Analytics
Will US births in 2026 be less than 3.50 million?
economyActive
Closes May 1, 2027 UTC
Yes
1.1%
No
98.9%
Yes costs 1.1¢No costs 98.9¢
24h Volume
$828
Total volume
$828
Liquidity
$3.2K
Closes
May 1, 2027 UTC
Topic roomUS Economy
Where it stands
Yes is at 1.1%, down 2.9 points from 4% when the market opened on 30 Oct 2026.
Across the 15 daily closes on record from 30 Oct 2026 to 14 Nov 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 4% on 30 Oct 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 7 Nov 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 0.1%.
<3.50M ranks seventh of the 7 outcomes in “How many US births in 2026?”. 3.56M–3.59M leads at 41%; 3.53M–3.56M is at 37.5%.
Across the latest 30 trades, $2.48 bought Yes and $546.95 bought No.
Ten wallets hold 93.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 May 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Nov 14, 10:25 PM UTC
Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 15 points, 30 Oct 2026 – 14 Nov 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Oct 2026 | 4.0% |
| 14 Nov 2026 | 1.1% |
All outcomes
How many US births in 2026?
Largest holders
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Rapid-Alphabet-Winner | No | 879.44 |
| molodoyy | Yes | 178.56 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 105 |
Rules
What settles this market
Polymarket settles this market on the source its rules name. Sources named in the rules: cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsrr/vsrr043.pdf, cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/births.htm. Trading closes on 1 May 2027.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-us-births-in-2026-20261026033533965
Dates
Topic room
Read this market in context
What to watch in US Economy
- Each release in turn: the jobs report on the first Friday of the month, CPI a week or two later, GDP a month after each quarter ends
- Energy and shelter prices, the two parts of CPI that move the monthly print most
- Weekly jobless claims between reports