venue pads its end date a few days into January, so the first week of the year is left out; a 2027 season or election that ends inside the year is in. The count and the money at the top of the page are totals over the open events read, the largest first.
Each market resolves on its own written rules, including the deadline, the resolution source and what counts as the event. Two markets on the same subject with different wording can and do trade at different prices, so read the rules on the market page before comparing them.
| 19 Apr 2027 |
| Yes47¢No53¢ |
| David Lisnard | 17% | — | — | $53.9K | $603K | 19 Apr 2027 | Yes17¢No83¢ |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 14% | — | — | $45.3K | $760K | 19 Apr 2027 | Yes14¢No87¢ |
| Christine Lagarde | 7.2% | — | — | $49.3K | $281K | 19 Apr 2027 | Yes7.2¢No93¢ |
| Édouard Philippe | 6.5% | — | — | $124K | $353K | 19 Apr 2027 | Yes6.5¢No94¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2027 | 8.5% | — | — | $5.9K | $129K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes8.5¢No92¢ |
| March 31, 2027 | 6% | — | — | $1.9K | $59.1K | 1 Apr 2027 | Yes6¢No94¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2027 | 23% | — | — | $694 | $81.6K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes23¢No78¢ |
| 1 Jan 2028 |
| Yes69¢No31¢ |
| November 30, 2027 | 67% | — | — | $1.6K | $57.9K | 1 Dec 2027 | Yes67¢No34¢ |
| October 31, 2027 | 66% | — | — | $666 | $66.6K | 1 Nov 2027 | Yes66¢No35¢ |
| September 30, 2027 | 63% | — | — | $61 | $43.8K | 1 Oct 2027 | Yes63¢No38¢ |
| August 31, 2027 | 60% | — | — | $14 | $41.4K | 1 Sep 2027 | Yes60¢No41¢ |
| 1 Jan 2028 |
| Yes28¢No73¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1.25–$1.5T | 42% | — | — | $14.4K | $67.8K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes42¢No58¢ |
| <$1.25T | 25% | — | — | $26.5K | $98.5K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes25¢No75¢ |
| $1.5–$1.75T | 18% | — | — | $15.0K | $62.3K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes18¢No82¢ |
| $1.75–$2.0T | 10% | — | — | $10.3K | $75.7K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes10¢No90¢ |
| $2.0–$2.25T | 3.3% | — | — | $7.7K | $40.6K | 1 Jan 2028 | Yes3.3¢No97¢ |
| 30 May 2027 |
| Yes24¢No77¢ |
| Paris Saint-Germain | 19% | — | — | $2.0K | $380K | 30 May 2027 | Yes19¢No82¢ |
| Real Madrid | 14% | — | — | $1.6K | $222K | 30 May 2027 | Yes14¢No86¢ |
| Arsenal | 14% | — | — | $1.5K | $270K | 20 Jun 2027 | Yes14¢No87¢ |
| Bayern Munich | 13% | — | — | $1.5K | $259K | 20 Jun 2027 | Yes13¢No88¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio Spurs | 23% | — | — | $8.7K | $166K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes23¢No78¢ |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 14% | — | — | $2.9K | $233K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes14¢No86¢ |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 9.9% | — | — | $7.5K | $141K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes9.9¢No90¢ |
| New York Knicks | 7.5% | — | — | $4.8K | $183K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes7.5¢No93¢ |
| Boston Celtics | 7.5% | — | — | $1.6K | $170K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes7.5¢No93¢ |
| 1 Jul 2027 |
| Yes53¢No48¢ |
| You Can See Everything | 23% | — | — | $1.1K | $29.0K | 14 Mar 2027 | Yes23¢No77¢ |
| La Bola Negra | 10% | — | — | $2.1K | $39.8K | 14 Mar 2027 | Yes10¢No90¢ |
| Dune: Part Three | 8.5% | — | — | $1.5K | $43.6K | 14 Mar 2027 | Yes8.5¢No92¢ |
| Digger | 3.0% | — | — | $211 | $32.0K | 14 Mar 2027 | Yes3.0¢No97¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Malkovich | 48% | — | — | $1.2K | $12.8K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes48¢No52¢ |
| Andrew Scott | 22% | — | — | $1.6K | $12.8K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes22¢No78¢ |
| Matt Damon | 15% | — | — | $63 | $15.3K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes15¢No85¢ |
| Tom Cruise | 7.5% | — | — | $14 | $12.1K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes7.5¢No93¢ |
| Anthony Ippolito | 3.8% | — | — | $0 | $4.4K | 14 Mar 2027 | Yes3.8¢No96¢ |
Prices are Polymarket's daily closing prices from its public price history, read at the last close before each checkpoint; outcomes that traded less than $1,000 over their life are left out, and a new market's opening 50% placeholder is not counted as a price.
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the 24 hours before this recorded read. Cause unconfirmed.
Up 3.1 points in a week, 2.9× a normal week for this contract. 5 days running in the same direction.
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the 24 hours before this recorded read. Cause unconfirmed.
Up 1.4 points in 24 hours, 2.8× its normal daily swing. Up 2.3 on the week.
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the 24 hours before this recorded read. Cause unconfirmed.
Your notebook
Market rulesCloses 19 Apr 2027, 03:59 UTCRead 14 Nov 2026, 21:40 UTC
Same as the market so far
Your scenario
47.3%
Market 47.3% · +0.0 pts
Your scenario, not a Vultax forecast.
Private to your account.
Scored when the market resolves.
Sign in to keep forecasts across devices.