Analytics
Yes is at 5.1%, down 1.9 points from 7% when the market opened on 19 Jul 2025.
Across the 444 daily closes on record from 19 Jul 2025 to 29 Oct 2026 (24 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 7.3% on 25 Jan 2026 and the lowest 2.9% on 19 Aug 2025. A week before that last close Yes was at 5.5%; a month before, 6.2%.
Josh Shapiro ranks fifth of the 53 outcomes in “Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028”. Gavin Newsom leads at 16.9%; Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is at 16.1%.
$5.11K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $10.33M since listing. The order book holds $298.15K, with a 0.3% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $6.05K bought Yes and $21.1K bought No; the largest was a $11.28K buy of No at 94.0¢.
The largest Yes position is ImJustKen with 296.6K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 3.15M. Ten wallets hold 74.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 8 Nov 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 3:10 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 444 points, 19 Jul 2025 – 29 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–12%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Jul 2025 | 7.0% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 5.1% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 3.15M |
| ImJustKenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | Yes | 296.65K |
| orangeapplejuice |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028
41 more outcomes, none above 1.7%.
| Yes |
| 214.81K |
| Stable-Armament | Yes | 173.64K |
| dsdfsfds | Yes | 159.58K |
| Violet Beacon 6402 | Yes | 158.45K |
| fuc.your.mother | Yes | 156.78K |
| rekt-prediction | Yes | 151.38K |
| titanfish | Yes | 143.57K |
| TaxIsTheft | Yes | 140.89K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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