Analytics
Will US GDP growth in Q4 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?
economyActive
Closes Jan 29, 2027 UTC
Yes
13.0%
No
87.0%
Yes costs 13¢No costs 87¢
24h Volume
$909
Total volume
$5.2K
Liquidity
$2.8K
Closes
Jan 29, 2027 UTC
Topic roomUS Economy
Where it stands
Yes is at 13%, down 9.5 points from 22.5% when the market opened on 30 Oct 2026.
Across the 17 daily closes on record from 30 Oct 2026 to 14 Nov 2026, the highest close was 22.5% on 30 Oct 2026 and the lowest 9.5% on 5 Nov 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 10.5%. Its largest one-day move was 7.5 points down, to 14% on 4 Nov 2026.
2.5% to 3.0% ranks fourth of the 7 outcomes in “US GDP growth in Q4 2026?”. 3.5% to 4.0% leads at 17.9%; 2.0% to 2.5% is at 17.5%.
Across the latest 194 trades, $283.86 bought Yes and $1.92K bought No.
Ten wallets hold 85.4% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 29 Jan 2027, 76 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Nov 14, 10:09 PM UTC
Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 17 points, 30 Oct 2026 – 14 Nov 2026, chart shows 5%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Oct 2026 | 22.5% |
| 14 Nov 2026 | 13.0% |
All outcomes
US GDP growth in Q4 2026?
Largest holders
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Rapid-Alphabet-Winner | No | 1.9K |
| cigarettes | Yes | 279.32 |
| Swift Meteor 30F2 | Yes | 270 |
Rules
What settles this market
Polymarket settles this market on the source its rules name. Sources named in the rules: bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product. Trading closes on 29 Jan 2027.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-gdp-growth-in-q4-2026
Dates
Topic room
Read this market in context
What to watch in US Economy
- Each release in turn: the jobs report on the first Friday of the month, CPI a week or two later, GDP a month after each quarter ends
- Energy and shelter prices, the two parts of CPI that move the monthly print most
- Weekly jobless claims between reports