Analytics
Yes is at 48%, down 1 point from 49% when the market opened on 22 Jul 2026.
Across the 96 daily closes on record from 22 Jul 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 51.5% on 24 Oct 2026 and the lowest 7.5% on 25 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 48%; a month before, 14.5%. Its largest one-day move was 29 points up, to 38.5% on 23 Aug 2026.
It is one of 10 markets under “Which of these Republicans will be the first to announce a run for President?”.
$5.83K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $392.88, with a 36.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 81 trades, $290.52 bought Yes and $1.47K bought No; the largest was a $1.01K buy of No at 62.9¢.
The largest Yes position is ooops with 500 shares; the largest No position is Crimson Scout DF5C with 634. Ten wallets hold 93.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:19 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 96 points, 22 Jul 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2026 | 49.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 48.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Crimson Scout DF5C | No | 634 |
| ooops | Yes | 499.98 |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 204.66 |
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Glenn Youngkin, Vivek Ramaswamy, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Marjorie Taylor Greene. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-of-these-republicans-will-be-the-first-to-announce-a-run-for-president-20260721225459357
| xtxpleasecallme |
| Yes |
| 190.29 |
| Mithrandir. | No | 100 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 99.44 |
| vinii | Yes | 79.72 |
| eme10 | Yes | 61.62 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 54 |
| Turbulent-Decline-Router | No | 45 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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