Prices as of 6 Nov 2026, 10:09 UTC.
Nothing here has moved by more than its normal daily swing. The prices below are where the market has settled for now.
Down 19 points in a week, 7.0× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days. Volume is 2.1× a normal day, so money came with it.
Up 16 points in a week, 3.1× a normal week for this contract. Volume is 2.1× a normal day, so money came with it.
Down 13 points in a week, 3.3× a normal week for this contract. Volume is 2.1× a normal day, so money came with it.
Down 5.5 points in a week, 5.2× a normal week for this contract. At its lowest in 30 days. Volume is 2.1× a normal day, so money came with it.
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| Outcome | 30 days ago, or first full day | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | 52% on 15 Oct, its first full day (listed 14 Oct) | 82% |
| Lewis Hamilton | 48% on 15 Oct, its first full day (listed 14 Oct) | 15% |
| George Russell | 47% on 15 Oct, its first full day (listed 14 Oct) | 11% |
| Charles Leclerc | 48% on 15 Oct, its first full day (listed 14 Oct) | 11% |
| Lando Norris | 46% on 15 Oct, its first full day (listed 14 Oct) | 2.2% |
| Outcome | Bid / ask | Within 2¢ | $1K pays | $10K pays |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | 73¢/90¢ | $85, $318 | 93¢fills $575 | 93¢fills $575 |
| Lewis Hamilton | 0.6¢/29¢ | $3, $37 | 60¢+31 | 67¢fills $1.4K |
| George Russell | 2¢/20¢ | $1, $1 | 68¢+48 | 69¢fills $1.1K |
| Charles Leclerc | 1.1¢/20¢ | $3, $5 | 53¢+34 | 63¢fills $1.5K |
| Lando Norris | 0.4¢/3.9¢ | $2, $2 | 45¢+41 | 52¢fills $1.4K |
Vultax Research: what copying a Polymarket trade 30 seconds late costs
Last recorded read: 2026-11-06 10:03 UTC
Up 1.1 points in 24 hours, 2.6× its normal daily swing. At its highest in 30 days. Volume is well under a normal day, so treat it with care.
Down 1.1 points in 24 hours, 2.6× its normal daily swing.
Down 0.8 points on the day, against a week that ran up 1.1: 2.0× its normal daily swing, the other way.
Up 2.0 points in a week, 1.9× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days.
Up 1.8 points in a week, 1.7× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days.
Up 2.1 points in a week, 1.9× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days.
Up 2.0 points in a week, 1.9× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days. Volume is 3.7× a normal day, so money came with it.
Up 1.9 points in a week, 1.7× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days. Volume is 3.8× a normal day, so money came with it.
Up 2.0 points in 24 hours, 5.0× its normal daily swing. At its highest in 30 days. Volume is 3.8× a normal day, so money came with it.
Down 1.6 points in 24 hours, 4.0× its normal daily swing. Volume is 3.7× a normal day, so money came with it.
Up 1.3 points in 24 hours, 3.4× its normal daily swing. Up 1.8 on the week. At its highest in 30 days. Volume is 2.5× a normal day, so money came with it.
Down 1.1 points in 24 hours, 2.8× its normal daily swing. Volume is 2.0× a normal day, so money came with it.
Up 1.6 points in 24 hours, 4.0× its normal daily swing. At its highest in 30 days. Volume is 2.3× a normal day, so money came with it.
Up 1.0 points in 24 hours, 2.6× its normal daily swing. At its highest in 30 days. Volume is 2.1× a normal day, so money came with it.
Down 1.0 points in 24 hours, 2.5× its normal daily swing.
Up 1.1 points in a week, 1.0× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days.
Up 1.0 points in a week, 0.9× a normal week for this contract. At its highest in 30 days.
Up 2.1 points in a week, 2.0× a normal week for this contract.
Down 1.3 points in 24 hours, 3.3× its normal daily swing.
Down 1.2 points in 24 hours, 3.1× its normal daily swing. Volume is well under a normal day, so treat it with care.
Up 1.9 points in a week, 1.8× a normal week for this contract. 3 days running in the same direction. At its highest in 30 days. Volume is 3.8× a normal day, so money came with it.
Up 3.0 points in 24 hours, 7.5× its normal daily swing. At its highest in 30 days. Volume is 3.8× a normal day, so money came with it.
Down 1.1 points in 24 hours, 2.6× its normal daily swing. Volume is 4.0× a normal day, so money came with it.
Up 1.7 points in 24 hours, 4.3× its normal daily swing. At its highest in 30 days. Volume is 3.7× a normal day, so money came with it.
Each row is one settled Polymarket market on the drivers' championship: the outcome priced highest 30 days, 7 days and one day before the result was known, and the eventual winner's own price at the same moments. In a tournament or a season, the one-day reading falls before the deciding day.
The day-before favourite won the one season scored here; the eventual result traded at 73.5% on average that day.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mercedes | >99% | — | — | $748 | $73.5K |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | 42% | — | — | $573 |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qatar | 72% | — | — | $29 |
| Market | Resolved as | Total volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be a red flag during the 2026 F1 Mexican Grand Prix? | Yes | $299 | awaiting settlement |
| F1 Drivers' Champion | Kimi Antonelli | $206M | 5 Nov 2026 |
| Mexican Grand Prix: Driver Winner | Max Verstappen | $659K | 2 Nov 2026 |
| Mexican Grand Prix: Driver Podium Finish |
Each recorded move in the Formula 1 room beside the room's own sourced events near it: reports by when they were published, calendar and record entries by the date they name. Close in time is not a cause: Vultax has not confirmed why any of these prices moved.
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the day ending at this daily close. Cause unconfirmed.
Up 1.1 points in 24 hours, 2.6× its normal daily swing. At its highest in 30 days. Volume is well under a normal day, so treat it with care.
This room reads every open Polymarket market tagged to Formula 1 and sorts it into the two championships, the Grands Prix and the driver market. The drivers' title is one of the largest sports markets on the venue by money traded.
A price is the cost of a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens, so 62¢ reads as a 62% chance. In a market with many named outcomes the prices should add up to roughly 100%; a gap is the venue's spread and fees, not a free lunch.
A title market in Formula 1 is arithmetic as much as opinion. Points left on the table fall with every race, so a lead that was a slight edge in spring becomes close to certainty in autumn without the gap changing at all. Race markets are the opposite: they open days before the event and move most on qualifying, grid penalties and the weather.
Each market resolves on its own written rules, including the deadline, the resolution source and what counts as the event. Two markets on the same subject with different wording can and do trade at different prices, so read the rules on the market page before comparing them.
Prices are Polymarket's daily closing prices from its public price history, read at the last close before each checkpoint; outcomes that traded less than $1,000 over their life are left out, and a new market's opening 50% placeholder is not counted as a price.
| Yes99.85¢No0.15¢ |
| Ferrari | <1% | — | — | $0 | $46.4K | 1 Apr 2027 | Yes0.25¢No99.75¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F1: Will Carlos Sainz finish ahead of Fernando Alonso in the 2026 Drivers' Championship? | 48% | — | — | $61 | $60 | 21 Dec 2026 | Yes48¢No52¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | 82% | — | — | $46 | $496 | 6 Dec 2026 | Yes82¢No19¢ |
| Lewis Hamilton | 15% | — | — | $0 | $703 | 6 Dec 2026 | Yes15¢No85¢ |
| George Russell | 11% | — | — | $0 | $470 | 6 Dec 2026 | Yes11¢No89¢ |
| Charles Leclerc | 11% | — | — | $0 | $887 | 6 Dec 2026 | Yes11¢No90¢ |
| Lando Norris | 2.1% | — | — | $0 | $1.2K | 6 Dec 2026 | Yes2.1¢No98¢ |
| 15 Nov 2026 |
| Yes42¢No59¢ |
| Kimi Antonelli | 26% | — | — | $935 | $6.1K | 15 Nov 2026 | Yes26¢No75¢ |
| Lewis Hamilton | 13% | — | — | $1.2K | $4.3K | 15 Nov 2026 | Yes13¢No88¢ |
| Charles Leclerc | 11% | — | — | $286 | $6.2K | 15 Nov 2026 | Yes11¢No90¢ |
| Lando Norris | 6.5% | — | — | $487 | $7.1K | 15 Nov 2026 | Yes6.5¢No94¢ |
| George Russell | 6.5% | — | — | $187 | $7.8K | 15 Nov 2026 | Yes6.5¢No94¢ |
| Oscar Piastri | 1.4% | — | — | $0 | $5.8K | 15 Nov 2026 | Yes1.4¢No99¢ |
| Isack Hadjar | <1% | — | — | $0 | $7.4K | 15 Nov 2026 | Yes0.85¢No99.15¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rain during the Brazilian Grand Prix? | 73% | — | — | $174 | $599 | 16 Nov 2026 | Yes73¢No28¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | 71% | — | — | $32 | $2.1K | 15 Nov 2026 | Yes71¢No30¢ |
| Kimi Antonelli | 67% | — | — | $1 | $2.4K | 15 Nov 2026 | Yes67¢No33¢ |
| Lewis Hamilton | 48% | — | — | $107 | $2.8K | 15 Nov 2026 | Yes48¢No53¢ |
| Charles Leclerc | 47% | — | — | $14 | $1.6K | 15 Nov 2026 | Yes47¢No53¢ |
| Lando Norris | 33% | — | — | $0 | $2.4K | 15 Nov 2026 | Yes33¢No68¢ |
| George Russell | 28% | — | — | $0 | $1.6K | 15 Nov 2026 | Yes28¢No73¢ |
| Oscar Piastri | 13% | — | — | $0 | $2.7K | 15 Nov 2026 | Yes13¢No87¢ |
| Isack Hadjar | 11% | — | — | $0 | $2.5K | 15 Nov 2026 | Yes11¢No90¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | 32% | — | — | $0 | $2.4K | 14 Nov 2026 | Yes32¢No68¢ |
| Kimi Antonelli | 26% | — | — | $0 | $2.0K | 14 Nov 2026 | Yes26¢No74¢ |
| Charles Leclerc | 11% | — | — | $14 | $2.5K | 14 Nov 2026 | Yes11¢No89¢ |
| George Russell | 7.5% | — | — | $0 | $2.7K | 14 Nov 2026 | Yes7.5¢No93¢ |
| Lando Norris | 6.5% | — | — | $13 | $3.2K | 14 Nov 2026 | Yes6.5¢No94¢ |
| Isack Hadjar | 2.5% | — | — | $0 | $2.3K | 14 Nov 2026 | Yes2.5¢No97¢ |
| Oscar Piastri | 2.4% | — | — | $0 | $2.8K | 14 Nov 2026 | Yes2.4¢No98¢ |
| Pierre Gasly | 1.9% | — | — | $0 | $2.3K | 14 Nov 2026 | Yes1.9¢No98¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the 2026 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix take place? | 62% | — | — | $0 | $315 | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes62¢No39¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liam Lawson | 2.8% | — | — | $0 | $1.1K | 15 Nov 2026 | Yes2.8¢No97¢ |
| Fernando Alonso | 1.9% | — | — | $0 | $1.4K | 15 Nov 2026 | Yes1.9¢No98¢ |
| Alexander Albon | 1.9% | — | — | $0 | $1.4K | 15 Nov 2026 | Yes1.9¢No98¢ |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | 1.9% | — | — | $0 | $1.4K | 15 Nov 2026 | Yes1.9¢No98¢ |
| Sergio Perez | 1.9% | — | — | $0 | $1.4K | 15 Nov 2026 | Yes1.9¢No98¢ |
| Nico Hulkenberg | 1.9% | — | — | $0 | $1.4K | 15 Nov 2026 | Yes1.9¢No98¢ |
| Valtteri Bottas | 1.9% | — | — | $0 | $1.0K | 15 Nov 2026 | Yes1.9¢No98¢ |
| Oliver Bearman | 1.9% | — | — | $0 | $1.4K | 15 Nov 2026 | Yes1.9¢No98¢ |
| 1 Jan 2027 |
| Yes72¢No28¢ |
| UAE | 71% | — | — | $0 | $197 | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes71¢No29¢ |
| Saudi Arabia | 5.0% | — | — | $0 | $656 | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes5.0¢No95¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alix Earle attend an F1 race in 2026? | 42% | — | — | $0 | $127 | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes42¢No58¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lando Norris win 3+ Grands Prix in 2026? | 40% | — | — | $0 | $68 | 21 Dec 2026 | Yes40¢No60¢ |
| $75.8K |
| 2 Nov 2026 |
| Mexican Grand Prix: Driver Pole Position | Lewis Hamilton | $33.7K | 1 Nov 2026 |
| United States Grand Prix: Driver Podium Finish | Charles Leclerc | $49.3K | 26 Oct 2026 |
| United States Grand Prix: Driver Winner | Kimi Antonelli | $678K | 26 Oct 2026 |
| United States Grand Prix: Driver Pole Position | Kimi Antonelli | $97.6K | 25 Oct 2026 |
| Singapore Grand Prix: Driver Winner | Max Verstappen | $1.1M | 11 Oct 2026 |
| Singapore Grand Prix: Driver Podium Finish | Charles Leclerc | $116K | 11 Oct 2026 |
| Singapore Grand Prix: Driver Fastest Lap | Charles Leclerc | $35.4K | 11 Oct 2026 |
6 further markets are awaiting settlement and are not shown.
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the 24 hours before this recorded read. Cause unconfirmed.
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the day ending at this daily close. Cause unconfirmed.
Down 1.1 points in 24 hours, 2.6× its normal daily swing.
Nothing in this read's sourced events falls near the 24 hours before this recorded read. Cause unconfirmed.
Prices are read from Polymarket's public markets and trades and describe what traders pay, not a forecast or recommendation by Vultax.