Analytics
Yes is at 70.5%, up 33 points from 37.5% when the market opened on 31 Jul 2026.
Across the 88 daily closes on record from 31 Jul 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 78.5% on 15 Oct 2026 and the lowest 25.5% on 16 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 71.5%; a month before, 75.5%. Its largest one-day move was 16 points up, to 59.5% on 11 Sep 2026.
25 bps increase is the favourite of the 5 outcomes in “Fed Decision in December?”, ahead of No change at 25.5%.
$197.11K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $2.12M since listing. The order book holds $458.79K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $63.02K bought Yes and $14.73K bought No; the largest was a $16.7K sell of Yes at 75.0¢.
The largest Yes position is CDAP1 with 262.4K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 787.1K. Ten wallets hold 84.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 9 Dec 2026, 41 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 2:39 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 88 points, 31 Jul 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Jul 2026 | 37.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 70.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 787.15K |
| CDAP1 | Yes | 262.43K |
| TheReturnOfDarthMaul | Yes | 179.17K |
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-december-20260729232808632
| ratehikes | Yes | 166.29K |
| Violet Beacon 6402 | No | 115.87K |
| Z6rP9nX3Vq8K1m | Yes | 51.31K |
| simpleman | Yes | 48.49K |
| chunqiu | Yes | 29.5K |
| MisTKy | Yes | 28.11K |
| lissartter | No | 21.76K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
