Analytics
Will the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026?
economyActive
Closes Feb 1, 2027 UTC
Yes
71.0%
No
28.9%
Yes costs 71.05¢No costs 28.95¢
24h Volume
$35
Total volume
$55.0K
Liquidity
$3.7K
Closes
Feb 1, 2027 UTC
Topic roomUS Economy
Where it stands
Yes is at 71%, up 33 points from 38% when the market opened on 25 Apr 2026.
Across the 197 daily closes on record from 25 Apr 2026 to 14 Nov 2026 (8 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 96.1% on 5 Nov 2026 and the lowest 18.5% on 27 Apr 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 82%; a month before, 73.5%. Its largest one-day move was 21 points up, to 45% on 29 Apr 2026.
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%) is the favourite of the 4 outcomes in “US economic state at the end of 2026?”, ahead of Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) at 28.8%.
Across the latest 500 trades, $10.23K bought Yes and $1.54K bought No; the largest was a $3K buy of Yes at 95.8¢.
Ten wallets hold 87.1% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Feb 2027, 79 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Nov 14, 10:09 PM UTC
Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 197 points, 25 Apr 2026 – 14 Nov 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2026 | 38.0% |
| 14 Nov 2026 | 71.0% |
All outcomes
US economic state at the end of 2026?
- 1Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)This market$54.97K traded71.0%
- 2Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)$65.7K traded28.8%
- 3Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)
Largest holders
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Rapid-Alphabet-Winner | No | 8.08K |
| Reckless-Estrogen-Competence | Yes | 3.61K |
| Underdarkus | Yes | 3.36K |
Rules
What settles this market
Polymarket settles this market on its written rules. Trading closes on 1 Feb 2027.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-economic-state-at-the-end-of-2026
Dates
Topic room
Read this market in context
What to watch in US Economy
- Each release in turn: the jobs report on the first Friday of the month, CPI a week or two later, GDP a month after each quarter ends
- Energy and shelter prices, the two parts of CPI that move the monthly print most
- Weekly jobless claims between reports