Analytics
Yes is at 12.5%, down 18 points from 30.5% when the market opened on 4 Feb 2026.
Across the 234 daily closes on record from 4 Feb 2026 to 29 Oct 2026 (34 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 67% on 8 Jun 2026 and the lowest 8.5% on 20 Feb 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 12.5%; a month before, 16.5%. Its largest one-day move was 36 points up, to 54% on 6 Jun 2026.
It is one of 17 markets under “Which companies will the US take a stake in?”.
$20 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $13.04K since listing. The order book holds $404.94, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 341 trades, $1.33K bought Yes and $2.99K bought No.
The largest Yes position is Optimus- with 579 shares; the largest No position is macrosteaks with 392. Ten wallets hold 65.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 29, 2:30 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 234 points, 4 Feb 2026 – 29 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Feb 2026 | 30.5% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | 12.5% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Optimus- | Yes | 578.62 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 426.46 |
| macrosteaks | No | 391.98 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in the listed company or of a legal vehicle that primarily owns the listed company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g. a sovereign wealth fund, state-owned enterprise, etc.) will count. Non-equity financial instruments or stakes acquired by private persons or entities not owned or controlled by the US federal government will not count; acquisitions by by states, pensions, index or mutual funds, or consortia will not qualify. An official US federal government announcement of a completed qualifying acquisition, or of a binding agreement to complete a qualifying acquisition, within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. Speculation, suggestions, plans, or other announcements which do not announce a completed acquisition or a binding acquisition agreement, however, will not count. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-companies-will-the-us-take-a-stake-in
5 more markets, none above 6.0%.
| DualDelta |
| Yes |
| 374.5 |
| ooops | No | 371.99 |
| Hyperlong | No | 338.87 |
| kittycat67 | No | 330 |
| Misty Harbor 2967 | Yes | 313 |
| probability | No | 298.09 |
| simulacrum3 | Yes | 250 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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