Nothing here has moved by more than its normal daily swing. The prices below are where the market has settled for now.
Little change: −1.0 points on the day against a normal daily swing of 0.5.
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| Outcome | 30 days ago | Now |
|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 14% | 8.5% |
| Outcome | Bid / ask | Within 2¢ | $1K pays | $10K pays |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 8¢/9¢ | $2.1K, $1.1K | 9.9¢+0.9 | 27¢+18 |
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On Polymarket, “US military action against Cuba by...?” has December 31 in front at 8.5%, on $6.7K traded across that market in the last 24 hours. This room reads 25 open markets across 19 Polymarket events, which together traded $22.2K over the same 24 hours and hold $498K of resting liquidity. Prices as of 27 Oct 2026, 16:34 UTC.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | 4.5% | — | — | $13.2K | $96.1K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes4.5¢No96¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 8.5% | — | — | $6.7K | $50.4K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes8.5¢No92¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? | 1.7% | — | — | $1.0K | $34.6K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes1.7¢No98¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? | 2.9% | — | — | $264 | $45.9K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes2.9¢No97¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 21% | — | — | $92 | $29.3K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes21¢No80¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Cuba military clash in 2026? | 14% | — | — | $4 | $17.5K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes14¢No86¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 3.5% | — | — | $0 | $17.3K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes3.5¢No97¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | 11% | — | — | $196 | $52.4K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes11¢No89¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 8.5% | — | — | $175 | $39.9K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes8.5¢No92¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 12% | — | — | $130 | $2.0K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes12¢No89¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 17% | — | — | $4 | $253 | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes17¢No83¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 4.3% | — | — | $1 | $15.3K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes4.3¢No96¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 9.5% | — | — | $0 | $10.8K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes9.5¢No91¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 2.5% | — | — | $0 | $16.2K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes2.5¢No98¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 6% | — | — | $0 | $10.6K | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes6¢No94¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 3.5% | — | — | $260 | $15.5K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes3.5¢No96¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar | 18% | — | — | $0 | $264 | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes18¢No83¢ |
| Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar | 15% | — | — | $124 | $285 | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes15¢No85¢ |
| Ricardo Ruiz Velasco | 15% | — | — | $0 | $386 | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes15¢No85¢ |
| Juan Pablo Ledezma | 13% | — | — | $0 | $10.3K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes13¢No87¢ |
| Market | Resolved as | Total volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cuba nationwide internet/power outage by...? | August 31 | $14.6K | 3 Aug 2026 |
| US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by...? | May 31 | $2.5M | 2 Jun 2026 |
| US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by...? | May 31 | $232K | 21 May 2026 |
| US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro? | Yes | $167K | 20 May 2026 |
| US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by...? | May 31 | $78.2K | 14 May 2026 |
The Cuba and the region room has no sourced event timeline to set its moves beside, so the cause of each move is unconfirmed.
This room reads Polymarket's markets on Cuba and the wider region: whether the US takes military action against Cuba or invades, whether Cuba's government and President Miguel Díaz-Canel last, and the markets on US strikes in Mexico and Colombia and the cartel war. Each price carries its 24-hour volume and resting liquidity.
Military action markets are read against their rules, which name what counts: a strike on the country's territory, an acknowledged operation, or forces crossing the border. A deployment or a blockade near a country does not always count. Venezuela has its own room.
