Analytics
Will the November 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?
economyActive
Closes Dec 4, 2026 UTC
Yes
30.0%
No
70.0%
Yes costs 30¢No costs 70¢
24h Volume
$97
Total volume
$1.1K
Liquidity
$4.8K
Closes
Dec 4, 2026 UTC
Topic roomUS Economy
Where it stands
Yes is at 30%, down 3 points from 33% when the market opened on 11 Nov 2026.
Across the 5 daily closes on record from 11 Nov 2026 to 14 Nov 2026, the highest close was 38% on 13 Nov 2026 and the lowest 30% on 14 Nov 2026. Its largest one-day move was 5.5 points down, to 32.5% on 14 Nov 2026.
4.2% ranks second of the 9 outcomes in “November Unemployment Rate”. 4.1% leads at 32.5%; 4.0% is at 17.5%.
Across the latest 67 trades, $104.4 bought Yes and $415.53 bought No.
Ten wallets hold 94.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 4 Dec 2026, 20 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Nov 14, 10:09 PM UTC
Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 11 Nov 2026 – 14 Nov 2026, chart shows 25%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Nov 2026 | 33.0% |
| 14 Nov 2026 | 30.0% |
All outcomes
November Unemployment Rate
- 14.1%$3.09K traded32.5%
- 24.2%This market$1.07K traded30.0%
- 34.0%
Largest holders
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Rapid-Alphabet-Winner | No | 523.88 |
| podairpod | Yes | 304.91 |
| grinder1011 | Yes | 57.52 |
Rules
What settles this market
Polymarket settles this market on the source its rules name. Sources named in the rules: bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm. Trading closes on 4 Dec 2026.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/november-unemployment-rate-2026
Dates
Topic room
Read this market in context
What to watch in US Economy
- Each release in turn: the jobs report on the first Friday of the month, CPI a week or two later, GDP a month after each quarter ends
- Energy and shelter prices, the two parts of CPI that move the monthly print most
- Weekly jobless claims between reports