How do Fed decision markets resolve?

On the target range the Federal Open Market Committee announces in its post-meeting statement, published on federalreserve.gov. Each market's rules state the outcome buckets, such as a hold or a cut of 25 basis points.

Why can a Fed decision market and fed funds futures disagree?

They price different things. A decision market pays $1 on one outcome bucket at one meeting; fed funds futures settle on the average effective federal funds rate over a calendar month, so reading one meeting's odds from them takes an assumption about the path of rates. Spreads and thin books on the decision market add their own noise.

Who chairs the Federal Reserve?

Kevin Warsh is Chairman of the Board of Governors, as listed on the Federal Reserve's Board page in September 2026. Jerome Powell remains a member of the Board. The chair leads the FOMC, which sets the federal funds target range.

Why do the odds move before a meeting?

Inflation and jobs data, and speeches by Fed officials, change what traders expect. Moves close to the announcement can also reflect thin liquidity, so check the volume beside each price.

beta

Paper desk

Room checked 19s agoLatest captured trade 8m ago

CurrentEconomics

Fed / FOMC

Q: What will the Fed do at its next meeting?

The outcome in front for the nearest decision Vultax links to this question, “Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?”, trades at 95% on Polymarket as of 24 Oct 2026, 18:27 UTC. A price is the cost of a contract that pays $1 if the event happens, so it reads as a probability. It moves with every trade; the table on this page lists the other linked markets with their 24-hour volume and liquidity.

Fed decision, Powell wording, and macro-linked prediction markets

Latest checkNo material change across 18 monitored marketsjust now

Room attention

Coverage0

Activity62

Movement24

18monitored markets$1.92Mmonitored, 24h$10.17Mliquidity

Monitor checks

Checks cover the monitored markets and captured inputs

Resolving the latest accepted evidence…

Monitored markets

Ranked by Room attention

18 total

Room attention 64, Tight deep book

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

$44.61K 24hbid 74.0%, ask 76.0%$233.36K liquidity

2Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

3Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Markets Crypto Topics Traders

Fed Rate Decision Odds: Live FOMC Prediction Markets | Vultax

Monitored market coverage

Monitored markets

18 of them priced

Volume, 24h

$1.9M

in the monitored subset

Resting liquidity

$10M

resting on the books

Open interest

$13M

contracts outstanding

Busiest market, 24h

$727K

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

What will the Fed do at its next meeting? Live odds

Updated 24 Oct 2026, 18:27 UTC

On Polymarket, “Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?” trades at 95%, with $635K traded in the last 24 hours. Vultax links 18 markets to Fed and FOMC, which traded $1.9M together over the same period. Prices as of 24 Oct 2026, 18:27 UTC.

Fed and FOMC prediction markets on Polymarket, most traded first
Market	Chance	24h volume	Liquidity	Closes
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	5.5%	$727K	$1.5M	29 Oct 2026
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	95%	$635K	$2.0M	29 Oct 2026
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	<1%	$219K	$953K	29 Oct 2026
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	97%

What moved

Price changes in probability points, measured on Polymarket’s own trade history for the room’s busiest markets. A market whose history does not reach back over a window is left out of that window rather than shown against a shorter one.

Lead market — last 30 days

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

33% → 95%low 31%, high 95%

Over 24 hours

About the Fed and FOMC prediction markets

This room follows the Polymarket markets Vultax links to the Federal Reserve: the outcome of each FOMC meeting, the number of cuts or hikes in a year, the level of the target range and questions about Fed leadership. Each price is shown with its 24-hour volume and resting liquidity.

FOMC decision markets usually list mutually exclusive outcomes — hold, cut or hike by a set size — and their prices should add up to roughly 100%. Comparing them with the odds implied by fed funds futures shows how far traders on the two markets agree.

Each market resolves on its own written rules, including the deadline, the resolution source and what counts as the event. Two markets on the same subject with different wording can and do trade at different prices, so read the rules on the market page before comparing them.

What moves these markets

Inflation and jobs releases between meetings
Speeches and testimony by the chair and voting members
The statement, projections and press conference at each meeting
Market-implied rates in Treasury bills and fed funds futures

Dates to watch

28 Oct 2026FOMC decision (meeting 27–28 October)
9 Dec 2026FOMC decision and projections (meeting 8–9 December)

Questions

What will the Fed do at its next meeting? Questions and answers

What will the Fed do at its next meeting?: The outcome in front for the nearest decision Vultax links to this question, “Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?”, trades at 95% on Polymarket as of 24 Oct 2026, 18:27 UTC. A price is the cost of a contract that pays $1 if the event happens, so it reads as a probability. It moves with every trade; the table on this page lists the other linked markets with their 24-hour volume and liquidity.
How do Fed decision markets resolve?: On the target range the Federal Open Market Committee announces in its post-meeting statement, published on federalreserve.gov. Each market's rules state the outcome buckets, such as a hold or a cut of 25 basis points.
Why can a Fed decision market and fed funds futures disagree?: They price different things. A decision market pays $1 on one outcome bucket at one meeting; fed funds futures settle on the average effective federal funds rate over a calendar month, so reading one meeting's odds from them takes an assumption about the path of rates. Spreads and thin books on the decision market add their own noise.
Who chairs the Federal Reserve?: Kevin Warsh is Chairman of the Board of Governors, as listed on the Federal Reserve's Board page in September 2026. Jerome Powell remains a member of the Board. The chair leads the FOMC, which sets the federal funds target range.
Why do the odds move before a meeting?: Inflation and jobs data, and speeches by Fed officials, change what traders expect. Moves close to the announcement can also reflect thin liquidity, so check the volume beside each price.

YOUR RESEARCH NOTEBOOK

What would change your mind on Fed and FOMC?

Choose a real market question, test one condition at a time, and keep a dated forecast with your reasoning.

1. Choose the exact questionRead the market and its resolution rules

Venue close: 9 Dec 2026, 23:59 UTC · Market read 24 Oct 2026, 18:27 UTC

2. Pick a condition to think through

Chance this condition occurs before the question's deadline50.0%Chance of Yes if the condition occurs74.5%Chance of Yes if the condition does not occur74.5%

No directional assumption yet

Both branches start at the observed market price. Adjust them to express your own judgment.

YOUR CONDITIONAL ESTIMATE

74.5%

Market reference 74.5% · +0.0 pts

Condition occurs50.0% × 74.5%

Condition does not occur50.0% × 74.5%

Weighted by your assumptions using total probability. This is one condition at a time; correlated conditions are not combined. It is a personal scenario, not a calibrated Vultax forecast.

What would change your mind?Review date (your local time)

Saved forecasts are private to your account. Saving does not place a paper trade or send a notification.

Your forecast record

Scores are pending until a final binary market resolution is verified. Repeated saves are not independent predictions.

Anyone can explore the lab and download a draft. Sign in to keep a forecast across devices.

When is the next Fed decision, and what is priced?

When

Decision: Wednesday 28 October 2026, at the end of the meeting of 27 and 28 October. The meeting after that is on 8 and 9 December 2026, with a decision and new projections on Wednesday 9 December. Source: Federal Reserve, FOMC meeting calendar

Favoured on Polymarket

No change 94.5% at the Fed's 28 October decision, with 25 bps increase at 5.5%
25 bps increase 74.5% at the 9 December decision

Prices as of 24 Oct 2026, 18:27 UTC. Each outcome is its own contract, and the five should add up to about one hundred. The market settles on the target range in the FOMC statement.

Fed / FOMC, the market's forecast

Fed Decision in October?

No change94.5%+3.0 pts 24h

No change95%

Fed decision

4 days

28 Oct 2026

Traded, 24h

$1.5M

in this market

Traded, all time

$62M

$7.8M resting now

All related markets, 24h

$1.8M

251 markets across 38 events

Try it on paper

No changeYes95¢No5.5¢
25 bps increaseYes5.5¢No95¢
50+ bps increaseYes0.25¢No99.75¢
25 bps decreaseYes0.15¢No99.85¢
50+ bps decreaseYes0.05¢No99.95¢

Vi IQ: what actually moved

Each outcome is measured against its own normal daily swing over 30 days

25 bps increase: Down 7.0 points in a week, 2.6× a normal week for this contract. 5 days running in the same direction.

25 bps increase6.5%65Notable
Steady slide24h +1.07d −7.0normal day ±1.0
Down 7.0 points in a week, 2.6× a normal week for this contract. 5 days running in the same direction.
No change94%31Noise
Steady climb24h +0.07d +7.0normal day ±2.0
Up 7.0 points in a week, 1.3× a normal week for this contract. 3 days running in the same direction. At its highest in 30 days.

Research is free. Create a free account to save room watches and use your Vi allowance.

The race, last 29 days

Fed Decision in October?

Fed Decision in October?: price 30 days ago and now
Outcome	30 days ago	Now
No change	33%	94%
25 bps increase	67%	6.5%

Where the money went today

$1.8M across 38 events

Fed Decision in October?$1.5MNo change 95%+3.0 pts
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?$83.3K0 97%+0.7 pts
Fed Decision in December?$53.8K25 bps increase 75%+1.5 pts
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?$44.6KAnother Fed rate hike in 2026? 75%−2.5 pts
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?$23.0K5.3% 39%−2.5 pts
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)$22.1KHike–Pause–Hike 75%+3.5 pts
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?$19.1KBelow 4.70% 72%+9.5 pts
How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?$14.9KBelow 5.25% 66%+0.5 pts

What an order really pays

Order book depth and the average price a $1,000 and a $10,000 buy order would pay
Outcome	Bid / ask	Within 2¢	$1K pays	$10K pays
No change	94¢/95¢	$1.7M, $1.4M	95¢+0.0	95¢+0.0
25 bps increase	5¢/6¢	$54.3K, $96.1K	6¢+0.0	6.0¢+0.0
50+ bps increase	0.2¢/0.3¢	$10.8K, $3.7K	0.32¢+0.0	1.1¢+0.8
25 bps decrease	0.1¢/0.2¢	$3.2K, $3.7K	0.2¢+0.0	0.76¢+0.6
50+ bps decrease	—/0.1¢	$0, $2.3K	0.1¢+0.0	0.51¢+0.4

Most argued about

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?127 comments$83.3K 24h
Jerome Powell federally charged by...?34 comments$0 24h
Fed rate cut by...?31 comments$1.5K 24h

The largest positions

0xa5ef…2966No, 25 bps increase$5.8M
HH168Yes, No change$520K
suntoriYes, No change$427K
arjennnnnYes, No change$425K
Ronaldo2100Yes, No change$397K
0xa5ef…2966No, No change$337K
pakoYes, No change$332K
gaven-willwinYes, No change$318K
elmcap2No, 25 bps increase$207K
jsmythysonYes, 25 bps increase$85.9K

Vultax Research: how Polymarket trader leaderboards compare

Large trades

Bought Yes at 95¢Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?$4.0K0xb9a9…6e00
Bought Yes at 95¢Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?$2.9Kgickkkk
Bought Yes at 95¢Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?$47.5KWell-Lit-Space-Distribution
Sold Yes at 5¢Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?$3.9Ktimetowander
Bought No at 96¢Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?$1.5KWarriorH
Sold Yes at 20¢Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?$1.2Kwin-ok
Sold Yes at 94¢Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?$1.9KCb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c59
Sold Yes at 94¢Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?$1.4Kpykue
Bought Yes at 95¢Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?$1.9KCb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c59
Bought Yes at 94¢Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?$211Kelmcap2
Bought No at 94¢Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?$172Kelmcap2
Sold Yes at 93¢Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?$1.3KZzzz87

Vultax Research: what copying a Polymarket trade 30 seconds late costs

Movement log

Last recorded read: 2026-10-24 18:18 UTC

No change95%24 Oct, 18:18 UTC
Up 8.0 points in a week, 1.5× a normal week for this contract. 3 days running in the same direction. At its highest in 30 days.
25 bps increase5.5%24 Oct, 18:18 UTC
Down 8.0 points in a week, 3.0× a normal week for this contract. 5 days running in the same direction. At its lowest in 30 days.
25 bps increase5.5%24 Oct, 18:03 UTC
Down 8.0 points in a week, 3.0× a normal week for this contract. 5 days running in the same direction. At its lowest in 30 days.
25 bps increase5.5%24 Oct, 12:48 UTC
Down 8.0 points in a week, 1.5× a normal week for this contract. 5 days running in the same direction. At its lowest in 30 days.
25 bps increase7.5%24 Oct, 02:18 UTC
Up 2.0 points on the day, against a week that ran down 6.0: 2.0× its normal daily swing, the other way.
25 bps increase6.5%23 Oct, 21:33 UTC
Down 4.0 points in 24 hours, 4.0× its normal daily swing. Down 7.0 on the week.
25 bps increase7.5%23 Oct, 18:48 UTC
Down 6.0 points in a week, 2.3× a normal week for this contract. 4 days running in the same direction.
25 bps increase6.5%23 Oct, 12:04 UTC
Down 7.0 points in a week, 1.3× a normal week for this contract. 4 days running in the same direction.
No change94%23 Oct, 06:34 UTC
Up 6.0 points in 24 hours, 3.0× its normal daily swing. Up 9.0 on the week. At its highest in 30 days.
25 bps increase5.5%23 Oct, 06:06 UTC
Down 7.0 points in 24 hours, 3.5× its normal daily swing. Down 9.0 on the week. At its lowest in 30 days.
No change95%22 Oct, 18:34 UTC
Up 22 points in a week, 4.2× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days.
25 bps increase5.5%22 Oct, 18:20 UTC
Down 22 points in a week, 8.3× a normal week for this contract. 3 days running in the same direction. At its lowest in 30 days.
No change92%22 Oct, 12:49 UTC
Up 19 points in a week, 3.6× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days.
No change89%22 Oct, 08:33 UTC
Up 14 points in a week, 2.6× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days.
25 bps increase12%22 Oct, 06:49 UTC
Down 12 points in a week, 4.5× a normal week for this contract. 3 days running in the same direction. At its lowest in 30 days.
25 bps increase13%22 Oct, 06:19 UTC
Down 11 points in a week, 4.2× a normal week for this contract.
No change87%21 Oct, 20:20 UTC
Up 20 points in a week, 3.8× a normal week for this contract.
25 bps increase13%21 Oct, 18:19 UTC
Down 21 points in a week, 7.7× a normal week for this contract.
No change89%21 Oct, 08:04 UTC
Up 8.0 points in a week, 1.5× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days.
25 bps increase12%21 Oct, 07:50 UTC
Down 7.0 points in a week, 1.3× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days.
No change87%20 Oct, 20:03 UTC
Up 7.0 points in a week, 1.3× a normal week for this contract.
No change85%9 Oct, 02:19 UTC
Up 10.0 points in a week, 1.9× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days.
25 bps increase17%8 Oct, 14:18 UTC
Down 19 points in a week, 2.9× a normal week for this contract.
No change84%8 Oct, 14:18 UTC
Up 20 points in a week, 3.8× a normal week for this contract.

Fed / FOMC

Monitor checks

Monitored markets

Fed / FOMC

Monitor checks

Monitored markets

Activity

Smart money

Evidence

Monitored market coverage

What will the Fed do at its next meeting? Live odds

What moved

Lead market — last 30 days

Over 24 hours

About the Fed and FOMC prediction markets

What moves these markets

Dates to watch

What will the Fed do at its next meeting? Questions and answers

What would change your mind on Fed and FOMC?

Your forecast record

Over 7 days

When is the next Fed decision, and what is priced?

Fed Decision in October?

Vi IQ: what actually moved

The race, last 29 days

Where the money went today

What an order really pays

Most argued about

The largest positions

Large trades

Movement log

Work this room