Analytics
Will the median home value in the US be between $407,000 and $411,000 on December 31?
economyActive
Closes Jan 11, 2027 UTC
Yes
34.5%
No
65.5%
Yes costs 34.5¢No costs 65.5¢
24h Volume
$20.2K
Total volume
$20.2K
Liquidity
$3.1K
Closes
Jan 11, 2027 UTC
Topic roomUS Economy
Where it stands
Yes is at 34.5%, up 9 points from 25.5% when the market opened on 2 Oct 2026.
Across the 41 daily closes on record from 2 Oct 2026 to 14 Nov 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 54.5% on 20 Oct 2026 and the lowest 19% on 4 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 36%; a month before, 30.5%. Its largest one-day move was 22 points up, to 42% on 4 Nov 2026.
$407K - $411K is the favourite of the 7 outcomes in “What will the median home value in the US be on December 31?”, ahead of $403K - $407K at 31.5%.
Across the latest 389 trades, $2.37K bought Yes and $2.98K bought No.
Ten wallets hold 86.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 11 Jan 2027, 58 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Nov 14, 10:09 PM UTC
Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 41 points, 2 Oct 2026 – 14 Nov 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | 25.5% |
| 14 Nov 2026 | 34.5% |
All outcomes
What will the median home value in the US be on December 31?
- 1$407K - $411KThis market$20.23K traded34.5%
- 2$403K - $407K$20.08K traded31.5%
- 3
Largest holders
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Rapid-Alphabet-Winner | No | 1.42K |
| YoungAlphaGoat | Yes | 1.07K |
| molodoyy | Yes | 626.36 |
Rules
What settles this market
Polymarket settles this market on the source its rules name. Sources named in the rules: app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/57. Trading closes on 11 Jan 2027.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-median-home-value-in-the-us-be-on-december-31
Dates
Topic room
Read this market in context
What to watch in US Economy
- Each release in turn: the jobs report on the first Friday of the month, CPI a week or two later, GDP a month after each quarter ends
- Energy and shelter prices, the two parts of CPI that move the monthly print most
- Weekly jobless claims between reports