Prices as of 10 Oct 2026, 07:24 UTC. The two markets pay on different events: the first on the list with the most seats on 25 October, the second on whoever the new Assembly elects and swears in, which can take weeks.
Ilija Srdanović: Up 7.5 points in a week, 1.4× a normal week for this contract.
Up 7.5 points in a week, 1.4× a normal week for this contract.
Little change: −4.6 points on the day against a normal daily swing of 2.3.
Up 3.6 points in 24 hours, 9.1× its normal daily swing.
Trade Serbia Election 2026 on paper, free
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Each line is the price of one outcome on Polymarket, read as a probability. Hover or tap to read every line on the same day.
| Outcome | 30 days ago, or first full day | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Aleksandar Vučić | 72% | 62% |
| Ilija Srdanović | 38% on 16 Sep, its first full day (listed 15 Sep) | 32% |
| Vladan Đokić | 5.3% | 4.3% |
Dollars traded in the last 24 hours, event by event, with the outcome leading each one.
The order book behind “Next Prime Minister of Serbia?”, read a minute ago.
| Outcome | Bid / ask | Within 2¢ | $1K pays | $10K pays |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksandar Vučić | 62¢/62¢ | $1.3K · $4.1K | 62¢+0.0 | |
| Ilija Srdanović | 31¢/32¢ | $3.4K · $4.3K | 32¢+0.0 | |
| Vladan Đokić | 3.2¢/5.8¢ | $5 · $2 | 10¢+4.3 | |
| Stefan Krkobabić | 0.2¢/0.6¢ | $23 · $67 | 6.1¢+5.5 | |
| Đuro Macut | 0.1¢/0.6¢ | $0 · $50 | 6.6¢+6.0 |
Average price a buy order of that size would pay against the offers resting now, and how many points that is above the best offer. “Within 2¢” is the dollars resting near the touch on the bid and the offer side.
Polymarket publishes no view counts. Comments are the nearest thing to a crowd, and they do not always follow the money.
Biggest holders in this market's two leading outcomes, valued at the current price. Open a name for the wallet's record on Vultax.
7 more positions in this market
Who holds the most on each side, valued at the current price, with each wallet's record one click away.
Vultax Research: how Polymarket trader leaderboards compare
Prints of $1,000 and more in the room's busiest markets, newest first.
9 more large trades in this room
Each print of $1,000 and more as it happens: who, which side, what price.
Every move in this room that cleared Vi IQ's "notable" line, stamped when it happened. Vultax has recorded this room since 5 Oct 2026.
4 earlier moves on record
The dated record of every meaningful move in this room: what moved, by how much against its own normal, and whether money came with it.
The list Polymarket priced highest to win the most seats 30 days, 7 days and one day before election day. The result is filled in when that market resolves.
Prices are Polymarket's daily closing prices from its public price history, read at the last close before each checkpoint; outcomes that traded less than $1,000 over their life are left out, and a new market's opening 50% placeholder is not counted as a price.
User reads of each name's English Wikipedia article, 14 Sep 2026 to 8 Oct 2026 (25 days), beside “Next Prime Minister of Serbia?”. Shares are of the names listed here. A price far ahead of attention is a reason to look closer, not evidence of anything on its own.
The 25 October vote, list by list as the ballot names them
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia | 61% | +11 | −5.0 | $77.4K | $107K | 25 Oct 2026 | Yes61¢No40¢ |
Whoever the new National Assembly elects and swears in
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksandar Vučić | 62% | −4.7 | −4.3 | $21.6K | $118K | 25 Oct 2026 | Yes62¢No38¢ |
| Ilija Srdanović |
The presidential election that follows, and when it is called
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miloš Vučević | 35% | — | 0 | $195 | $50.2K | 2 May 2027 | Yes35¢No65¢ |
Largest price changes in points, counted only on markets that traded at least $1,000 in the same 24 hours. The number beside each move is that market’s 24-hour volume.
Change in probability points since the same time the previous day
This room reads every open Polymarket market on Serbia's early parliamentary election of 25 October 2026 and sorts it into the list that wins the most seats, the next prime minister, vote shares and the presidency. Each price carries its 24-hour volume and resting liquidity.
The room leads with the prime minister market, which stays open until a government is sworn in, and scores its record on the seats market, which settles on the vote itself. Polymarket also prices the presidential election that follows; those markets sit on the last board and are not decided on 25 October.
Source: Wikimedia pageviews · user reads of each English Wikipedia article · read 10 Oct 2026
| Student List – Students Win | 39% | −9.5 | +3.0 | $50.3K | $129K | 25 Oct 2026 | Yes39¢No62¢ |
| Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability! | <1% | — | — | $0 | $61.9K | 25 Oct 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| Rasim Ljajić – Humane | <1% | — | — | $0 | $64.2K | 25 Oct 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor | <1% | — | — | $0 | $60.1K | 25 Oct 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| Usame Zukorlić Movement for Unification | <1% | — | — | $0 | $60.9K | 25 Oct 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| Russian Party – Serbia in BRICS – Slobodan Nikolić | <1% | — | — | $0 | $63.8K | 25 Oct 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| Authentic Right – Dr Miloš Jovanović | <1% | — | — | $0 | $61.6K | 25 Oct 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| European Serbia – Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš | <1% | — | — | $0 | $59.8K | 25 Oct 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| SDA of Sandžak – Guardians of Sandžak | <1% | — | — | $0 | $61.4K | 25 Oct 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| 32% |
| +1.0 |
| +7.5 |
| $3.6K |
| $73.4K |
| 25 Oct 2026 |
| Yes32¢No69¢ |
| Vladan Đokić | 5.5% | +4.5 | +2.5 | $709 | $58.0K | 25 Oct 2026 | Yes5.5¢No94¢ |
| Stefan Krkobabić | <1% | — | −3.5 | $1.3K | $46.0K | 25 Oct 2026 | Yes0.4¢No100¢ |
| Đuro Macut | <1% | — | 0 | $259 | $52.5K | 25 Oct 2026 | Yes0.4¢No100¢ |
| Dragan Đilas | <1% | 0 | 0 | $1.6K | $56.2K | 25 Oct 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| Ana Brnabić | <1% | 0 | −1.8 | $228 | $45.9K | 25 Oct 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| Branimir Jovanović | <1% | — | 0 | $35 | $54.3K | 25 Oct 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| Ivica Dačić | <1% | — | −4.1 | $0 | $29.4K | 25 Oct 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| Miloš Vučević | <1% | — | 0 | $0 | $26.3K | 25 Oct 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| European Serbia – Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš | 33% | −2.0 | +5.0 | $342 | $27.7K | 25 Oct 2026 | Yes33¢No68¢ |
| Authentic Right – Dr Miloš Jovanović | 9.8% | −3.4 | +2.5 | $327 | $2.1K | 25 Oct 2026 | Yes9.8¢No90¢ |
| Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor | 5% | −1.1 | +4.9 | $310 | $2.3K | 25 Oct 2026 | Yes5¢No95¢ |
| Rasim Ljajić – Humane | <1% | — | 0 | $287 | $16.0K | 25 Oct 2026 | Yes0.4¢No100¢ |
| Usame Zukorlić Movement for Unification | <1% | 0 | 0 | $152 | $15.8K | 25 Oct 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| SDA of Sandžak – Guardians of Sandžak | <1% | — | 0 | $18 | $18.9K | 25 Oct 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| Russian Party – Serbia in BRICS – Slobodan Nikolić | <1% | — | 0 | $103 | $14.0K | 25 Oct 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
2 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62-66% | 43% | −3.5 | +9.5 | $384 | $1.6K | 25 Oct 2026 | Yes43¢No57¢ |
| 70%+ | 25% | — | — | $249 | $4.1K | 25 Oct 2026 | Yes25¢No75¢ |
| 66-70% | 25% | +5.5 | +1.0 | $560 | $3.5K | 25 Oct 2026 | Yes25¢No76¢ |
| 58-62% | 8.2% | −8.2 | −12 | $317 | $20.9K | 25 Oct 2026 | Yes8.2¢No92¢ |
| <58% | 4.7% | 0 | −2.8 | $190 | $2.2K | 25 Oct 2026 | Yes4.7¢No95¢ |
| Ana Brnabić | 25% | — | +3.0 | $35 | $29.1K | 2 May 2027 | Yes25¢No76¢ |
| Vladan Đokić | 19% | −0.5 | −3.0 | $11 | $34.7K | 2 May 2027 | Yes19¢No82¢ |
| Đuro Macut | 13% | — | −2.5 | $0 | $29.1K | 2 May 2027 | Yes13¢No88¢ |
| Vladan Petrov | 3.1% | 0 | 0 | $0 | $23.6K | 2 May 2027 | Yes3.1¢No97¢ |
| Ivica Dačić | 1.9% | — | −1.2 | $0 | $24.5K | 2 May 2027 | Yes1.9¢No98¢ |
| Zdravko Ponoš | 1% | — | +0.9 | $0 | $23.0K | 2 May 2027 | Yes1¢No99¢ |
| Miloš Jovanović | <1% | 0 | −1.4 | $0 | $24.0K | 2 May 2027 | Yes0.9¢No99¢ |
9 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 30 | 93% | −2.9 | 0 | $0 | $2.4K | 1 Dec 2026 | Yes93¢No6.9¢ |
| October 31 | 37% | −1.5 | −18 | $7 | $512 | 1 Nov 2026 | Yes37¢No64¢ |
| October 15 | 7.5% | — | −3.0 | $251 | $11.8K | 16 Oct 2026 | Yes7.5¢No93¢ |
Change in probability points since the same time the previous week
Prices are read from Polymarket's public markets and trades and describe what traders pay, not a forecast or recommendation by Vultax.
