JD Vance: Down 3.3 points in a week, 3.1× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days. 1 other outcome moved by more than noise.
Down 3.3 points in a week, 3.1× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days.
Down 2.2 points in a week, 2.1× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days.
Little change: −0.1 points on the day against a normal daily swing of 0.4. At its highest in 30 days.
Little change: +0.4 points on the day against a normal daily swing of 0.4.
Trade 2028 US Election on paper, free
A free account gives you a practice balance at live Polymarket prices, a portfolio that marks itself, and Vi on every market. No card.
Each line is the price of one outcome on Polymarket, read as a probability. Hover or tap to read every line on the same day.
| Outcome | 30 days ago | Now |
|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 22% | 21% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 13% | 13% |
| Jon Ossoff | 9.8% | 12% |
| Marco Rubio | 11% | 8.8% |
| Gavin Newsom | 8.3% | 8.2% |
| Kamala Harris | 3.8% | 4.7% |
Dollars traded in the last 24 hours, event by event, with the outcome leading each one.
The order book behind “Presidential Election Winner 2028”, read a minute ago.
| Outcome | Bid / ask | Within 2¢ | $1K pays | $10K pays |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 21¢/21¢ | $20.8K · $13.8K | 21¢+0.0 | |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 13¢/13¢ | $10.0K · $8.9K | 13¢+0.2 | |
| Jon Ossoff | 12¢/12¢ | $7.5K · $11.2K | 12¢+0.0 | |
| Marco Rubio | 8.8¢/8.9¢ | $1.7K · $2.1K | 9.1¢+0.2 | |
| Gavin Newsom | 8.1¢/8.3¢ | $2.7K · $2.6K | 8.8¢+0.5 |
Average price a buy order of that size would pay against the offers resting now, and how many points that is above the best offer. “Within 2¢” is the dollars resting near the touch on the bid and the offer side.
Vultax Research: how much size prediction market order books hold
The same question on both venues: 2028 presidential election winner.
Gap = Polymarket minus Kalshi, in probability points. Kalshi is read at the middle of its quote. The two contracts settle on their own rules and fees, so a gap is a reading, not a free trade. Kalshi market
Vultax Research: what Kalshi and Polymarket price gaps are worth after fees
Gap = Polymarket minus Kalshi, in probability points. Kalshi is read at the middle of its quote. The two contracts settle on their own rules and fees, so a gap is a reading, not a free trade. Kalshi market
Gap = Polymarket minus Kalshi, in probability points. Kalshi is read at the middle of its quote. The two contracts settle on their own rules and fees, so a gap is a reading, not a free trade. Kalshi market
Polymarket publishes no view counts. Comments are the nearest thing to a crowd, and they do not always follow the money.
Biggest holders in this market's two leading outcomes, valued at the current price. Open a name for the wallet's record on Vultax.
7 more positions in this market
Who holds the most on each side, valued at the current price, with each wallet's record one click away.
Vultax Research: how Polymarket trader leaderboards compare
Prints of $1,000 and more in the room's busiest markets, newest first.
9 more large trades in this room
Each print of $1,000 and more as it happens: who, which side, what price.
Every move in this room that cleared Vi IQ's "notable" line, stamped when it happened. Vultax has recorded this room since 20 Sep 2026.
1 earlier move on record
The dated record of every meaningful move in this room: what moved, by how much against its own normal, and whether money came with it.
On Polymarket, “Presidential Election Winner 2028” has JD Vance in front at 21%, on $102K traded across that market in the last 24 hours. This room reads 950 open markets across 15 Polymarket events, which together traded $2.2M over the same 24 hours and hold $193M of resting liquidity. Prices as of 21 Sep 2026, 07:27 UTC.
Who takes the White House, and which party wins it
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 21% | 0 | −3.3 | $3.1K | $475K | 7 Nov 2028 | Yes21¢No79¢ |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez |
The party's 2028 nominee, priced candidate by candidate
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 51% | — | — | $8.0K | $435K | 7 Nov 2028 | Yes51¢No49¢ |
The party's 2028 nominee, priced candidate by candidate
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 18% | — | 0 | $8.7K | $333K | 7 Nov 2028 | Yes18¢No82¢ |
Vice-presidential nominees on each ticket
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 9.5% | — | — | $0 | $47.8K | 10 Aug 2028 | Yes9.5¢No91¢ |
Announcements, endorsements and the shape of the field
Largest price changes in points, counted only on markets that traded at least $1,000 in the same 24 hours. The number beside each move is that market’s 24-hour volume.
Change in probability points since the same time the previous day
Change in probability points since the same time the previous week
This room reads every open Polymarket market tagged to the 2028 US presidential race and sorts it into the general election, the two nominations, the running mates and the shape of the field. Each price is shown with the 24-hour volume and resting liquidity behind it, so a thin market is visible as thin.
A price is the cost of a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens, so 62¢ reads as a 62% chance. In a market with many named outcomes the prices should add up to roughly 100%; a gap is the venue's spread and fees, not a free lunch.
A nomination market and a general-election market on the same person answer different questions, and both are years from resolving. Long-dated candidate markets move on announcements, polling and endorsements, and they can sit at a level for weeks between them. The 24-hour volume column is the fastest way to tell a traded move from a quote drifting on an empty book.
Each market resolves on its own written rules, including the deadline, the resolution source and what counts as the event. Two markets on the same subject with different wording can and do trade at different prices, so read the rules on the market page before comparing them.
| 13% |
| — |
| 0 |
| $461 |
| $363K |
| 7 Nov 2028 |
| Yes13¢No87¢ |
| Jon Ossoff | 12% | — | — | $743 | $345K | 7 Nov 2028 | Yes12¢No88¢ |
| Marco Rubio | 8.8% | 0 | −2.2 | $4.8K | $229K | 7 Nov 2028 | Yes8.8¢No91¢ |
| Gavin Newsom | 8.2% | 0 | 0 | $10.5K | $339K | 7 Nov 2028 | Yes8.2¢No92¢ |
| Kamala Harris | 4.7% | 0 | +0.9 | $2.6K | $334K | 7 Nov 2028 | Yes4.7¢No95¢ |
| Josh Shapiro | 3.0% | — | 0 | $2.6K | $347K | 7 Nov 2028 | Yes3.0¢No97¢ |
| Pete Buttigieg | 2.6% | — | — | $190 | $509K | 7 Nov 2028 | Yes2.6¢No97¢ |
| Ron DeSantis | 1.8% | — | 0 | $0 | $168K | 7 Nov 2028 | Yes1.8¢No98¢ |
| Mark Kelly | 1.7% | — | 0 | $3.3K | $267K | 7 Nov 2028 | Yes1.7¢No98¢ |
42 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 65% | +1.0 | −2.0 | $1.6K | $349K | 7 Nov 2028 | Yes65¢No36¢ |
| Republican | 35% | −1.5 | +0.5 | $20.3K | $332K | 7 Nov 2028 | Yes35¢No66¢ |
| Marco Rubio | 16% | 0 | −0.9 | $10.4K | $381K | 7 Nov 2028 | Yes16¢No84¢ |
| Tucker Carlson | 3.3% | 0 | 0 | $3.3K | $265K | 7 Nov 2028 | Yes3.3¢No97¢ |
| Ron DeSantis | 2.9% | — | +0.5 | $1.8K | $383K | 7 Nov 2028 | Yes2.9¢No97¢ |
| Donald Trump | 2.1% | — | 0 | $5.7K | $347K | 7 Nov 2028 | Yes2.1¢No98¢ |
| Ted Cruz | 1.8% | 0 | 0 | $1.2K | $777K | 7 Nov 2028 | Yes1.8¢No98¢ |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 1.6% | — | — | $863 | $603K | 7 Nov 2028 | Yes1.6¢No98¢ |
| Ivanka Trump | <1% | — | 0 | $85 | $767K | 7 Nov 2028 | Yes0.9¢No99¢ |
| Thomas Massie | <1% | — | — | $375 | $386K | 7 Nov 2028 | Yes0.7¢No99¢ |
| Pete Hegseth | <1% | 0 | 0 | $6.1K | $1.8M | 7 Nov 2028 | Yes0.4¢No100¢ |
| Glenn Youngkin | <1% | 0 | — | $67 | $261K | 7 Nov 2028 | Yes0.4¢No100¢ |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | <1% | — | — | $325 | $1.0M | 7 Nov 2028 | Yes0.4¢No100¢ |
30 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Jon Ossoff | 17% | 0 | +0.7 | $569 | $330K | 7 Nov 2028 | Yes17¢No83¢ |
| Gavin Newsom | 16% | 0 | +3.4 | $10.1K | $447K | 7 Nov 2028 | Yes16¢No84¢ |
| Kamala Harris | 8.9% | −0.8 | +0.9 | $24.1K | $376K | 7 Nov 2028 | Yes8.9¢No91¢ |
| Josh Shapiro | 5.9% | 0 | +0.6 | $9.0K | $290K | 7 Nov 2028 | Yes5.9¢No94¢ |
| Pete Buttigieg | 5.1% | 0 | 0 | $3.1K | $421K | 7 Nov 2028 | Yes5.1¢No95¢ |
| Mark Kelly | 3.0% | 0 | 0 | $292 | $346K | 7 Nov 2028 | Yes3.0¢No97¢ |
| Andy Beshear | 2.5% | 0 | 0 | $82.6K | $523K | 7 Nov 2028 | Yes2.5¢No97¢ |
| James Talarico | 2.5% | — | 0 | $7.2K | $252K | 7 Nov 2028 | Yes2.5¢No98¢ |
| Rahm Emanuel | 1.8% | 0 | −0.7 | $3.2K | $846K | 7 Nov 2028 | Yes1.8¢No98¢ |
| Wes Moore | 1.8% | — | 0 | $113 | $342K | 7 Nov 2028 | Yes1.8¢No98¢ |
| Ro Khanna | 1.4% | — | 0 | $163 | $360K | 7 Nov 2028 | Yes1.4¢No99¢ |
39 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Gretchen Whitmer | 8.2% | −1.4 | +1.4 | $0 | $59.1K | 10 Aug 2028 | Yes8.2¢No92¢ |
| Andy Beshear | 5.5% | 0 | 0 | $0 | $48.6K | 10 Aug 2028 | Yes5.5¢No95¢ |
| Elissa Slotkin | 5.3% | −0.7 | −0.9 | $17 | $14.7K | 10 Aug 2028 | Yes5.3¢No95¢ |
| Pete Buttigieg | 5.1% | 0 | — | $0 | $58.2K | 10 Aug 2028 | Yes5.1¢No95¢ |
| Raphael Warnock | 4.8% | 0 | 0 | $0 | $41.0K | 10 Aug 2028 | Yes4.8¢No95¢ |
| James Talarico | 4.6% | 0 | +0.5 | $0 | $26.2K | 10 Aug 2028 | Yes4.6¢No95¢ |
| Jon Ossoff | 4.5% | 0 | −0.8 | $0 | $61.8K | 10 Aug 2028 | Yes4.5¢No95¢ |
35 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Rubio | 30% | — | −1.0 | $0 | $30.5K | 14 Aug 2028 | Yes30¢No71¢ |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 6.3% | −0.7 | −0.8 | $0 | $23.1K | 14 Aug 2028 | Yes6.3¢No94¢ |
| J.D. Vance | 5.5% | — | −1.0 | $0 | $46.6K | 14 Aug 2028 | Yes5.5¢No95¢ |
| Thomas Massie | 5.1% | — | — | $0 | $21.6K | 14 Aug 2028 | Yes5.1¢No95¢ |
| Rand Paul | 3.1% | 0 | −0.9 | $0 | $7.1K | 14 Aug 2028 | Yes3.1¢No97¢ |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 3.1% | −0.9 | 0 | $3 | $31.2K | 14 Aug 2028 | Yes3.1¢No97¢ |
| Tucker Carlson | 2.9% | +0.5 | +0.9 | $0 | $11.2K | 14 Aug 2028 | Yes2.9¢No97¢ |
| Nikki Haley | 2.8% | 0 | +1.4 | $0 | $32.4K | 14 Aug 2028 | Yes2.8¢No97¢ |
27 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| 45-54 | 28% | +3.0 | — | $516 | $886 | 31 Aug 2028 | Yes28¢No72¢ |
| 55-64 | 20% | −13 | — | $63 | $737 | 31 Aug 2028 | Yes20¢No81¢ |
| 65-74 | 10% | −8.3 | — | $36 | $598 | 31 Aug 2028 | Yes10¢No90¢ |
| 85+ | 5.3% | −2.7 | — | $23 | $8.8K | 31 Aug 2028 | Yes5.3¢No95¢ |
| 75-84 | 4.5% | −2.5 | — | $23 | $33.8K | 31 Aug 2028 | Yes4.5¢No96¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 90% | — | 0 | $0 | $10.6K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes90¢No10¢ |
| Pete Buttigieg | 85% | — | — | $0 | $9.5K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes85¢No15¢ |
| Rahm Emanuel | 70% | — | −4.0 | $0 | $1.2K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes70¢No30¢ |
| Andy Beshear | 69% | +2.0 | −8.0 | $20 | $1.4K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes69¢No31¢ |
| Ron DeSantis | 68% | −2.5 | −11 | $0 | $1.1K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes68¢No32¢ |
| Ted Cruz | 66% | +1.0 | −19 | $0 | $1.5K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes66¢No35¢ |
| Gavin Newsom | 65% | +2.0 | −19 | $0 | $1.4K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes65¢No35¢ |
| Jon Ossoff | 65% | — | −1.0 | $0 | $1.4K | 31 Dec 2026 | Yes65¢No35¢ |
63 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Newsom | 13% | — | −0.5 | $0 | $17.0K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes13¢No88¢ |
| Pete Buttigieg | 9.7% | 0 | −2.2 | $56 | $15.1K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes9.7¢No90¢ |
| Ron DeSantis | 7.9% | 0 | 0 | $0 | $8.6K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes7.9¢No92¢ |
| J.D. Vance | 7.5% | +2.5 | +3.6 | $44 | $8.4K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes7.5¢No93¢ |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 7.5% | — | +1.0 | $23 | $13.4K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes7.5¢No93¢ |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 7.5% | — | — | $0 | $9.4K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes7.5¢No93¢ |
| Stephen A. Smith | 7.5% | — | — | $0 | $10.6K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes7.5¢No93¢ |
| Raphael Warnock | 7.5% | — | — | $0 | $9.1K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes7.5¢No93¢ |
63 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 51% | +1.5 | −6.5 | $138 | $2.4K | 6 Nov 2028 | Yes51¢No49¢ |
| Marco Rubio | 19% | −1.0 | −5.0 | $0 | $11.8K | 6 Nov 2028 | Yes19¢No82¢ |
| Eric Trump | 10% | 0 | +3.5 | $0 | $843 | 6 Nov 2028 | Yes10¢No90¢ |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 5.3% | — | 0 | $0 | $1.1K | 6 Nov 2028 | Yes5.3¢No95¢ |
| Donald Trump | 4% | +0.9 | +0.7 | $0 | $9.3K | 6 Nov 2028 | Yes4¢No96¢ |
| Elon Musk | 3.3% | — | +2.1 | $0 | $975 | 6 Nov 2028 | Yes3.3¢No97¢ |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | <1% | 0 | — | $0 | $8.9K | 6 Nov 2028 | Yes0.6¢No99¢ |
| Ted Cruz | <1% | 0 | −1.0 | $0 | $9.1K | 6 Nov 2028 | Yes0.6¢No99¢ |
13 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
2 further markets matched this board and are not shown.
Prices are read from Polymarket's public markets and trades and describe what traders pay, not a forecast or recommendation by Vultax.