Analytics
Will US births in 2026 be between 3.53 million and 3.56 million?
economyActive
Closes May 1, 2027 UTC
Yes
37.5%
No
62.5%
Yes costs 37.5¢No costs 62.5¢
24h Volume
$4.3K
Total volume
$4.3K
Liquidity
$18.0K
Closes
May 1, 2027 UTC
Topic roomUS Economy
Where it stands
Yes is at 37.5%, up 9 points from 28.5% when the market opened on 30 Oct 2026.
Across the 17 daily closes on record from 30 Oct 2026 to 14 Nov 2026, the highest close was 41.5% on 3 Nov 2026 and the lowest 21.5% on 31 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 36.5%. Its largest one-day move was 13 points up, to 35% on 1 Nov 2026.
3.53M–3.56M ranks second of the 7 outcomes in “How many US births in 2026?”. 3.56M–3.59M leads at 41%; 3.65M+ is at 8%.
Across the latest 97 trades, $732.5 bought Yes and $495 bought No.
Ten wallets hold 92.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 May 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Nov 14, 10:09 PM UTC
Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 17 points, 30 Oct 2026 – 14 Nov 2026, chart shows 10%–50%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Oct 2026 | 28.5% |
| 14 Nov 2026 | 37.5% |
All outcomes
How many US births in 2026?
- 13.56M–3.59M$13.64K traded41.0%
- 23.53M–3.56MThis market$4.29K traded37.5%
- 33.65M+
Largest holders
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Rapid-Alphabet-Winner | No | 879.44 |
| molodoyy | Yes | 810 |
| Wan-Cameo-Asymmetry | No | 150 |
Rules
What settles this market
Polymarket settles this market on the source its rules name. Sources named in the rules: cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr043.pdf, cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/births.htm. Trading closes on 1 May 2027.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-us-births-in-2026-20261026033533965
Dates
Topic room
Read this market in context
What to watch in US Economy
- Each release in turn: the jobs report on the first Friday of the month, CPI a week or two later, GDP a month after each quarter ends
- Energy and shelter prices, the two parts of CPI that move the monthly print most
- Weekly jobless claims between reports