Analytics
Yes is at 1.6%, down 4.5 points from 6% when the market opened on 6 Jan 2026.
Across the 266 daily closes on record from 6 Jan 2026 to 27 Oct 2026 (30 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 9.5% on 14 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.8% on 21 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 2.1%; a month before, 1.5%.
$917.12 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $264.42K since listing. The order book holds $31.59K, with a 0.7% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 500 trades, $492.14 bought Yes and $57.31K bought No; the largest was a $3.92K buy of No at 98.0¢.
The largest Yes position is Threadbare-Signal with 3.1K shares; the largest No position is Alegrandebig with 8.5K. Ten wallets hold 64.3% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 66 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 27, 7:59 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 266 points, 6 Jan 2026 – 27 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Jan 2026 | 6.0% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | 1.6% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Alegrandebig | No | 8.52K |
| Threadbare-Signal | Yes | 3.15K |
| AMAM13 | Yes | 2.53K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-mexico-in-2026
| Swift Beacon 369B |
| No |
| 2.41K |
| 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | No | 2.4K |
| JShurA87 | Yes | 2.33K |
| GTOrski1 | No | 1.69K |
| Lan-U | Yes | 1.21K |
| Prize-Intelligence | Yes | 1.09K |
| Slowroasted | No | 833.76 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
