Analytics
Yes is at 31%, down 19 points from 49.5% when the market opened on 22 Jul 2026.
Across the 98 daily closes on record from 22 Jul 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 54.5% on 30 Jul 2026 and the lowest 10% on 2 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 37%; a month before, 28.5%. Its largest one-day move was 36 points down, to 13.5% on 23 Jul 2026.
It is one of 10 markets under “Which of these Republicans will be the first to announce a run for President?”.
$5.23 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $4K since listing. The order book holds $398.71, with a 20.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 90 trades, $241.9 bought Yes and $816.63 bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 354 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 205. Ten wallets hold 96% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 31 Dec 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:59 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 98 points, 22 Jul 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2026 | 49.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 31.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 354.38 |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 204.66 |
| ooops | No | 200.04 |
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Glenn Youngkin, Vivek Ramaswamy, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Marjorie Taylor Greene. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-of-these-republicans-will-be-the-first-to-announce-a-run-for-president-20260721225459357
| Fihdrzgdd | Yes | 100 |
| LornaPredicts | No | 62.35 |
| Original-Anything-Petition | Yes | 30 |
| SiliconBets | Yes | 23.63 |
| vinii | No | 22 |
| Carabao | No | 20 |
| pootytherewardfarmer | No | 15.3 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
