Room attention 23 · Liquid contention
Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 800B and 900B?$313.9 24hbid 24.0% · ask 43.0%$782.74 liquidity
Tariffs, export controls, sanctions, and policy-linked geoeconomic markets
LatestNo material change in Trade / Sanctions7m ago
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On Polymarket, “US x China tariff agreement by December 31?” trades at 89%, with $513 traded in the last 24 hours. Vultax links 2 markets to Tariffs and sanctions, which traded $827 together over the same period. Prices as of 16 Sep 2026, 20:29 UTC.
| Market | Chance | 24h volume | Liquidity | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x China tariff agreement by December 31? | 89% | $513 | $49.9K | 1 Jan 2027 |
| Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 800B and 900B? | 43% | $314 | $783 | 28 Feb 2027 |
Price changes in probability points, measured on Polymarket’s own trade history for the room’s busiest markets. A market whose history does not reach back over a window is left out of that window rather than shown against a shorter one.
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
This room follows the Polymarket markets Vultax links to trade policy: tariff levels and effective dates, trade agreements between governments, and sanctions on countries, companies and individuals. Each price is shown with its 24-hour volume and resting liquidity.
Trade markets often hinge on the difference between an announcement and implementation. A tariff that is announced but paused, or a deal agreed in principle but not signed, can resolve differently depending on the market's wording.
Each market resolves on its own written rules, including the deadline, the resolution source and what counts as the event. Two markets on the same subject with different wording can and do trade at different prices, so read the rules on the market page before comparing them.