Prices as of 9 Oct 2026, 04:04 UTC. The market pays on the change to the deposit facility rate announced that day, in basis points.
Nothing here has moved by more than its normal daily swing. The prices below are where the market has settled for now.
Little change: −1.5 points on the day against a normal daily swing of 5.0.
Little change: −2.0 points on the day against a normal daily swing of 5.5.
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Each line is the price of one outcome on Polymarket, read as a probability. Hover or tap to read every line on the same day.
| Outcome | 30 days ago | Now |
|---|---|---|
| No change | 91% | 92% |
| 25 bps increase | 9.0% | 6.0% |
Dollars traded in the last 24 hours, event by event, with the outcome leading each one.
The order book behind “ECB Interest Rates: October 2026”, read a minute ago.
| Outcome | Bid / ask | Within 2¢ | $1K pays | $10K pays |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change | 91¢/92¢ | $13.7K · $9.5K | 93¢+0.9 | |
| 25 bps increase | 5¢/7.0¢ | $58 · $75 | 11¢+3.7 | |
| 50+ bps decrease | —/0.1¢ | $0 · $34 | 4.4¢+4.3 | |
| 25 bps decrease | —/0.1¢ | $0 · $35 | 3.4¢+3.3 | |
| 50+ bps increase | —/0.1¢ | $0 · $28 | 6.7¢+6.6 |
Average price a buy order of that size would pay against the offers resting now, and how many points that is above the best offer. “Within 2¢” is the dollars resting near the touch on the bid and the offer side.
Biggest holders in this market's two leading outcomes, valued at the current price. Open a name for the wallet's record on Vultax.
7 more positions in this market
Who holds the most on each side, valued at the current price, with each wallet's record one click away.
Vultax Research: how Polymarket trader leaderboards compare
Prints of $1,000 and more in the room's busiest markets, newest first.
9 more large trades in this room
Each print of $1,000 and more as it happens: who, which side, what price.
Every move in this room that cleared Vi IQ's "notable" line, stamped when it happened. Vultax has recorded this room since 5 Oct 2026.
1 earlier move on record
The dated record of every meaningful move in this room: what moved, by how much against its own normal, and whether money came with it.
Each row is the Polymarket market on one Governing Council meeting: the outcome priced highest 30 days, 7 days and one day before the decision, against what the ECB announced, with the deposit facility rate from its press release. The March 2026 meeting is not scored because Polymarket's record carries no traded volume for that market. The open meeting is read live until it resolves.
The day-before favourite won all 15 meetings scored here; the eventual result traded at 98% on average that day.
Prices are Polymarket's daily closing prices from its public price history, read at the last close before each checkpoint; outcomes that traded less than $1,000 over their life are left out, and a new market's opening 50% placeholder is not counted as a price.
One market per Governing Council meeting: the change to the deposit facility rate, in basis points
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change | 92% | −2.0 | +1.0 | $6.5K | $17.7K | 30 Oct 2026 | Yes92¢No8.5¢ |
| 25 bps increase | 6% | −1.5 | −4.5 | $15.3K | $50.1K | 30 Oct 2026 | Yes6¢No94¢ |
| 50+ bps decrease | <1% | — | — | $172 | $21.8K | 30 Oct 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| 25 bps decrease | <1% | — | — | $172 | $28.4K | 30 Oct 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| 50+ bps increase | <1% | — | 0 | $172 | $14.0K | 30 Oct 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 bps increase | 76% | +1.0 | −5.5 | $249 | $1.3K | 17 Dec 2026 | Yes76¢No25¢ |
| No change | 19% | +0.5 | +5.0 | $396 | $1.5K | 17 Dec 2026 | Yes19¢No81¢ |
| 50+ bps increase | 2.3% | 0 | 0 | $0 | $944 | 17 Dec 2026 | Yes2.3¢No98¢ |
| 25 bps decrease | 1.7% | +0.9 | 0 | $0 | $1.0K | 17 Dec 2026 | Yes1.7¢No98¢ |
| 50+ bps decrease | 1.2% | — | +0.7 | $0 | $1.8K | 17 Dec 2026 | Yes1.2¢No99¢ |
Whether rates rise or fall within the calendar year, and who leads the bank
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026? | 22% | −1.5 | −2.0 | $1.0K | $2.2K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes22¢No78¢ |
Largest price changes in points, counted only on markets that traded at least $1,000 in the same 24 hours. The number beside each move is that market’s 24-hour volume.
Change in probability points since the same time the previous day
Change in probability points since the same time the previous week
This room reads Polymarket's markets on the European Central Bank's rate decisions and keeps a scored record of the meetings the venue has priced since October 2024: the outcome the market favoured 30 days, 7 days and one day before, and what the Governing Council announced.
The markets settle on one of the ECB's three key rates, the deposit facility rate: what banks earn on overnight deposits with the Eurosystem. The Council meets to set it eight times a year on dates published well ahead, so each meeting has its own market and this page moves to the next one when a decision is out.
