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| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 114K | $0.361 | $57.29K | +$16.17K |
 |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 8.51K | $0.270 | $2.3K | 4d ago |
 |
| Yes |
| 76.4K |
| $0.501 |
| $35.52K |
| -$2.77K |
 Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 27.75K | $0.614 | $20.4K | +$3.36K |
 Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | 20K | $0.860 | $18.7K | +$1.5K |
 Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 186.36K | $0.119 | $16.21K | -$6.03K |
 Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 227K | $0.047 | $14.98K | +$4.26K |
 Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 253.41K | $0.041 | $14.32K | +$3.89K |
 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | Yes | 28.53K | $0.344 | $10.13K | +$325.03 |
 Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? | No | 9.48K | $0.832 | $8.11K | +$220.8 |
 Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | Yes | 40K | $0.145 | $5.8K | +$0.12 |
 Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | No | 5K | $0.710 | $4.7K | +$1.15K |
 Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 50.87K | $0.074 | $3.97K | +$203.53 |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 101.02K | $0.025 | $3.49K | +$961.81 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 11.41K | $0.270 | $3.48K | +$399.36 |
 Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | No | 4.01K | $0.822 | $3.47K | +$174.28 |
 Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 3.33K | $0.540 | $2.12K | +$316.64 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | No | 2.36K | $0.769 | $2.06K | +$248.7 |
 Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | No | 3K | $0.500 | $1.49K | -$15 |
 Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 8.25K | $0.144 | $1.2K | +$6.89 |
 Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | Yes | 2.48K | $0.320 | $1.14K | +$346.58 |
 Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? | No | 1.01K | $0.819 | $867.19 | +$36.18 |
 Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | No | 2.44K | $0.410 | $841.79 | -$158.6 |
 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | Yes | 5K | $0.170 | $775 | -$75 |
 Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? | No | 724.34 | $0.780 | $630.17 | +$65.19 |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 24.61K | $0.019 | $578.39 | +$116.61 |
| sell |
| 945.71 |
| $0.440 |
| $416.11 |
| 4d ago |
 Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?No | sell | 1.32K | $0.770 | $1.02K | 5d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 23.14K | $0.510 | $11.8K | 5d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 11.87K | $0.500 | $5.93K | 5d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 1.33K | $0.430 | $572.49 | 8d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?No | sell | 76.78 | $0.450 | $34.55 | 8d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 14.33K | $0.450 | $6.45K | 10d ago |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes | buy | 1.37K | $0.145 | $198.93 | 10d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 10.79K | $0.540 | $5.82K | 10d ago |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?No | sell | 5.6K | $0.770 | $4.31K | 10d ago |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | sell | 23.18K | $0.023 | $533.25 | 10d ago |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes | buy | 3.29K | $0.144 | $473.4 | 10d ago |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes | sell | 3.46K | $0.740 | $2.56K | 11d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 4.04K | $0.490 | $1.98K | 11d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 3.47K | $0.690 | $2.39K | 12d ago |
 Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes | sell | 9.09K | $0.353 | $3.21K | 13d ago |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Yes | sell | 268.21 | $0.170 | $45.6 | 15d ago |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes | sell | 31 | $0.330 | $10.23 | 16d ago |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Yes | sell | 980.13 | $0.280 | $274.44 | 18d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 20K | $0.280 | $5.6K | 20d ago |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.470 | $9.4 | 21d ago |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Yes | buy | 25K | $0.210 | $5.25K | 21d ago |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes | buy | 288 | $0.540 | $155.52 | 22d ago |
 Will Jared Kushner visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 1.12K | $0.100 | $112.18 | 22d ago |
 Will Steve Witkoff visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 1.23K | $0.120 | $147.06 | 22d ago |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No | sell | 2.24K | $0.580 | $1.3K | 22d ago |
 US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Yes | sell | 1.24K | $0.030 | $37.11 | 23d ago |
 Fed rate hike in 2026?No | sell | 121.77 | $0.530 | $64.54 | 23d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 5K | $0.250 | $1.25K | 24d ago |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?No | buy | 883.76 | $0.820 | $724.68 | 24d ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 3.71K | $0.220 | $816.6 | 25d ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 5.6K | $0.536 | $3K | 25d ago |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | buy | 14.85K | $0.124 | $1.84K | 27d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 10 | $0.330 | $3.3 | 27d ago |
 Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?No | buy | 5 | $0.700 | $3.5 | 27d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 10K | $0.550 | $5.5K | 29d ago |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 1.91K | $0.570 | $1.09K | 29d ago |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Yes | sell | 6.86K | $0.275 | $1.89K | 29d ago |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Yes | buy | 5 | $0.310 | $1.55 | 29d ago |
 US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 35 | $0.310 | $10.85 | Aug 8, 2026 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 331.36 | $0.340 | $112.66 | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 12.36K | $0.330 | $4.08K | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Fed rate hike in 2026?No | buy | 6.82K | $0.420 | $2.87K | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 2.06K | $0.440 | $905.7 | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?No | sell | 257.53 | $0.810 | $208.6 | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Will Steve Witkoff visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 139 | $0.244 | $33.97 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Will Steve Witkoff visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 128.93 | $0.220 | $28.36 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?No | sell | 3.97K | $0.830 | $3.29K | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes | buy | 19.54K | $0.049 | $957.45 | Aug 5, 2026 |