Analytics
Will US GDP growth in Q4 2026 be greater than 4.0%?
economyActive
Closes Jan 29, 2027 UTC
Yes
17.0%
No
83.0%
Yes costs 17¢No costs 83¢
24h Volume
$359
Total volume
$4.5K
Liquidity
$4.2K
Closes
Jan 29, 2027 UTC
Topic roomUS Economy
Where it stands
Yes is at 17%, up 2 points from 15% when the market opened on 30 Oct 2026.
Across the 17 daily closes on record from 30 Oct 2026 to 14 Nov 2026, the highest close was 24% on 31 Oct 2026 and the lowest 11% on 4 Nov 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 14.5%. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 11% on 4 Nov 2026.
≥4.0% ranks third of the 7 outcomes in “US GDP growth in Q4 2026?”. 3.5% to 4.0% leads at 17.9%; 2.0% to 2.5% is at 17.5%.
Across the latest 207 trades, $413.52 bought Yes and $1.06K bought No.
Ten wallets hold 86.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 29 Jan 2027, 76 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Nov 14, 10:09 PM UTC
Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 17 points, 30 Oct 2026 – 14 Nov 2026, chart shows 5%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Oct 2026 | 15.0% |
| 14 Nov 2026 | 17.0% |
All outcomes
US GDP growth in Q4 2026?
- 13.5% to 4.0%$3.6K traded17.9%
- 22.0% to 2.5%$3.75K traded17.5%
- 3≥4.0%This market
Largest holders
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Rapid-Alphabet-Winner | No | 1.9K |
| Great-Godfather | Yes | 414.56 |
| cigarettes | Yes | 270.72 |
Rules
What settles this market
Polymarket settles this market on the source its rules name. Sources named in the rules: bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product. Trading closes on 29 Jan 2027.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2026
Dates
Topic room
Read this market in context
What to watch in US Economy
- Each release in turn: the jobs report on the first Friday of the month, CPI a week or two later, GDP a month after each quarter ends
- Energy and shelter prices, the two parts of CPI that move the monthly print most
- Weekly jobless claims between reports