Analytics
Yes is at 0.3%, down 16 points from 16.5% when the market opened on 16 Sep 2026.
Across the 40 daily closes on record from 16 Sep 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (6 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 18% on 21 Sep 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 30 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 0.9%; a month before, 2.4%. Its largest one-day move was 9 points down, to 9% on 22 Sep 2026.
It is one of 6 markets under “Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?”.
$517.89 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $175.3K since listing. The order book holds $43.72K, with a 0.1% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $2.78K bought Yes and $47.98K bought No; the largest was a $8.31K buy of No at 93.0¢.
The largest Yes position is neutralwave23 with 16.3K shares; the largest No position is GoriIIa with 12.1K. Ten wallets hold 60.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Nov 2026, 2 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:07 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 40 points, 16 Sep 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Sep 2026 | 16.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 0.3% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| neutralwave23 | Yes | 16.26K |
| GoriIIa | No | 12.07K |
| The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA | No | 11.32K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-before-2027
| 18in36out | No | 8.58K |
| aff3 | No | 7.03K |
| fiter | Yes | 5.73K |
| ka7ak | Yes | 4.42K |
| bryp12345 | No | 3.6K |
| Bukaj0889 | No | 3.49K |
| Furiousum | Yes | 2.91K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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