Nothing here has moved by more than its normal daily swing. The prices below are where the market has settled for now.
Little change: −0.4 points on the day against a normal daily swing of 0.4.
Little change: +0.2 points on the day against a normal daily swing of 0.4.
Little change: +0.0 points on the day against a normal daily swing of 0.4.
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Each line is the price of one outcome on Polymarket, read as a probability. Hover or tap to read every line on the same day.
| Outcome | 30 days ago | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Kimi Antonelli | 73% | 92% |
| Lando Norris | 3.0% | 2.8% |
| George Russell | 7.5% | 2.3% |
Dollars traded in the last 24 hours, event by event, with the outcome leading each one.
The same question on both venues: F1 drivers' champion.
Gap = Polymarket minus Kalshi, in probability points. Kalshi is read at the middle of its quote. The two contracts settle on their own rules and fees, so a gap is a reading, not a free trade. Kalshi market
Vultax Research: what Kalshi and Polymarket price gaps are worth after fees
The order book behind “F1 Drivers' Champion”, read a minute ago.
| Outcome | Bid / ask | Within 2¢ | $1K pays | $10K pays |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kimi Antonelli | 92¢/92¢ | $15.9K · $35.3K | 92¢+0.0 | |
| Lando Norris | 2.6¢/2.8¢ | $1.2K · $591 | 4.1¢+1.3 | |
| George Russell | 1.9¢/2.6¢ | $779 · $8.7K | 3.7¢+1.1 | |
| Lewis Hamilton | 0.5¢/0.6¢ | $672 · $4.8K | 1.5¢+0.9 | |
| Charles Leclerc | 0.4¢/0.5¢ | $310 · $2.9K | 0.8¢+0.3 |
Average price a buy order of that size would pay against the offers resting now, and how many points that is above the best offer. “Within 2¢” is the dollars resting near the touch on the bid and the offer side.
Vultax Research: how much size prediction market order books hold
Polymarket publishes no view counts. Comments are the nearest thing to a crowd, and they do not always follow the money.
Biggest holders in this market's two leading outcomes, valued at the current price. Open a name for the wallet's record on Vultax.
7 more positions in this market
Who holds the most on each side, valued at the current price, with each wallet's record one click away.
Vultax Research: how Polymarket trader leaderboards compare
Prints of $1,000 and more in the room's busiest markets, newest first.
9 more large trades in this room
Each print of $1,000 and more as it happens: who, which side, what price.
On Polymarket, “F1 Drivers' Champion” has Kimi Antonelli in front at 92%, on $8.3K traded across that market in the last 24 hours. This room reads 343 open markets across 23 Polymarket events, which together traded $14.8K over the same 24 hours and hold $4.6M of resting liquidity. Prices as of 21 Sep 2026, 06:29 UTC.
Drivers' and constructors' titles
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kimi Antonelli | 92% | 0 | +1.2 | $4.4K | $137K | 6 Dec 2026 | Yes92¢No7.9¢ |
| Lando Norris | 2.7% |
Winners, podiums and head-to-heads, race by race
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kimi Antonelli | 41% | −1.0 | +1.5 | $221 | $12.2K | 3 Oct 2026 | Yes41¢No59¢ |
Driver moves, team changes and the rest
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alix Earle attend an F1 race in 2026? | 27% | −19 | −20 | $40 | $30 | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes27¢No73¢ |
Largest price changes in points, counted only on markets that traded at least $1,000 in the same 24 hours. The number beside each move is that market’s 24-hour volume.
Change in probability points since the same time the previous week
The most recently settled Polymarket markets on this subject, with the outcome that paid and the total traded over the market’s life. A settled market is the only place a prediction market can be checked against what happened.
| Market | Resolved as | Total volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Italian Grand Prix? | Yes | $20.9K | 15 Sep 2026 |
| Spanish Grand Prix: Driver Podium Finish | Lando Norris | $118K | 14 Sep 2026 |
| Spanish Grand Prix: Driver Winner | Kimi Antonelli | $809K | 13 Sep 2026 |
| Spanish Grand Prix: Driver Pole Position | Lando Norris | $120K | 12 Sep 2026 |
| Italian Grand Prix: Driver Winner | Kimi Antonelli | $1.1M | 7 Sep 2026 |
This room reads every open Polymarket market tagged to Formula 1 and sorts it into the two championships, the Grands Prix and the driver market. The drivers' title is one of the largest sports markets on the venue by money traded, and it is priced here beside the same question on Kalshi.
A price is the cost of a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens, so 62¢ reads as a 62% chance. In a market with many named outcomes the prices should add up to roughly 100%; a gap is the venue's spread and fees, not a free lunch.
A title market in Formula 1 is arithmetic as much as opinion. Points left on the table fall with every race, so a lead that was a slight edge in spring becomes close to certainty in autumn without the gap changing at all. Race markets are the opposite: they open days before the event and move most on qualifying, grid penalties and the weather.
Each market resolves on its own written rules, including the deadline, the resolution source and what counts as the event. Two markets on the same subject with different wording can and do trade at different prices, so read the rules on the market page before comparing them.
| 0 |
| −0.5 |
| $569 |
| $263K |
| 6 Dec 2026 |
| Yes2.7¢No97¢ |
| George Russell | 2.3% | 0 | 0 | $105 | $337K | 6 Dec 2026 | Yes2.3¢No98¢ |
| Lewis Hamilton | <1% | 0 | 0 | $881 | $400K | 6 Dec 2026 | Yes0.5¢No99¢ |
| Charles Leclerc | <1% | — | 0 | $1.3K | $445K | 6 Dec 2026 | Yes0.4¢No100¢ |
| Max Verstappen | <1% | — | — | $994 | $398K | 6 Dec 2026 | Yes0.3¢No100¢ |
| Oscar Piastri | <1% | — | 0 | $0 | $413K | 6 Dec 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| Isack Hadjar | <1% | — | — | $0 | $704K | 6 Dec 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| Liam Lawson | <1% | — | — | $0 | $902K | 6 Dec 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mercedes | 96% | 0 | 0 | $624 | $27.4K | 6 Dec 2026 | Yes96¢No4.2¢ |
| Ferrari | 1.3% | +0.7 | — | $2.8K | $40.0K | 6 Dec 2026 | Yes1.3¢No99¢ |
| McLaren | <1% | — | — | $0 | $68.0K | 6 Dec 2026 | Yes0.5¢No100¢ |
| Red Bull Racing | <1% | — | 0 | $0 | $126K | 6 Dec 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F1: Will Carlos Sainz finish ahead of Fernando Alonso in the 2026 Drivers' Championship? | 63% | −1.5 | −1.0 | $0 | $237 | 21 Dec 2026 | Yes63¢No37¢ |
| Lando Norris | 20% | — | +3.5 | $0 | $10.6K | 3 Oct 2026 | Yes20¢No81¢ |
| George Russell | 12% | +0.5 | −4.5 | $625 | $8.0K | 3 Oct 2026 | Yes12¢No89¢ |
| Max Verstappen | 9.5% | — | — | $100 | $10.0K | 3 Oct 2026 | Yes9.5¢No91¢ |
| Lewis Hamilton | 9.5% | — | −3.0 | $60 | $11.4K | 3 Oct 2026 | Yes9.5¢No91¢ |
| Charles Leclerc | 6.5% | — | −3.0 | $428 | $12.3K | 3 Oct 2026 | Yes6.5¢No94¢ |
| Oscar Piastri | 3.5% | — | −3.0 | $36 | $15.6K | 3 Oct 2026 | Yes3.5¢No97¢ |
| Isack Hadjar | 1.3% | −1.1 | −2.8 | $0 | $4.0K | 3 Oct 2026 | Yes1.3¢No99¢ |
15 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kimi Antonelli | 76% | −0.5 | +1.0 | $0 | $2.0K | 3 Oct 2026 | Yes76¢No24¢ |
| Lando Norris | 53% | −1.5 | +7.5 | $0 | $2.0K | 3 Oct 2026 | Yes53¢No47¢ |
| George Russell | 49% | — | +3.5 | $0 | $1.6K | 3 Oct 2026 | Yes49¢No52¢ |
| Max Verstappen | 44% | +1.0 | +11 | $7 | $1.5K | 3 Oct 2026 | Yes44¢No56¢ |
| Yuki Tsunoda | 42% | −2.5 | −7.0 | $0 | $22 | 3 Oct 2026 | Yes42¢No58¢ |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | 42% | +39 | −8.4 | $0 | $1.0K | 3 Oct 2026 | Yes42¢No58¢ |
| Nico Hulkenberg | 40% | +34 | −10.0 | $0 | $1.2K | 3 Oct 2026 | Yes40¢No60¢ |
| Lewis Hamilton | 36% | −2.5 | −9.5 | $0 | $1.3K | 3 Oct 2026 | Yes36¢No64¢ |
15 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hadjar | 55% | — | — | $3 | $300 | 30 Aug 2026 | Buy55¢ |
| Verstappen | 45% | — | 0 | $3 | $300 | 30 Aug 2026 | Buy45¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Spanish Grand Prix? | <1% | — | −2.4 | $13 | $3.2K | 21 Sep 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the 2026 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix take place? | 57% | +12 | — | $3 | $101 | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes57¢No43¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lando Norris | 46% | — | +10 | $0 | $164 | 2 Oct 2026 | Yes46¢No54¢ |
| Kimi Antonelli | 34% | −7.0 | −0.5 | $0 | $837 | 2 Oct 2026 | Yes34¢No66¢ |
| Franco Colapinto | 31% | +0.5 | +3.5 | $0 | $250 | 2 Oct 2026 | Yes31¢No69¢ |
| Max Verstappen | 31% | — | −3.5 | $0 | $128 | 2 Oct 2026 | Yes31¢No70¢ |
| Charles Leclerc | 28% | — | −7.0 | $0 | $183 | 2 Oct 2026 | Yes28¢No73¢ |
| Oscar Piastri | 28% | — | −7.5 | $0 | $198 | 2 Oct 2026 | Yes28¢No73¢ |
| George Russell | 28% | — | −10 | $0 | $189 | 2 Oct 2026 | Yes28¢No73¢ |
| Pierre Gasly | 27% | −0.5 | −1.0 | $0 | $198 | 2 Oct 2026 | Yes27¢No74¢ |
15 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam Lawson | 50% | 0 | +47 | $0 | $2 | 1 Oct 2026 | Yes50¢No50¢ |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | 50% | 0 | +48 | $0 | $3 | 1 Oct 2026 | Yes50¢No50¢ |
| Carlos Sainz Jr. | 50% | 0 | +48 | $0 | $3 | 1 Oct 2026 | Yes50¢No50¢ |
| Arvid Lindblad | 50% | 0 | +48 | $0 | $3 | 1 Oct 2026 | Yes50¢No50¢ |
| Yuki Tsunoda | 50% | +1.9 | +48 | $0 | $3 | 1 Oct 2026 | Yes50¢No50¢ |
| Pierre Gasly | 49% | +3.0 | +6.5 | $0 | $4 | 1 Oct 2026 | Yes49¢No52¢ |
| Charles Leclerc | 49% | +3.0 | +9.0 | $0 | $3 | 1 Oct 2026 | Yes49¢No52¢ |
| Lando Norris | 49% | +3.5 | +6.5 | $0 | $3 | 1 Oct 2026 | Yes49¢No52¢ |
15 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
9 further markets matched this board and are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lando Norris win 3+ Grands Prix in 2026? | 75% | — | +2.0 | $0 | $73 | 21 Dec 2026 | Yes75¢No26¢ |
| Italian Grand Prix: Driver Podium Finish | Kimi Antonelli | $108K | 6 Sep 2026 |
| Italian Grand Prix: Driver Pole Position | Pierre Gasly | $102K | 6 Sep 2026 |
| Will it rain during the Dutch Grand Prix? | Yes | $20.2K | 25 Aug 2026 |
| Dutch Grand Prix: Driver Podium Finish | Lando Norris | $85.2K | 24 Aug 2026 |
| Dutch Grand Prix: Driver Winner | Lando Norris | $567K | 24 Aug 2026 |
Prices are read from Polymarket's public markets and trades and describe what traders pay, not a forecast or recommendation by Vultax.
