Brazil Election 2026 prediction markets

This room reads every open Polymarket market on the 2026 Brazilian general election and sorts it into the presidency, the first round, the runoff and the rest of the ballot. The winner market is priced beside the same question on Kalshi, and each price carries the 24-hour volume and resting liquidity behind it.

A price is the cost of a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens, so 62¢ reads as a 62% chance. In a market with many named outcomes the prices should add up to roughly 100%; a gap is the venue's spread and fees, not a free lunch.

Brazil elects its president in two rounds. A candidate who takes more than half of the valid votes in the first round wins outright; otherwise the top two meet in a runoff three weeks later. That is why a first-round placing market, a runoff market and the winner market can all move on the same poll by different amounts: they are different contracts on the same race.

The order-book table shows what a $1,000 and a $10,000 order would pay on average against the offers resting on the book. On a contract this heavily traded the difference is usually small; on the first-round side markets it is not, and the quoted price is only good for the first few hundred dollars.

Each market resolves on its own written rules, including the deadline, the resolution source and what counts as the event. Two markets on the same subject with different wording can and do trade at different prices, so read the rules on the market page before comparing them.