US recession by end of 2026?: Down 7.0 points in a week, 5.3× a normal week for this contract. Volume is 2.1× a normal day, so money came with it.
Down 7.0 points in a week, 5.3× a normal week for this contract. Volume is 2.1× a normal day, so money came with it.
Trade US Economy on paper, free
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Each line is the price of one outcome on Polymarket, read as a probability. Hover or tap to read every line on the same day.
| Outcome | 30 days ago | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 7.5% | 8.5% |
Every box is one Polymarket event in this room. The bigger the box, the more was traded in the last 24 hours.
The order book behind “US recession by end of 2026?”, read a minute ago.
| Outcome | Bid / ask | Within 2¢ | $1K pays | $10K pays |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession by end of 2026? | 8¢/9¢ | $1.1K · $1.1K | 10¢+1.4 |
Average price a buy order of that size would pay against the offers resting now, and how many points that is above the best offer. “Within 2¢” is the dollars resting near the touch on the bid and the offer side.
Vultax Research: how much size prediction market order books hold
Biggest holders in this market's two leading outcomes, valued at the current price. Open a name for the wallet's record on Vultax.
7 more positions in this market
Who holds the most on each side, valued at the current price, with each wallet's record one click away.
Vultax Research: how Polymarket trader leaderboards compare
Prints of $1,000 and more in the room's busiest markets, newest first.
9 more large trades in this room
Each print of $1,000 and more as it happens: who, which side, what price.
Every move in this room that cleared Vi IQ's "notable" line, stamped when it happened. Vultax has recorded this room since 22 Sep 2026.
1 earlier move on record
The dated record of every meaningful move in this room: what moved, by how much against its own normal, and whether money came with it.
On Polymarket, “US recession by end of 2026?” trades at 8.5%, on $34.8K traded across that market in the last 24 hours. This room reads 131 open markets across 19 Polymarket events, which together traded $66.1K over the same 24 hours and hold $329K of resting liquidity. Prices as of 23 Sep 2026, 06:48 UTC.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland updates a nowcast of the month-over-month change in CPI every business day, from daily oil and gasoline prices and the latest monthly data. Polymarket's monthly CPI market settles on the BLS print to one decimal, so the nowcast rounded the same way names a bracket.
| Month | Final nowcast | Bracket | |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 2026 | +0.4% | +0.4% | same |
| July 2026 | +0.1% | +0.1% | same |
| June 2026 | -0.1% | -0.4% | missed |
| May 2026 | +0.5% | +0.5% | same |
| April 2026 | +0.4% | +0.6% | missed |
| March 2026 | +0.8% | +0.9% | missed |
| February 2026 | +0.2% | +0.3% | missed |
| January 2026 | +0.1% | +0.2% | missed |
| December 2025 | +0.2% | +0.3% | missed |
| November 2025 | +0.3% | 0.0% | missed |
| September 2025 | +0.4% | +0.3% | missed |
| August 2025 | +0.3% | +0.4% | missed |
Prints are the month-over-month change in seasonally adjusted CPI-U, rounded to one decimal the way the BLS publishes it. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Inflation Nowcasting, read 23 Sep 2026. A nowcast is a model's reading, not a forecast by Vultax.
Two negative quarters, an NBER call, and each quarter's GDP print
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession by end of 2026? | 8.5% | +2.0 | −7.0 | $34.8K | $46.0K | 31 Jan 2027 | Yes8.5¢No92¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥3.0% | 74% | −5.0 | +28 | $317 | $1.2K | 30 Oct 2026 | Yes74¢No27¢ |
| 2.5–3.0% | 13% | +2.5 | +0.5 | $184 | $1.1K | 30 Oct 2026 | Yes13¢No87¢ |
| 2.0–2.5% | 11% | +3.5 | −10 | $0 | $1.4K | 30 Oct 2026 | Yes11¢No90¢ |
| 1.5–2.0% | 3.1% | 0 | −5.3 | $0 | $1.1K | 30 Oct 2026 | Yes3.1¢No97¢ |
| <0.5% | 2.6% | 0 | — | $0 | $1.4K | 30 Oct 2026 | Yes2.6¢No97¢ |
| 0.5–1.0% | <1% | — | −3.0 | $0 | $839 | 30 Oct 2026 | Yes0.8¢No99¢ |
| 1.0–1.5% | <1% | — | −4.3 | $0 | $1.3K | 30 Oct 2026 | Yes0.6¢No99¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0–2.5% | 64% | — | +8.0 | $19 | $1.2K | 29 Jan 2027 | Yes64¢No37¢ |
| >2.5% | 29% | +0.8 | +12 | $5 | $1.1K | 29 Jan 2027 | Yes29¢No71¢ |
| 1.5–2.0% | 9.3% | 0 | −8.5 | $8 | $1.3K | 29 Jan 2027 | Yes9.3¢No91¢ |
| 1.0–1.5% | <1% | 0 | −5.0 | $5 | $1.1K | 29 Jan 2027 | Yes0.8¢No99¢ |
| 0.5–1.0% | <1% | −0.5 | 0 | $5 | $981 | 29 Jan 2027 | Yes0.5¢No99¢ |
| <0.5% | <1% | −0.9 | −2.2 | $6 | $1.1K | 29 Jan 2027 | Yes0.3¢No100¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Negative GDP growth in 2026? | 2.1% | — | — | $0 | $388 | 29 Jan 2027 | Yes2.1¢No98¢ |
The one-month change in seasonally adjusted CPI-U, as the BLS first publishes it
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.6% | 38% | −2.5 | +14 | $487 | $1.9K | 15 Oct 2026 | Yes38¢No63¢ |
| 0.5% | 37% | +5.0 | −1.0 | $677 | $2.3K | 15 Oct 2026 | Yes37¢No64¢ |
| 0.7% | 16% | −1.0 | +4.0 | $483 | $1.8K | 15 Oct 2026 | Yes16¢No85¢ |
| 0.4% | 6.5% | −1.0 | −18 | $10 | $2.3K | 15 Oct 2026 | Yes6.5¢No94¢ |
| 0.3% | 3.7% | 0 | 0 | $10 | $1.6K | 15 Oct 2026 | Yes3.7¢No96¢ |
| ≥0.8% | 2.6% | 0 | −5.3 | $66 | $1.9K | 15 Oct 2026 | Yes2.6¢No97¢ |
| ≤0.0% | <1% | 0 | −0.9 | $10 | $1.3K | 15 Oct 2026 | Yes0.5¢No100¢ |
| 0.2% | <1% | — | −2.5 | $10 | $1.3K | 15 Oct 2026 | Yes0.5¢No100¢ |
| 0.1% | <1% | 0 | −1.1 | $10 | $1.4K | 15 Oct 2026 | Yes0.4¢No100¢ |
Year-on-year CPI, core CPI and PCE, as the BLS and BEA report them
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.6% | 46% | +0.5 | +5.5 | $1.1K | $6.3K | 15 Oct 2026 | Yes46¢No54¢ |
| 3.7% | 28% | +2.0 | +11 | $3.0K | $5.7K | 15 Oct 2026 | Yes28¢No73¢ |
| 3.5% | 20% | — | −13 | $1.0K | $5.9K | 15 Oct 2026 | Yes20¢No81¢ |
| 3.4% | 5.1% | 0 | −3.9 | $753 | $5.1K | 15 Oct 2026 | Yes5.1¢No95¢ |
| 3.8% | 3.5% | −2.1 | 0 | $1.1K | $5.9K | 15 Oct 2026 | Yes3.5¢No97¢ |
| 3.9% | 3% | +2.3 | 0 | $889 | $4.0K | 15 Oct 2026 | Yes3¢No97¢ |
| 3.3% | 1.6% | +1.3 | 0 | $716 | $3.5K | 15 Oct 2026 | Yes1.6¢No98¢ |
| ≥4.0% | <1% | −0.7 | −2.1 | $476 | $4.1K | 15 Oct 2026 | Yes0.5¢No99¢ |
| 3.0% | <1% | 0 | −1.8 | $361 | $4.4K | 15 Oct 2026 | Yes0.4¢No100¢ |
3 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.4% | 40% | +6.5 | +18 | $1.0K | $773 | 30 Sep 2026 | Yes40¢No61¢ |
| 3.2% | 28% | −2.0 | +0.5 | $1.5K | $1.9K | 30 Sep 2026 | Yes28¢No73¢ |
| 3.3% | 24% | +4.5 | −9.5 | $511 | $1.1K | 30 Sep 2026 | Yes24¢No77¢ |
| 3.1% | 12% | −4.5 | +3.0 | $691 | $3.3K | 30 Sep 2026 | Yes12¢No88¢ |
| ≤3.0% | 4.1% | −1.9 | 0 | $126 | $910 | 30 Sep 2026 | Yes4.1¢No96¢ |
| 3.5% | <1% | 0 | −10 | $400 | $1.0K | 30 Sep 2026 | Yes0.5¢No99¢ |
| 3.6%+ | <1% | — | −2.9 | $0 | $1.4K | 30 Sep 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.2% | 48% | −2.0 | −6.0 | $187 | $1.1K | 15 Oct 2026 | Yes48¢No53¢ |
| 0.3% | 35% | −6.0 | +13 | $247 | $1.2K | 15 Oct 2026 | Yes35¢No66¢ |
| 0.1% | 12% | +0.5 | +3.0 | $22 | $861 | 15 Oct 2026 | Yes12¢No89¢ |
| 0.4% | 5.3% | +1.4 | −2.3 | $6 | $730 | 15 Oct 2026 | Yes5.3¢No95¢ |
| 0.6%+ | <1% | — | −4.4 | $6 | $696 | 15 Oct 2026 | Yes0.5¢No100¢ |
| 0.5% | <1% | 0 | −0.9 | $6 | $758 | 15 Oct 2026 | Yes0.3¢No100¢ |
| ≤0.0% | <1% | — | −5.0 | $0 | $895 | 15 Oct 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.4% | 45% | +1.5 | −0.5 | $109 | $931 | 15 Oct 2026 | Yes45¢No55¢ |
| 2.5% | 33% | +1.0 | +11 | $47 | $790 | 15 Oct 2026 | Yes33¢No67¢ |
| 2.3% | 17% | −0.5 | −3.0 | $85 | $668 | 15 Oct 2026 | Yes17¢No84¢ |
| 2.6% | 10% | −1.0 | −1.0 | $77 | $607 | 15 Oct 2026 | Yes10¢No90¢ |
| 2.7% | <1% | — | −5.1 | $42 | $839 | 15 Oct 2026 | Yes0.4¢No100¢ |
| ≥2.9% | <1% | — | −3.0 | $42 | $1.1K | 15 Oct 2026 | Yes0.4¢No100¢ |
| 2.8% | <1% | — | −5.0 | $21 | $855 | 15 Oct 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| ≤2.0% | <1% | — | −2.5 | $0 | $888 | 15 Oct 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
| 2.1% | <1% | — | −2.1 | $0 | $844 | 15 Oct 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
1 further priced outcome in this market are not shown.
2 further markets matched this board and are not shown.
Nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate on the first Friday of the month
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.1% | 39% | −1.0 | +5.5 | $1.1K | $2.4K | 2 Oct 2026 | Yes39¢No61¢ |
| 4.2% | 33% | −4.0 | +1.0 | $1.2K | $2.6K | 2 Oct 2026 | Yes33¢No68¢ |
| 4.0% | 20% | +2.0 | +2.0 | $411 | $2.7K | 2 Oct 2026 | Yes20¢No81¢ |
| 4.3% | 9% | +2.5 | −2.0 | $270 | $2.9K | 2 Oct 2026 | Yes9¢No91¢ |
| 3.9% | 4.5% | +1.1 | −1.1 | $203 | $3.0K | 2 Oct 2026 | Yes4.5¢No96¢ |
| ≤3.8% | 2.6% | +1.2 | −2.4 | $322 | $2.8K | 2 Oct 2026 | Yes2.6¢No97¢ |
| 4.4% | <1% | 0 | −4.1 | $419 | $3.3K | 2 Oct 2026 | Yes0.5¢No99¢ |
| 4.5% | <1% | 0 | −2.3 | $152 | $4.1K | 2 Oct 2026 | Yes0.4¢No100¢ |
| ≥4.6% | <1% | — | −2.7 | $111 | $3.2K | 2 Oct 2026 | Yes0.3¢No100¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100k to 150k | 32% | +3.0 | +9.0 | $155 | $2.1K | 3 Oct 2026 | Yes32¢No69¢ |
| 50k to 100k | 32% | −6.5 | +3.0 | $151 | $2.1K | 3 Oct 2026 | Yes32¢No69¢ |
| 0 to 50k | 14% | — | −11 | $15 | $3.0K | 3 Oct 2026 | Yes14¢No87¢ |
| 150k to 200k | 12% | +0.8 | +1.8 | $0 | $3.3K | 3 Oct 2026 | Yes12¢No88¢ |
| <-50k | 6.5% | −0.5 | −2.5 | $0 | $2.6K | 3 Oct 2026 | Yes6.5¢No94¢ |
| -50k to 0 | 6.5% | — | — | $0 | $2.6K | 3 Oct 2026 | Yes6.5¢No94¢ |
| 200k+ | 4.9% | 0 | −1.7 | $0 | $3.0K | 3 Oct 2026 | Yes4.9¢No95¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 5.1% | 0 | −4.6 | $0 | $4.0K | 1 Feb 2027 | Yes5.1¢No95¢ |
| 5.5% | 4.3% | 0 | −2.5 | $10 | $2.9K | 1 Feb 2027 | Yes4.3¢No96¢ |
| 7.0% | 4.0% | 0 | −0.8 | $0 | $2.5K | 1 Feb 2027 | Yes4.0¢No96¢ |
| 10.0% | 3.6% | — | 0 | $0 | $435 | 1 Feb 2027 | Yes3.6¢No96¢ |
| 6.0% | 2.5% | 0 | −4.0 | $10 | $3.2K | 1 Feb 2027 | Yes2.5¢No97¢ |
Other open markets on the US economy
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overheating | 67% | −11 | −12 | $832 | $1.1K | 1 Feb 2027 | Yes67¢No34¢ |
| Soft Landing | 33% | +14 | +13 | $2.0K | $835 | 1 Feb 2027 | Yes33¢No68¢ |
| Slack | 1.7% | +1.4 | +1.4 | $1.9K | $1.0K | 1 Feb 2027 | Yes1.7¢No98¢ |
| Stagflation | <1% | 0 | 0 | $46 | $1.2K | 1 Feb 2027 | Yes0.2¢No100¢ |
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <$419K | 62% | −1.7 | +24 | $241 | $1.2K | 11 Oct 2026 | Yes62¢No38¢ |
| $419K - $426K | 38% | +7.3 | −20 | $2.3K | $796 | 11 Oct 2026 | Yes38¢No62¢ |
| $426K - $433K | <1% | 0 | −5.5 | $189 | $3.2K | 11 Oct 2026 | Yes0.8¢No99¢ |
| $433K - $440K | <1% | 0 | −0.7 | $191 | $2.7K | 11 Oct 2026 | Yes0.6¢No99¢ |
| $440K - $447K | <1% | — | 0 | $10 | $3.0K | 11 Oct 2026 | Yes0.2¢No100¢ |
| $454K+ | <1% | 0 | — | $25 | $1.4K | 11 Oct 2026 | Yes0.1¢No100¢ |
1 further priced outcome in this market are not shown.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 7d | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes | Paper trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rigetti | >99% | — | 0 | $0 | $200 | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes99¢No0.6¢ |
| D-Wave | 96% | 0 | 0 | $0 | $374 | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes96¢No3.6¢ |
| GlobalFoundries | 93% | −5.3 | −3.2 | $0 | $1.5K | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes93¢No7.3¢ |
| Unusual Machines | 48% | +0.5 | +6.0 | $0 | $141 | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes48¢No53¢ |
| Anduril | 20% | +1.5 | +2.0 | $16 | $237 | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes20¢No80¢ |
| Lockheed Martin | 16% | +2.5 | −8.5 | $0 | $242 | 1 Jan 2027 | Yes16¢No84¢ |
14 further priced outcomes in this market are not shown.
2 further markets matched this board and are not shown.
Largest price changes in points, counted only on markets that traded at least $1,000 in the same 24 hours. The number beside each move is that market’s 24-hour volume.
Change in probability points since the same time the previous day
Change in probability points since the same time the previous week
The most recently settled Polymarket markets on this subject, with the outcome that paid and the total traded over the market’s life. A settled market is the only place a prediction market can be checked against what happened.
| Market | Resolved as | Total volume | Settled |
|---|---|---|---|
| August Inflation US - Monthly | 0.4% | $76.8K | 11 Sep 2026 |
| August Inflation US - Annual | 3.4% | $156K | 11 Sep 2026 |
| August Unemployment Rate | 4.1% | $45.8K | 4 Sep 2026 |
| How many jobs added in August? | 150k+ | $75.6K | 4 Sep 2026 |
| July Inflation US - Annual | 3.4% | $649K | 12 Aug 2026 |
| July Inflation US - Monthly | ≥0.1% | $305K | 12 Aug 2026 |
| July Unemployment Rate | 4.1% | $49.1K | 7 Aug 2026 |
| How many jobs added in July? | <0 | $38.2K | 7 Aug 2026 |
| US Trade Deficit - June 2026 | 70-80B | $15.3K | 4 Aug 2026 |
| US GDP growth in Q2 2026? | 1.5–2.0% | $26.2K | 30 Jul 2026 |
This room reads Polymarket's markets on the US economy and sorts them by the release that settles them: recession and GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the NBER, inflation from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' consumer price index, and payrolls and unemployment from the BLS employment report.
The data markets are brackets. The monthly CPI market asks for the one-month change in seasonally adjusted CPI-U to one decimal place, so each bracket is a tenth of a percentage point. The payrolls market brackets the change in nonfarm employment; the unemployment market brackets the U-3 rate. Each settles on the release its rules name, as first published.
The recession market resolves Yes on two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth in the BEA's seasonally adjusted annualised estimates, advance estimates included, or on an NBER announcement that a recession has occurred, made before the deadline in its rules.
A price is the cost of a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens, so 62¢ reads as a 62% chance. In a market with many named outcomes the prices should add up to roughly 100%; a gap is the venue's spread and fees, not a free lunch.
Each market resolves on its own written rules, including the deadline, the resolution source and what counts as the event. Two markets on the same subject with different wording can and do trade at different prices, so read the rules on the market page before comparing them.
