Analytics
Will the November 2026 unemployment rate be 4.0%?
economyActive
Closes Dec 4, 2026 UTC
Yes
17.5%
No
82.5%
Yes costs 17.5¢No costs 82.5¢
24h Volume
$873
Total volume
$873
Liquidity
$5.2K
Closes
Dec 4, 2026 UTC
Topic roomUS Economy
Where it stands
Yes is at 17.5%, down 4.5 points from 22% when the market opened on 11 Nov 2026.
Across the 5 daily closes on record from 11 Nov 2026 to 14 Nov 2026, the highest close was 22% on 11 Nov 2026 and the lowest 17.5% on 12 Nov 2026.
4.0% ranks third of the 9 outcomes in “November Unemployment Rate”. 4.1% leads at 32.5%; 4.2% is at 30%.
The best bid and the best ask are 3.0% apart, so read the price as a range. Across the latest 42 trades, $77.14 bought Yes and $388.4 bought No.
Trading closes on 4 Dec 2026, 20 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Nov 14, 10:09 PM UTC
Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 11 Nov 2026 – 14 Nov 2026, chart shows 14%–26%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Nov 2026 | 22.0% |
| 14 Nov 2026 | 17.5% |
All outcomes
November Unemployment Rate
- 14.1%$3.09K traded32.5%
- 24.2%$1.07K traded30.0%
- 34.0%This market
Largest holders
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Rapid-Alphabet-Winner | No | 523.88 |
| podairpod | Yes | 401.49 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 117.01 |
Rules
What settles this market
Polymarket settles this market on the source its rules name. Sources named in the rules: bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm. Trading closes on 4 Dec 2026.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/november-unemployment-rate-2026
Dates
Topic room
Read this market in context
What to watch in US Economy
- Each release in turn: the jobs report on the first Friday of the month, CPI a week or two later, GDP a month after each quarter ends
- Energy and shelter prices, the two parts of CPI that move the monthly print most
- Weekly jobless claims between reports