Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President: Up 2.4 points in 24 hours, 6.0× its normal daily swing. At its highest in 30 days. 1 other outcome moved by more than noise.
Up 2.4 points in 24 hours, 6.0× its normal daily swing. At its highest in 30 days.
Up 1.9 points in a week, 1.8× a normal week for this contract.
Little change: −5.0 points on the day against a normal daily swing of 3.0.
Little change: −1.2 points on the day against a normal daily swing of 0.9.
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| Outcome | 30 days ago | Now |
|---|---|---|
| None before 2027 | 34% | 39% |
| Netanyahu - Israel PM | 35% | 37% |
| Sánchez - Spanish PM | 1.4% | 4.3% |
| Lecornu - France PM | 13% | 4.2% |
| Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President | 1.1% | 2.7% |
| Xi - General Secretary of the CCP | <1% | 2.3% |
| Outcome | Bid / ask | Within 2¢ | $1K pays | $10K pays |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| None before 2027 | 38¢/39¢ | $250, $5.3K | 39¢+0.0 | 47¢+7.8 |
| Netanyahu - Israel PM | 35¢/38¢ | $251, $1.5K | 39¢+0.7 | 66¢+28 |
| Sánchez - Spanish PM | 4.1¢/4.4¢ | $32, $18 | 19¢+15 | 43¢+38 |
| Lecornu - France PM | 3.3¢/5.2¢ | $208, $54 | 18¢+13 | 44¢+39 |
| Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President | 0.8¢/4.6¢ | $70, $155 | 13¢+8.3 | 41¢+36 |
Vultax Research: how Polymarket trader leaderboards compare
Vultax Research: what copying a Polymarket trade 30 seconds late costs
Last recorded read: 2026-10-27 18:34 UTC
Down 2.0 points in a week, 1.9× a normal week for this contract.
Up 1.9 points in a week, 1.8× a normal week for this contract.
Up 10 points in a week, 1.9× a normal week for this contract. 3 days running in the same direction. At its highest in 30 days.
Up 2.4 points in 24 hours, 6.0× its normal daily swing.
Up 2.0 points in 24 hours, 5.0× its normal daily swing.
Up 6.5 points in 24 hours, 2.6× its normal daily swing.
Down 0.9 points on the day, against a week that ran up 2.8: 2.1× its normal daily swing, the other way.
Down 12 points in 24 hours, 3.8× its normal daily swing.
Up 2.4 points in 24 hours, 5.9× its normal daily swing. At its highest in 30 days.
On Polymarket, “Next leader out of power before 2027?” has None before 2027 in front at 39%, on $95.6K traded across that market in the last 24 hours. This room reads 36 open markets across 8 Polymarket events, which together traded $272K over the same 24 hours and hold $1.4M of resting liquidity. Prices as of 27 Oct 2026, 18:37 UTC.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| None before 2027 | 39% | — | — | $33.6K |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 40% | — | — | $0 |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | 4.5% | — | — | $159K | $276K |
| Market | Resolved as | Total volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Japan prime minister Ishiba out by September 30? | Yes | $206K | 7 Sep 2025 |
| Paetongtarn Shinawatra out as PM of Thailand by December 31? | Yes | $47.9K | 29 Aug 2025 |
The World leaders room has no sourced event timeline to set its moves beside, so the cause of each move is unconfirmed.
This room reads Polymarket's markets on heads of state and government leaving office: who goes first among a listed group, and each leader by deadline, from Xi Jinping to Emmanuel Macron, Friedrich Merz and Keir Starmer. Each price carries its 24-hour volume and resting liquidity.
Most of these markets ask whether a leader is out by a date, so one event holds several deadlines, and the later ones always cost more. The rules decide what counts as out: a resignation, a lost confidence vote, or a successor taking office, and some count only the announcement.
| 1 Jan 2027 |
| Yes39¢No62¢ |
| Netanyahu - Israel PM | 37% | — | — | $4.2K | $27.5K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes37¢No64¢ |
| Sánchez - Spanish PM | 4.3% | — | — | $1.0K | $28.5K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes4.3¢No96¢ |
| Lecornu - France PM | 4.3% | — | — | $839 | $22.1K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes4.3¢No96¢ |
| Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President | 2.7% | — | — | $6.9K | $26.1K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes2.7¢No97¢ |
| Xi - General Secretary of the CCP | 2.3% | — | — | $3.7K | $26.4K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes2.3¢No98¢ |
| Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea | 2.3% | — | — | $1.4K | $22.9K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes2.3¢No98¢ |
| Merz - German Chancellor | 1.7% | — | — | $260 | $21.3K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes1.7¢No98¢ |
| Abbas - President of Palestine | <1% | — | — | $661 | $22.5K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes0.95¢No99.05¢ |
| Newsom - California Governor | <1% | — | — | $9.9K | $20.1K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes0.8¢No99.2¢ |
| 1 Jan 2028 |
| Yes40¢No61¢ |
| June 30, 2027 | 31% | — | — | $0 | $44.8K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes31¢No70¢ |
| March 31, 2027 | 11% | — | — | $57 | $36.6K | 1 Apr 2027 | Yes11¢No89¢ |
| December 31, 2026 | 4.5% | — | — | $5.8K | $69.7K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes4.5¢No96¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 3.4% | — | — | $1.7K | $87.5K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes3.4¢No97¢ |
| 1 Jan 2027 |
| Yes4.5¢No95¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 7.3% | — | — | $5.6K | $51.4K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes7.3¢No93¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 30, 2026 | 13% | — | — | $80 | $12.9K | 1 Dec 2026 | Yes13¢No87¢ |
| October 31, 2026 | 4.4% | — | — | $76 | $19.5K | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes4.4¢No96¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 18% | — | — | $101 | $14.8K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes18¢No82¢ |
| October 31, 2026 | 3.4% | — | — | $0 | $19.0K | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes3.4¢No97¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 1.8% | — | — | $0 | $10.2K | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes1.8¢No98¢ |
Prices are read from Polymarket's public markets and trades and describe what traders pay, not a forecast or recommendation by Vultax.
Your notebook
Market rulesCloses 1 Jan 2028, 04:59 UTCRead 27 Oct 2026, 18:37 UTC
Same as the market so far
Your scenario
39.5%
Market 39.5% · +0.0 pts
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