Analytics
Yes is at 53%, down 17 points from 70% when the market opened on 29 Aug 2026.
The high was 86.5% on 2 Sep 2026 and the low 37% on 7 Oct 2026. A week ago Yes was at 39.5%; a month ago, 81.5%. Its largest one-day move was 19 points up, to 55.5% on 12 Oct 2026.
$305.71 traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $293.27, with a 56.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 27 trades, $75.33 bought Yes and $84.4 bought No.
The largest Yes position is keoen with 100 shares; the largest No position is DueDiligenceDan with 139. Ten wallets hold 92.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 21 Dec 2026, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 17, 12:09 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 51 points, 29 Aug 2026 – 17 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Aug 2026 | 70.0% |
| 17 Oct 2026 | 53.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| DueDiligenceDan | No | 138.97 |
| keoen | Yes | 100 |
| ethombu | No | 30 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lando Norris is officially classified as the winner of three or more Grands Prix during the 2026 FIA Formula One World Championship season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A win means being listed in first place in the first final race classification published by the FIA following a Grand Prix, including any time penalties and official adjustments applied before publication. Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the first final classification will not affect this market. Sprint race wins will not count. This market will resolve to "Yes" as soon as Norris records his third win as defined above. If at any point it becomes impossible for Norris to win three or more Grands Prix during the 2026 season (e.g. fewer races remain than wins required), this market will immediately resolve to "No". If the remainder of the 2026 Formula One season is cancelled, postponed after December 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or three wins as defined above have not been recorded within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from the FIA and Formula1.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-lando-norris-win-3-grands-prix-in-2026
| Zypf7 |
| Yes |
| 29.54 |
| Robbb | Yes | 21 |
| Mojito9 | No | 19.99 |
| Benshee | Yes | 18.02 |
| PollyEmperor | No | 16.61 |
| zedamanga | Yes | 16.06 |
| solvism | Yes | 7.92 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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