Analytics
Will US GDP growth in Q4 2026 be between 3.5% and 4.0%?
economyActive
Closes Jan 29, 2027 UTC
Yes
17.9%
No
82.1%
Yes costs 17.9¢No costs 82.1¢
24h Volume
$364
Total volume
$3.6K
Liquidity
$2.8K
Closes
Jan 29, 2027 UTC
Topic roomUS Economy
Where it stands
Yes is at 17.9%, down 3.6 points from 21.5% when the market opened on 30 Oct 2026.
Across the 16 daily closes on record from 30 Oct 2026 to 14 Nov 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 22% on 3 Nov 2026 and the lowest 1.1% on 11 Nov 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 6.5%. Its largest one-day move was 10 points down, to 12% on 4 Nov 2026.
3.5% to 4.0% is the favourite of the 7 outcomes in “US GDP growth in Q4 2026?”, ahead of 2.0% to 2.5% at 17.5%.
Across the latest 175 trades, $297.59 bought Yes and $1.08K bought No.
Ten wallets hold 85.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 29 Jan 2027, 76 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Nov 14, 10:10 PM UTC
Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 16 points, 30 Oct 2026 – 14 Nov 2026, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Oct 2026 | 21.5% |
| 14 Nov 2026 | 18.4% |
All outcomes
US GDP growth in Q4 2026?
- 13.5% to 4.0%This market$3.6K traded17.9%
- 22.0% to 2.5%$3.75K traded17.5%
- 3≥4.0%
Largest holders
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Rapid-Alphabet-Winner | No | 1.9K |
| Swift Meteor 30F2 | Yes | 270 |
| cigarettes | Yes | 210.72 |
Rules
What settles this market
Polymarket settles this market on the source its rules name. Sources named in the rules: bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product. Trading closes on 29 Jan 2027.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2026
Dates
Topic room
Read this market in context
What to watch in US Economy
- Each release in turn: the jobs report on the first Friday of the month, CPI a week or two later, GDP a month after each quarter ends
- Energy and shelter prices, the two parts of CPI that move the monthly print most
- Weekly jobless claims between reports