Analytics
Will the November 2026 unemployment rate be ≤3.8%?
economyActive
Closes Dec 4, 2026 UTC
Yes
1.1%
No
98.9%
Yes costs 1.1¢No costs 98.9¢
24h Volume
$353
Total volume
$353
Liquidity
$6.9K
Closes
Dec 4, 2026 UTC
Topic roomUS Economy
Where it stands
Yes is at 1.1%, about where the market opened on 11 Nov 2026.
Across the 5 daily closes on record from 11 Nov 2026 to 14 Nov 2026, the price held at 1.1%.
≤3.8% ranks sixth of the 9 outcomes in “November Unemployment Rate”. 4.1% leads at 32.5%; 4.2% is at 30%.
Trading closes on 4 Dec 2026, 20 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Nov 14, 10:09 PM UTC
Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 11 Nov 2026 – 14 Nov 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Nov 2026 | 1.1% |
| 14 Nov 2026 | 1.1% |
All outcomes
November Unemployment Rate
Largest holders
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Rapid-Alphabet-Winner | No | 523.88 |
| sanduspace | Yes | 299.98 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 109.3 |
Rules
What settles this market
Polymarket settles this market on the source its rules name. Sources named in the rules: bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm. Trading closes on 4 Dec 2026.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/november-unemployment-rate-2026
Dates
Topic room
Read this market in context
What to watch in US Economy
- Each release in turn: the jobs report on the first Friday of the month, CPI a week or two later, GDP a month after each quarter ends
- Energy and shelter prices, the two parts of CPI that move the monthly print most
- Weekly jobless claims between reports