Analytics
Yes is at 6.5%, down 17 points from 23.5% when the market opened on 6 Nov 2025.
Across the 320 daily closes on record from 6 Nov 2025 to 28 Oct 2026 (37 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 29.5% on 16 Sep 2026 and the lowest 4.5% on 17 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 5.5%; a month before, 11.5%. Its largest one-day move was 10 points down, to 19.5% on 17 Sep 2026.
It is one of 6 markets under “Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?”.
$1.41K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $2.37M since listing. The order book holds $62.82K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $5.5K bought Yes and $51.69K bought No; the largest was a $9.03K buy of No at 90.0¢.
The largest Yes position is neutralwave23 with 67.4K shares; the largest No position is aff3 with 279.3K. Ten wallets hold 59.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 7:54 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 320 points, 6 Nov 2025 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2025 | 23.5% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 4.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| aff3 | No | 279.27K |
| GoriIIa | No | 260.3K |
| neutralwave23 | Yes | 67.42K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-before-2027
| flawfence |
| Yes |
| 58.9K |
| thoodr | No | 56.74K |
| MerziPuperzi | Yes | 55.24K |
| Danielj | Yes | 44.93K |
| Animalmother | Yes | 40.38K |
| jackcartwright | Yes | 37.16K |
| Bright Comet 654F | Yes | 37.11K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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