US Economy prediction markets

This room reads Polymarket's markets on the US economy and sorts them by the release that settles them: recession and GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the NBER, inflation from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' consumer price index, and payrolls and unemployment from the BLS employment report.

The data markets are brackets. The monthly CPI market asks for the one-month change in seasonally adjusted CPI-U to one decimal place, so each bracket is a tenth of a percentage point. The payrolls market brackets the change in nonfarm employment; the unemployment market brackets the U-3 rate. Each settles on the release its rules name, as first published.

The recession market resolves Yes on two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth in the BEA's seasonally adjusted annualised estimates, advance estimates included, or on an NBER announcement that a recession has occurred, made before the deadline in its rules.

A price is the cost of a contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens, so 62¢ reads as a 62% chance. In a market with many named outcomes the prices should add up to roughly 100%; a gap is the venue's spread and fees, not a free lunch.

Each market resolves on its own written rules, including the deadline, the resolution source and what counts as the event. Two markets on the same subject with different wording can and do trade at different prices, so read the rules on the market page before comparing them.