Analytics
Yes is at 70.5%, up 14 points from 56.5% when the market opened on 31 Jul 2026.
Across the 85 daily closes on record from 31 Jul 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (8 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 70.5% on 30 Oct 2026 and the lowest 46.5% on 29 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 59%; a month before, 46.5%. Its largest one-day move was 10 points up, to 64.5% on 3 Oct 2026.
No change is the favourite of the 5 outcomes in “Fed Decision in January?”, ahead of 25 bps increase at 26.5%.
$11.44K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $260.78K since listing. The order book holds $120.14K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $37.13K bought Yes and $18.09K bought No; the largest was a $8.25K buy of Yes at 63.3¢.
The largest Yes position is chunqiu with 30K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 94.6K. Ten wallets hold 87.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 28 Jan 2027, 90 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 2:13 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 85 points, 31 Jul 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 40%–80%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2026 | 56.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 70.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 94.59K |
| chunqiu | Yes | 30K |
| Favorable-Pepper-Brushing | Yes | 26.38K |
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-january-20260729233815502
| GKK2 | Yes | 13.02K |
| simpleman | Yes | 10.25K |
| pieped | Yes | 6K |
| Quiet Meteor 2709 | Yes | 5.22K |
| GoldmanSachs | Yes | 4.42K |
| TheRealWarMonger | Yes | 3.23K |
| kittycat67 | No | 3.13K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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