Analytics
Yes is at 1.1%, down 14 points from 15.5% when the market opened on 31 Jul 2026.
Across the 85 daily closes on record from 31 Jul 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 15.5% on 31 Jul 2026 and the lowest 1% on 23 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 1.5%; a month before, 5.5%.
25 bps decrease ranks fourth of the 5 outcomes in “Fed Decision in January?”. No change leads at 68%; 25 bps increase is at 28.5%.
$1.43K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $125.95K since listing. The order book holds $99.8K, with a 0.2% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $542.19 bought Yes and $55.07K bought No; the largest was a $1.78K buy of No at 95.0¢.
The largest Yes position is RektCitys with 18.3K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 80.3K. Ten wallets hold 82% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 28 Jan 2027, 96 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 24, 9:04 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 85 points, 31 Jul 2026 – 24 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2026 | 15.5% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 1.1% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 80.35K |
| RektCitys | Yes | 18.35K |
| Donkov | Yes | 13.24K |
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-january-20260729233815502
| MassivelyBroken |
| Yes |
| 4.71K |
| jozeslemsek | Yes | 4.67K |
| polio123 | Yes | 3.22K |
| Beneficial-Diction | Yes | 3K |
| Kheugene | Yes | 2.9K |
| Djnjk | Yes | 2.55K |
| 881112 | Yes | 2.5K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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