Analytics
Yes is at 3.5%, down 23 points from 26% when the market opened on 6 Nov 2025.
The high was 36.5% on 29 Nov 2025 and the low 2.8% on 6 Oct 2026. A week ago Yes was at 3.6%; a month ago, 6.5%. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 17% on 5 Dec 2025.
$248.95K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $26.35K, with a 0.8% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $2.55K bought Yes and $3.51K bought No; the largest was a $1.31K sell of No at 83.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Exemplary-Citizen with 6.5K shares; the largest No position is denizz with 16.1K. Ten wallets hold 59.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 78 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 16, 2:37 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 315 points, 6 Nov 2025 – 16 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2025 | 26.0% |
| 16 Oct 2026 | 3.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| denizz | No | 16.12K |
| eightpenguins | No | 6.93K |
| Exemplary-Citizen | Yes | 6.51K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Lebanon officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Lebanon, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/israel-and-lebanon-normalize-relations-before-2027
| MEPP |
| No |
| 6.5K |
| UpTight | Yes | 6.41K |
| aenews2 | Yes | 5.96K |
| Violet Beacon 6402 | No | 5K |
| hooterz | Yes | 4.3K |
| Po1yBot-H4KRu0bwR7 | Yes | 4K |
| pakukudolphi | No | 2.81K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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