Nothing here has moved by more than its normal daily swing. The prices below are where the market has settled for now.
Little change: −0.1 points on the day against a normal daily swing of 0.4. Volume is 2.0× a normal day, so money came with it.
Little change: +0.0 points on the day against a normal daily swing of 0.4. Volume is 2.0× a normal day, so money came with it.
Little change: +0.0 points on the day against a normal daily swing of 0.4. Volume is 2.0× a normal day, so money came with it.
Little change: +0.0 points on the day against a normal daily swing of 0.4. Volume is 2.0× a normal day, so money came with it.
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Each line is the price of one outcome on Polymarket, read as a probability. Hover or tap to read every line on the same day.
| Outcome | 30 days ago | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 22% | 22% |
| San Antonio Spurs | 21% | 21% |
| New York Knicks | 12% | 12% |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 13% | 11% |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 3.6% | 5.1% |
| Boston Celtics | 4.5% | 4.5% |
Dollars traded in the last 24 hours, event by event, with the outcome leading each one.
The same question on both venues: NBA champion.
Gap = Polymarket minus Kalshi, in probability points. Kalshi is read at the middle of its quote. The two contracts settle on their own rules and fees, so a gap is a reading, not a free trade. Kalshi market
Vultax Research: what Kalshi and Polymarket price gaps are worth after fees
The order book behind “NBA: 2027 Champion”, read a minute ago.
| Outcome | Bid / ask | Within 2¢ | $1K pays | $10K pays |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 21¢/22¢ | $23.9K · $52.2K | 22¢+0.0 | |
| San Antonio Spurs | 20¢/21¢ | $103K · $9.2K | 21¢+0.0 | |
| New York Knicks | 11¢/12¢ | $25.0K · $2.1K | 12¢+0.0 | |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 11¢/11¢ | $2.0K · $1.1K | 12¢+0.9 | |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 5¢/5.2¢ | $2.6K · $1.1K | 5.3¢+0.1 |
Average price a buy order of that size would pay against the offers resting now, and how many points that is above the best offer. “Within 2¢” is the dollars resting near the touch on the bid and the offer side.
Vultax Research: how much size prediction market order books hold
Biggest holders in this market's two leading outcomes, valued at the current price. Open a name for the wallet's record on Vultax.
7 more positions in this market
Who holds the most on each side, valued at the current price, with each wallet's record one click away.
Vultax Research: how Polymarket trader leaderboards compare
Prints of $1,000 and more in the room's busiest markets, newest first.
9 more large trades in this room
Each print of $1,000 and more as it happens: who, which side, what price.
On Polymarket, “NBA: 2027 Champion” has Oklahoma City Thunder in front at 22%, on $116K traded across that market in the last 24 hours. This room reads 509 open markets across 22 Polymarket events, which together traded $119K over the same 24 hours and hold $13M of resting liquidity. Prices as of 21 Sep 2026, 06:30 UTC.
The title, team by team
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 22% | — | — | $17.7K | $327K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes22¢No79¢ |
| San Antonio Spurs | 21% |
Conference champions, and who makes the field
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia 76ers | 21% | — | 0 | $534 | $77.7K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes21¢No79¢ |
MVP, rookies, defenders and coaches
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Wilson | 24% | — | +3.0 | $4 | $26.1K | 31 May 2027 | Yes24¢No77¢ |
Free agency, trades and the draft
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Pistons | 86% | +0.5 | −2.6 | $451 | $964 | 31 Oct 2026 | Yes86¢No14¢ |
The most recently settled Polymarket markets on this subject, with the outcome that paid and the total traded over the market’s life. A settled market is the only place a prediction market can be checked against what happened.
| Market | Resolved as | Total volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|
| NBA: Kawhi Leonard Next Team | Toronto Raptors | $325K | 15 Sep 2026 |
| NBA Free Agency: James Harden Next Team | Cleveland Cavaliers | $1.3M | 9 Sep 2026 |
| NBA Free Agency: Jonathan Kuminga Next Team | Minnesota Timberwolves | $26.0K | 5 Sep 2026 |
| NBA Free Agency: Draymond Green Next Team | Golden State Warriors | $317K | 30 Jul 2026 |
| NBA: How Much Will LeBron’s Next Contract Be? | Under $4M | $332K |
This room reads every open Polymarket market tagged to the NBA and sorts it into the championship, the conferences and the playoff field, season awards, players on the move and the games on the slate. The title market is priced beside the same question on Kalshi.
A price is the cost of a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens, so 62¢ reads as a 62% chance. In a market with many named outcomes the prices should add up to roughly 100%; a gap is the venue's spread and fees, not a free lunch.
A championship market is one distribution across thirty teams, and in basketball it is top-heavy: a handful of rosters hold most of the probability for most of the season. The prices move most on availability. One star's injury report reprices his team, its conference rivals and the title favourite in the same minute, which is why the movement read on this page looks at each team against its own normal swing.
Each market resolves on its own written rules, including the deadline, the resolution source and what counts as the event. Two markets on the same subject with different wording can and do trade at different prices, so read the rules on the market page before comparing them.
| — |
| — |
| $681 |
| $281K |
| 1 Jul 2027 |
| Yes21¢No80¢ |
| New York Knicks | 12% | — | — | $256 | $194K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes12¢No89¢ |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 11% | — | 0 | $543 | $196K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes11¢No89¢ |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 5.1% | 0 | +0.7 | $813 | $175K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes5.1¢No95¢ |
| Boston Celtics | 4.5% | — | — | $316 | $264K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes4.5¢No96¢ |
| Denver Nuggets | 3.0% | — | 0 | $317 | $334K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes3.0¢No97¢ |
| Miami Heat | 3.0% | — | 0 | $300 | $311K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes3.0¢No97¢ |
| Detroit Pistons | 2.9% | — | 0 | $339 | $204K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes2.9¢No97¢ |
| Toronto Raptors | 2.9% | — | 0 | $30 | $331K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes2.9¢No97¢ |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 2.3% | 0 | — | $695 | $418K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes2.3¢No98¢ |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 1.9% | — | — | $0 | $253K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes1.9¢No98¢ |
18 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| New York Knicks | 20% | — | — | $107 | $68.8K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes20¢No81¢ |
| Boston Celtics | 13% | — | −1.0 | $0 | $67.5K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes13¢No88¢ |
| Miami Heat | 8.5% | — | — | $222 | $81.3K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes8.5¢No92¢ |
| Detroit Pistons | 7.5% | — | — | $0 | $66.4K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes7.5¢No93¢ |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 7.1% | — | — | $0 | $71.0K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes7.1¢No93¢ |
| Toronto Raptors | 7.0% | — | — | $0 | $68.2K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes7.0¢No93¢ |
| Indiana Pacers | 4.0% | — | −0.7 | $0 | $59.3K | 1 Jul 2027 | Yes4.0¢No96¢ |
7 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio Spurs | 36% | — | — | $0 | $93.0K | — | Yes36¢No65¢ |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 35% | — | — | $0 | $89.2K | — | Yes35¢No66¢ |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 8.5% | −1.0 | −1.0 | $221 | $64.6K | — | Yes8.5¢No92¢ |
| Denver Nuggets | 6.5% | −1.0 | −1.0 | $0 | $64.2K | — | Yes6.5¢No94¢ |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 5.9% | 0 | +0.9 | $0 | $69.9K | — | Yes5.9¢No94¢ |
| Golden State Warriors | 3.9% | 0 | +1.9 | $0 | $57.1K | — | Yes3.9¢No96¢ |
| Houston Rockets | 2.1% | 0 | 0 | $0 | $59.9K | — | Yes2.1¢No98¢ |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 1.7% | — | — | $0 | $60.7K | — | Yes1.7¢No98¢ |
7 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Knicks | 65% | +0.5 | +17 | $0 | $8 | 5 May 2027 | Yes65¢No36¢ |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 55% | −1.5 | +12 | $0 | $139 | 5 May 2027 | Yes55¢No45¢ |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 33% | +13 | −18 | $0 | $85 | 5 May 2027 | Yes33¢No68¢ |
| Miami Heat | 33% | +14 | +16 | $0 | $108 | 5 May 2027 | Yes33¢No68¢ |
| Toronto Raptors | 31% | +11 | +14 | $0 | $28 | 5 May 2027 | Yes31¢No70¢ |
| Atlanta Hawks | 28% | +11 | +14 | $0 | $19 | 5 May 2027 | Yes28¢No73¢ |
| Charlotte Hornets | 28% | +12 | +14 | $0 | $21 | 5 May 2027 | Yes28¢No73¢ |
| Indiana Pacers | 26% | +12 | +13 | $0 | $22 | 5 May 2027 | Yes26¢No74¢ |
7 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Antonio Spurs | 96% | — | 0 | $0 | $29.4K | — | Yes96¢No3.6¢ |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 96% | — | — | $0 | $28.3K | — | Yes96¢No4.0¢ |
| New York Knicks | 93% | — | +0.5 | $0 | $13.4K | — | Yes93¢No7.0¢ |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 88% | — | +1.5 | $20 | $14.2K | — | Yes88¢No13¢ |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 86% | — | +8.0 | $0 | $14.0K | — | Yes86¢No14¢ |
| Denver Nuggets | 85% | — | — | $0 | $13.7K | — | Yes85¢No16¢ |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 82% | −1.5 | +2.5 | $0 | $16.6K | — | Yes82¢No19¢ |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 80% | — | — | $0 | $16.3K | — | Yes80¢No20¢ |
22 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 79% | — | — | $0 | $5.0K | 5 May 2027 | Yes79¢No21¢ |
| San Antonio Spurs | 79% | −0.5 | −6.0 | $0 | $572 | 5 May 2027 | Yes79¢No21¢ |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 37% | — | — | $0 | $63 | 5 May 2027 | Yes37¢No64¢ |
| Denver Nuggets | 36% | — | +0.5 | $0 | $2.0K | 5 May 2027 | Yes36¢No64¢ |
| Houston Rockets | 34% | — | −0.5 | $0 | $1.0K | 5 May 2027 | Yes34¢No67¢ |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 32% | — | +6.5 | $0 | $1.2K | 5 May 2027 | Yes32¢No68¢ |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 25% | +6.0 | +4.5 | $0 | $690 | 5 May 2027 | Yes25¢No75¢ |
| Golden State Warriors | 23% | — | +2.5 | $0 | $782 | 5 May 2027 | Yes23¢No78¢ |
7 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
2 further markets matched this board and are not shown.
| Cameron Boozer | 23% | — | — | $0 | $34.2K | 31 May 2027 | Yes23¢No78¢ |
| AJ Dybantsa | 21% | — | −2.0 | $0 | $16.0K | 31 May 2027 | Yes21¢No80¢ |
| Darryn Peterson | 17% | — | +0.5 | $0 | $23.7K | 31 May 2027 | Yes17¢No84¢ |
| Darius Acuff Jr. | 4.5% | — | −1.0 | $0 | $23.4K | 31 May 2027 | Yes4.5¢No96¢ |
| Yaxel Lendeborg | 2.8% | — | +0.9 | $0 | $9.1K | 31 May 2027 | Yes2.8¢No97¢ |
24 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Sacramento Kings | 7.9% | +3.4 | +3.5 | $0 | $2.2K | 31 Oct 2026 | Yes7.9¢No92¢ |
| LA Clippers | 2.6% | 0 | +0.9 | $0 | $839 | 31 Oct 2026 | Yes2.6¢No97¢ |
| Houston Rockets | 1.3% | +0.6 | 0 | $0 | $991 | 31 Oct 2026 | Yes1.3¢No99¢ |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 1.1% | +0.5 | −0.8 | $0 | $977 | 31 Oct 2026 | Yes1.1¢No99¢ |
25 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden State Warriors | 13% | −2.3 | +2.4 | $36 | $62 | 18 May 2027 | Yes13¢No87¢ |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 12% | −2.0 | — | $54 | $30 | 18 May 2027 | Yes12¢No89¢ |
| Orlando Magic | 11% | 0 | 0 | $36 | $44 | 18 May 2027 | Yes11¢No89¢ |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 11% | +0.7 | 0 | $18 | $52 | 18 May 2027 | Yes11¢No89¢ |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 11% | 0 | 0 | $18 | $35 | 18 May 2027 | Yes11¢No89¢ |
25 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Rockets | 86% | +1.5 | +40 | $5 | $43 | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes86¢No15¢ |
| Golden State Warriors | 27% | +21 | +1.5 | $5 | $63 | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes27¢No73¢ |
| San Antonio Spurs | 25% | +10 | +1.0 | $0 | $49 | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes25¢No76¢ |
| Boston Celtics | 24% | — | −0.5 | $0 | $180 | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes24¢No76¢ |
| Chicago Bulls | 24% | −5.5 | −0.5 | $0 | $57 | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes24¢No76¢ |
25 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden State Warriors | 98% | 0 | +2.1 | $82 | $14.5K | 12 Feb 2027 | Yes98¢No2.2¢ |
| Charlotte Hornets | 1.2% | 0 | 0 | $0 | $7.5K | 12 Feb 2027 | Yes1.2¢No99¢ |
| Boston Celtics | <1% | 0 | −0.5 | $0 | $1.7K | 12 Feb 2027 | Yes0.8¢No99¢ |
| Miami Heat | <1% | 0 | 0 | $0 | $2.3K | 12 Feb 2027 | Yes0.7¢No99¢ |
| Philadelphia 76ers | <1% | −0.5 | −0.7 | $0 | $1.7K | 12 Feb 2027 | Yes0.7¢No99¢ |
25 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix Suns | 5.1% | 0 | +2.5 | $0 | $55 | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes5.1¢No95¢ |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 2.6% | 0 | — | $0 | $125 | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes2.6¢No97¢ |
| Detroit Pistons | 2.6% | 0 | — | $0 | $145 | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes2.6¢No97¢ |
| Chicago Bulls | 2.5% | 0 | 0 | $0 | $178 | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes2.5¢No98¢ |
| Charlotte Hornets | <1% | 0 | — | $0 | $172 | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes0.7¢No99¢ |
25 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA: Will Anthony Davis be traded by next season? | 5% | — | 0 | $0 | $547 | 23 Oct 2026 | Yes5¢No95¢ |
1 further market matched this board and are not shown.
| 27 Jul 2026 |
| NBA: LeBron James Next Team | Philadelphia 76ers | $46M | 27 Jul 2026 |
| NBA: Will LeBron James Sign By…? | July 27, 2026 | $110K | 25 Jul 2026 |
| NBA Free Agency: Austin Reaves Next Team | Los Angeles Lakers | $2.4M | 13 Jul 2026 |
| NBA Free Agency: Ayo Dosunmu Next Team | Minnesota Timberwolves | $3.8M | 11 Jul 2026 |
| NBA: When Will LeBron Sign? | July 7 or after | $43.0K | 7 Jul 2026 |
Prices are read from Polymarket's public markets and trades and describe what traders pay, not a forecast or recommendation by Vultax.
