Analytics
Yes is at 11.5%, down 11 points from 22% when the market opened on 6 Oct 2026.
Across the 22 daily closes on record from 6 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 22% on 6 Oct 2026 and the lowest 10% on 23 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 10%. Its largest one-day move was 7 points up, to 17% on 24 Oct 2026.
It is one of 6 markets under “Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?”.
$10.27K traded in the last 24 hours, out of $40.1K since listing. The order book holds $22.42K, with a 1.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 222 trades, $1.92K bought Yes and $13.44K bought No; the largest was a $3.75K buy of No at 83.7¢.
The largest Yes position is Animalmother with 8K shares; the largest No position is gorovi with 13.2K. Ten wallets hold 91.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Apr 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 1:29 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 6 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 5%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Oct 2026 | 22.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 11.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| gorovi | No | 13.17K |
| Animalmother | Yes | 8.02K |
| DerDon | Yes | 2.28K |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-before-2027
| Serene-Decision |
| No |
| 2K |
| Flamboyant-Warming | Yes | 1.59K |
| Fickle-Halt-Window | Yes | 957.52 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 708.95 |
| Gl4d | Yes | 699.99 |
| Aromatic-Carter | Yes | 499 |
| HerrieDavis | Yes | 410.12 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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